St. Louis Rams: A Brief History of Tenth Overall Picks

When it comes to the NFL draft, the chances of getting a pick right is almost 50-50. Since 2002 and until 2012 43% of first round picks have bust. Analysts and teams put it a ton of research into these players, but at the end of the day, sometimes they are better off flipping a coin.

Tomorrow night, the St. Louis Rams will have the tenth overall pick, and while they may have a few top players in mind, at ten, some of them might already be gone. Here is a history of tenth overall picks.

2015 – Rams – ?

2014 – Detroit – TE Eric Ebron

2013 – Tennessee – OG Chance Warmack

2012 – Buffalo – CB Stephon Gilmore

2011 – Jacksonville – QB Blaine Gabbert

2010 – Jacksonville – DT  Tyson Alualu

2009 – San Francisco – WR  Michael Crabtree

2008 – New England – LB Jerod Mayo

2007 –  Houston – DT Amobi Okoye

2006 – Arizona – QB Matt Leinart

2005 – Detroit – WR Mike Williams

2004 – Houston – CB Dunta Robinson

2003 – Baltimore – LB Terrell Suggs

2002 – Cincinnati – T Levi Jones

The St. Louis Rams have had the tenth overall pick just once back in 1993 when they took rookie of the year running back Jerome Bettis. Bettis was a good player in St. Louis and went on to Pittsburgh to be a great running back and eventually win a Super Bowl.

We can only hope the Rams dont go ahead and surprise us all by picking Todd Gurley with the tenth overall pick, but here are some takeaways from the tenth overall pick since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002.

While every draft is different there are some scary trends here. One being the quarterback. The Rams, as many as some may not like it, could take a quarterback if Mariota or Winston are there. However, the two quarterbacks taken at ten in the last 15 years are Blaine Gabbert and Matt Leinart and we all know how their careers went.

One other take away is that there hasn’t been great success when it comes to drafting play makers. The Lions have had trouble thus far with Ebron and had trouble with Mike Williams. Crabtree, although he made plays, never lived up to the tenth overall pick.

Where this might come in play is that the Rams have been connected to Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and DeVante Parker. Those players may end up doing great things, but history suggests that wide receivers at ten dont usually pan out.

However, here comes some ok news. In the last 15 years, two offensive lineman have been drafted, Jones and Warmack. While Jones, a tackle, was a bust, Warmack, a guard, was the 24th best guard in the NFL last season and had the 15th best run grade on Pro Football Focus.

The Rams have been connected to Brandon Scherff and Andrus Peat. Scherff projects to be a guard in the NFL while Peat projects to be a tackle. Take what you will, but history suggests that the inside player in Scherff is the safer bet at ten.

Of the players drafted since 2002, and disregarding Ebron last year, 50% of the players have turned out to be busts. Literally a flip of a coin. It has been 22 years since the St. Louis Rams have selected tenth overall and there is no question that this years draft is a big one for the Snead/Fisher era. They will need to get it right Thursday night.

Next: Five Potential Picks For the St. Louis Rams

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