Will St. Louis Rams’ Tavon Austin link with Case Keenum?

Unsurprisingly, much of the discussion around the St. Louis Rams this week has been around the decision to bench starting quarterback Nick Foles in favor of backup Case Keenum. Rams fans will hope this brings a much-needed boost to an offense that has been bitterly disappointing on the whole this season.

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Head coach Jeff Fisher’s men rank last in the league on third down conversions at 24% and this is by some margin, being the only team below 30%. The team is tied for 30^th with Dallas averaging just over 18 points scored per game, 28^th in offensive penalties conceded, 31^st in yards per game and 28^th in average time of possession per game. Even the most die-hard fan cannot deny the frailties and flaws that have been in abundance when the Rams have the ball.

That said, the offense has not been without a few isolated highlights. One of these has been the instant impact of rookie running back Todd Gurley. The other has been the increase in the role and production of third year receiver Tavon Austin.

Until this season. With just nine games played, Austin has already scored seven touchdowns receiving, rushing and kick returns combined, exceeding the six he scored in his rookie season. He leads the team with 14 receiving first downs and with 305 receiving yards and he is just 12-yards behind front runner Kenny Britt.

Nov 8, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; St. Louis Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin (11) carries the ball during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

So will Austin’s role change with the introduction of a new quarterback? It goes without saying that the rapport between quarterback and receiver is very much an individual relationship, and accordingly receivers who thrive with one signal caller can flounder when paired with another.

The styles and strengths of Nick Foles and Case Keenum differ greatly. Foles was brought in to be a game manager – to hand the ball off to Todd Gurley and use play action to get the ball out on short drops to Tavon Austin. Keenum relies much more on his feet, seeking to get the ball down the field.

Breaking down the numbers, Foles completion rate this year of 36.4% on passes between 31 and 40 yards is his lowest. Compare this to Keenum’s rate of 70.6% over the same range in 2014 – which happens to be his highest. Foles has looked wildly inaccurate going downfield this year, at times looking desperate that his preferred targets in the shorter range are unavailable. This has translated into poor production from the ‘true’ deep threat wide receivers such as Kenny Britt and Brian Quick.

With the more expansive Keenum now calling the plays, expect to see the numbers from the receivers increase. Does this mean that Austin’s production will drop off accordingly? Is there a danger that Austin will be overlooked as the naturally more dynamic Keenum gets his eyes downfield towards Quick and Britt? Possibly.

Even if Keenum’s preference is to look downfield but finds his primary targets covered, Austin can still be used as a check-down on the second read. Also, there is the likely continuation of Austin’s contribution in both the run game and on special teams. If Frank Cignetti has brought anything to this Rams offence, it is the realisation of what can be achieved when Austin get his hands on the ball. Will Austin see less action with the change of quarterback? The answer, with caution, is likely to be no.