Apr 25, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Wide receiver Tavon Austin (West Virginia) is introduced as the eighth overall pick of the 2013 NFL Draft by the St. Louis Rams at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Tavon Austin is already up against some pretty lofty expectations since being drafted with the #8 overall selection in the 2013 draft.  Being taken in the top ten of the NFL Draft will always come with high expectations, the fact that the Rams traded up from the 16th to the 8th spot in order to select Austin doesn’t help either.  Then there is the fact that Austin was the first “skill position” player taken in the 2013 draft and all of a sudden the spotlight burns pretty brightly on the young kid out of West Virginia University.  Austin is being touted as the odds on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year for the 2013 season as well.  If you are a Rams fan than surely by now you have read dozens of articles about the impact Austin could have on the Rams offense.  You have probably watched every highlight reel you could find on YouTube and are keeping your fingers crossed that Austin can translate what he did at WVU to the NFL.  So what is a reasonable expectation for the dynamic receiver/runner/returner in his rookie season? 

The guys over at numberFire decided to throw some numbers together to help quantify reasonable expectations for Austin in his rookie season.  The article can be viewed here, and is actually quite interesting so I recommend giving it a look.  They essentially used some complex analytics to try to compare Austin’s NFL Combine numbers (DeSean Jackson and Calvin Johnson are the top two matches) to other recent WRs to find the closest match.  They then took into consideration the teams and the players expected role within that team and narrowed down the previous list a little more.  Eventually they had compiled a list of 6 players from which to base their projections from. 

When all was said and done their complex analysis projects Tavon Austin to be among the top 20-25 wide receivers of 2013.  His combined statline is projected to be 59 receptions for 961 total yards and 8 total TDs.  I am sure that a majority of Rams fans would be quite pleased with this level of production out of Austin but as I look at the numbers I just have one question, do these numbers take into account Austin’s potential role in the running and return game?  Based off of the very limited knowledge of the process used to project these numbers I would guess not, so what I want to know is do the guys over at numberFire have a three-part projection in mind?  These sorts of projections are mostly a way to fill time between now and the regular season, but I for one would be interested in seeing what the other two parts of the projection could possibly look like. 

Thanks for reading and as always, Go Rams!!!

Nov. 25, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: St. Louis Rams wide receiver (13) Chris Givens catches a touchdown pass under pressure from Arizona Cardinals safety (31) Justin Bethel in the third quarter at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Rams defeated the Cardinals 31-17. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The St Louis Rams were already one of the youngest teams in the NFL in 2012, and they managed to get even younger over the offseason.  The team also managed to get considerably faster on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense.  After watching the NFL draft and reading all of the post draft coverage on the Rams selections something occurred to me, for the second straight year a majority of the Rams draft class is expected to make significant contributions their rookie season.  The youth movement is in full swing in St. Louis for sure.  The other thing that hit me was the speed that the Rams were adding to their roster through the draft, after already adding the speedy tight end Jared Cook in free agency.  I thought it would be interesting to put together a chart of the Rams skill position players that shows their ages and 40 yard dash times (40 times taken from nfldraftscout.com). 

 Not surprisingly Bradford turned in the slowest 40 time of the bunch, but at 4.7 seconds his time is pretty good for the position.  In the 2013 scouting combine 13 QBs recorded 40 yard dash times, the fastest time was 4.59 seconds by Geno Smith and the slowest was 5.11 seconds by Landry Jones.  If Bradford had participated at the 2013 scouting combine he would have turned in the 4th fastest time and would have easily been ahead of the average time of 4.86 seconds.  As the read option quarterbacks were stealing the show last season it became easy for people to forget just how good of an athlete Sam Bradford really is.  One thing that is surprising is how much faster Isaiah Pead’s 40 time was compared to Daryl Richardson’s, as many people see Richardson as the speed back in the Rams offense.  The Rams offense has 3 skill players (2 WR 1 RB) that run a sub 4.4 40 yard dash, that type of speed should allow the Rams to find favorable matchups all over the field.  At 4.57 seconds Lance Kendricks has the second slowest time for the Rams skill players, but of the 14 TEs who ran the 40 at the 2013 NFL combine only one player posted a faster time (4.5 by Arkansas TE Chris Gragg).  Kendricks’ running mate Jared Cook boasts one of the most impressive combinations of size and speed in the NFL regardless of position, and at 26 years old he is just entering his prime.  If you haven’t watched a highlight reel on Jared Cook I highly recommend it, perhaps no player on the Rams offense (outside of Tavon Austin) has as much big play potential.  Cook is a matchup nightmare as he is both too large AND too fast for most cornerbacks to cover him, and linebackers and safeties don’t stand a chance one on one. 

The Rams have managed to put together an offense brimming with impressive athletes and incredible potential.  Unfortunately for the Rams there isn’t one player on the roster that is a “proven” player since Steven Jackson departed for the Atlanta Falcons.  The Rams have one of the better coaching staffs in the NFL and if they can develop their young talent the sky is the limit for this Rams offense.  Even with a top-notch coaching staff the Rams offense will undoubtedly experience some “growing pains” in 2013, but they should also produce some great highlight reel moments and finally generate some media buzz.  Thanks for reading and as always Go Rams!!!

November 11, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (8) argues with umpire Garth DeFelice (53, left) during overtime against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. The 49ers and the Rams tied 24-24. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The St Louis Rams have been an embarrassing football team for nearly a decade, ever since the end of the “Greatest Show on Turf” days the Rams franchise has struggled.  The franchise has struggled at every level; from ownership issues, to front office in fighting, to the parade of first time head coaches that were in over their head, this franchise has largely been the laughing-stock of the NFL.  Sam Bradford was selected with the first overall choice in the 2010 NFL Draft, and has been a polarizing figure among St Louis Rams fans and media pundits alike.  For Rams fans it seems either you believe Bradford is an immensely talented quarterback destined to lead the team back to relevance, or you believe he was an over rated player coming out of Oklahoma University and should be considered a draft bust.  There has been no shortage of excuses used to defend Bradford over the past 3 years, but the simple excuses don’t do justice to the situation that Bradford inherited and has been expected to excel in.  Make no mistake, Bradford’s situation has improved dramatically since his rookie season and if his performance doesn’t improve the Rams may need to move on.  This may or may not be a “make or break” year for the young signal caller, but here is a fairly comprehensive list of the reasons behind the Heisman Trophy winners fairly pedestrian professional career so far.

Ownership/Front Office.  Ever since the St. Louis Rams won Superbowl XXXIV the franchise has been in a steady state of decline.  I know what you are thinking, don’t you mean ever since they lost Superbowl XXXVI?  While losing to the New England Patriots in one of the greatest upsets in NFL history was a devastating blow, the end truly began after the Rams won the Lombardi Trophy.  The retirement of Dick Vermeil after the Rams defeated the Tennessee Titans is what I consider to be the beginning of the end for what could have been a great Rams dynasty.  The Rams may have been even more talented during the 2000-2002 seasons, but the switch from Dick Vermeil to Mike Martz made them a worse football team.  The trio of Jay Zygmunt, John Shaw and Mike Martz created a toxic environment in the Rams front office characterized by poor drafts and public feuds.  When Georgia Frontiere passed away in early 2008 the Rams were already well into their tailspin.

Coaching.  While the transition from Vermeil to Martz hasn’t directly impacted Bradford, the aftermath has certainly impacted his career.  After the Rams fired Martz following the 2006 season the parade of first time head coaches started with Scott Linehan.    From 2007 until Bradford was drafted in 2010 the Rams were coached by Linehan, Jim Haslett on an interim basis, and Steve Spagnuolo who was Bradford’s head coach during his first two seasons.  In the three seasons prior to Bradford’s arrival in St. Louis the Rams inexperienced head coaches accumulated a paltry 6 wins, yes their record was 6-42 under the Linehan-Haslett-Spagnuolo regime.  In Bradford’s first season he managed to take a team that went 1-15 the year prior under Spagnuolo to a 7-9 record and one game away from a division title.  Bradford’s rookie performance helped to earn Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur the job as head coach of the Cleveland Browns.  Unfortunately for Bradford the new offensive coordinator brought in to replace Shurmur was Josh McDaniels whose offense was completely different from the one employed by the Rams in his rookie season.  Picking up the new and incredibly complex offensive system that McDaniels wanted to run was another big hurdle for Bradford, not to mention that the Rams roster just wasn’t well suited for McDaniels’ system.  Then there was the high ankle sprain that Bradford sustained in the final minutes of the game against the Green Bay Packers, an injury that essentially derailed his sophomore season.  That injury in the final moments of a game that the Rams had no chance to win is the perfect symbol for how the Spagnuolo regime was in way over its head.

Draft Position/Rookie Wage Scale. Sam Bradford just happens to be the last #1 overall draft choice under the old rookie wage scale.  For his personal finances that happened to be a stroke of good luck, for his reputation around the league though it may be just the opposite.  Being given such a ridiculous amount of money to be the quarterback of the future for the Rams has put a huge spotlight on Sam.  Bradford is constantly compared to other young quarterbacks in terms of production versus salary, which quite frankly puts him at an obvious disadvantage.  When you factor in Bradford’s relatively high salary and the meager offensive talent that he has had to work with since entering the NFL it isn’t exactly giving him a fair shake.  The comparisons for Bradford became even tougher when the Rams decided to trade away the second overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, a pick that was used by the Washington Redskins on dynamic QB Robert Griffin III.  Bradford and Griffin will now forever be linked, and with the impressive rookie season that RGIII had the pressure is definitely on for Bradford to produce at a high level.  Of course the Rams were choosing Bradford and the huge amount of draft capital the Redskins traded away, and not just picking Bradford over RGIII, still many in the media will continue to question the decision until Bradford realizes his potential.

Team Talent.  The only player that the Rams have drafted over the last decade to make the Pro Bowl is Steven Jackson.  The Rams not only drafted poorly prior to Bradford’s arrival, but they also made very poor moves in free agency (I’m looking at you Drew Bennett).  The Rams had been nearly devoid of talent for the better part of the last decade, just ask the franchise’s all time rushing leader Steven Jackson.  Since Bradford arrived in 2010 his top receivers have been Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson, Brandon Lloyd, and Chris Givens who was a rookie in 2012 and yet still managed to have the most receiving yards in a single season during Bradfords first three seasons.  While I am a big fan of Amendola he was rarely available at full strength, and I believe Chris Givens has a bright future for the Rams but no rookie WR should be your first option.  Then there is the offensive line, which has not only been one of the least talented offensive lines in the NFL but also on of the most injured units during Bradford’s tenure.

Summary.  Bradford came into the NFL in 2010 inheriting perhaps the worst situation of any rookie QB in NFL history.  While Bradford has largely underwhelmed, the extreme circumstances that he has been asked to perform under should at the very least merit a little compassion.  The situation has changed however, the Rams now have a very stable ownership situation, a veteran head coach that is one of the best in the NFL, and a roster that is stocked with young talent thanks to the draft savvy of Les Snead and Jeff Fisher.  Bradford is finally entering an NFL offseason program with the same offensive coordinator and QB coach, a multitude of explosive offensive weapons, and a talented offensive line.  I am a big Bradford fan and I would love nothing more than to say that I see big, big things for him in 2013.  The one reason I am nervous about the upcoming season is the lack of experienced playmakers for Bradford.  The Rams roster is flush with potential at nearly every position, but there are very few proven playmakers on the roster.  The development of young players such as Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey will be crucial to the Rams offense and Sam Bradford’s ability to showcase his impressive skill set in 2013.  This may not be a make or break season for Bradford, but if he doesn’t take another large step forward this season it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Snead and Fisher draft a QB with one of their two first round picks in 2014.  So what do you think, is Bradford a victim of circumstance or an over rated and over payed player who will never live up to expectations?  Thanks for reading and as always, Go Rams!!!