Since the new rookie wage scale was introduced, the NFL Draft has turned from “mock-friendly” to a flea-market of trades and deals. The St. Louis Rams have fully embraced that change, trading down twice in the 2012 Draft and then trading out of both the 16th and 22nd spot yesterday. Less money for player and more ease in trades sets up the Draft for a number of  ”WTF” moments. Here are a handful from yesterday:

Miami Dolphins Take Dion Jordan 3rd Overall

When the announcement was leaked that the Miami Dolphins had traded up to take the Oakland Raiders spot at 3rd overall, the entire world saw “Lane Johnson” written all over the pick. When the commissioner announced Dion Jordan, everyone took a brief pause, including John Gruden…

The Entire Bills And Rams Trade Scenario

Throughout the day yesterday, the Buffalo Bills were blowing smoke that they might take Tavon Austin with the 8th overall pick. There were also rumblings that the New York Jets, who also held two 1st rounders, would bite on the WVU star if he fell to 9th in the draft. However, Snead and Co. decided to do a re-take of the Julio Jones trade in Atlanta, skyrocketing up the board from 16th to 8th and nabbing Austin before anyone else got a shot at him. However, the Austin pick was not the most intriguing of the two! With the 16th pick, the Bills chose to take the first, and only, quarterback in the 1st round… E.J. Manuel. The expression on Geno Smith’s face said it all.

The 19th and 20th Picks

“Short-armed,” lacks ideal size,” and “doesn’t respond well to sudden moves” are not attributes you want to describe your brand new offensive tackle, but that did not stop the New York  Giants from taking Justin Pugh with their 1st round pick yesterday. He is a versatile player, but would have likely been available in the mid- to late-2nd round. However, it only took one pick for everything to forget about the Giants and whip their attention to the Chicago Bears. Kyle Long, the brother of Chris Long on the St. Louis Rams, was projected as a 2nd rounder, with the potential to swing up into the late-1st. Apparently the Bears were not willing to wait, biting on the “high-ceiling” prospect before anyone else could even think about him…

Sharrif Floyd

You would be hard-pressed to find a mock where Floyd was not taken within the Top 15 in the 2013 NFL Draft, and yet, he was forced to sit “Aaron Rodgers-style” as his name dropped further and further down the draft board. The Minnesota Vikings stole the show on Thursday night, beginning by grabbing one of the top rated players in the draft at 23rd overall…

The Cowboys Being… Well, The Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys surprisingly went against their typical Jerry Jones-like style and traded back in the draft with the San Francisco 49ers in the 1st round. The ‘Boys are a team filled with holes, especially throughout the offensive line, but, more pressingly, on the defensive side of the football. With the 30th pick, the team was in prime position to take either Manti Te’o or their pick of Matt Elam or Jonathan Cyprien. Instead, they pick Travis Frederick… To be fair, Frederick was the top prospect at center on the majority of boards. However, he was also graded as a late-2nd to mid-3rd round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft…

Dec 23, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan reacts on the sidelines after the fumble was confirmed in overtime against the New Orleans Saints at Cowboys Stadium. The Saints beat the Cowboys 34-31 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

With most major coaching vacancies nearly filled and only two team still alive in the 2012 post- season, the offseason task of filling out the coaching roster has already begun for most teams.  A couple of weeks ago, “reports” began to drop that the St. Louis Rams had come to an agreement with ex-Cowboys’ DC Rob Ryan, making him the new defensive coordinator of the up-and-coming Rams. At the time, Ryan reportedly had denied those claims, stated that he was “on vacation” and hadn’t “spoken to anyone.” This week, Ryan had his formal interview with Jeff Fisher and the Rams, leaving the facilities without a contract, at least for now.

Naturally, the idea of a Ryan Brother in the locker room sparked some controversy among Rams Nation, seemingly divided between whether or not the flamboyant coach would be motivation or a distraction for the young St. Louis’ defense. Some worried about his recent history running a defense out of a 3-4 base, something that the St. Louis Rams’ roster is simply not built for right now. Others questioned his overall effectiveness as a defensive coordinator, marking his short stints in both Cleveland and in Dallas as enough to slap on the “overrated” label. It’s a fair question. Truly great coordinators typically only leave their jobs for head coaching spots, not because their services are no longer needed…

The most commonly dropped figures have been Ryan’s defenses’ rankings over the years, most notably points per game, turnovers, and yards per game. Mike Sando, the ESPN columnist for the NFC West, dropped some cumulative rankings for the defenses that Ryan has coached in the NFL. At first glance, you can see that the St. Louis Rams’ defense of this past season was far superior in nearly all categories to any of those three teams. In the most important defensive statistic, points per game, a Rob Ryan defense has never finished any higher than 15th in the league, ranging anywhere from 29th with the Oakland Raiders (2004-2008) to 15th with the Cleveland Browns (2009-2010).

However, simply looking at defensive rankings is not a good indicator of Rob Ryan as a coach. To truly gauge his impact, we should look at the performance differential from year to year with his teams. For the most part, aside from coordinators being promoted, the hiring of new members coaching staff means that the team was under-performing overall. So, naturally, the defenses that Rob Ryan has taken over for haven’t exactly been the most stout. We’ll start off by looking at his Oakland Raider defenses, stretching back all the way to 2004.

In my mind there are only a handful to truly “key” statistics on the defensive side of the football: Points allowed, Yards/Game, 3rd Down %, Defensive Penalties, Time of Possession, and Turnovers (Fumbles and Interceptions). In 2003, the year before Ryan was hired as the the defensive coordinator, the Raider gave up nearly 380 points throughout the season, while committing 115 penalties. In 2004, the Raiders were actually worse in nearly every statistical category, including giving up 442 points and forcing 12 fewer turnovers from the previous season. In 2005, Ryan’s sophomore season as the defensive coordinator, the team seemed to “buy into the system.” The Raiders gave up significantly fewer points (-59 points from ’04), yards per game (-40.2 yards), and forced 36 turnovers (+12 turnovers). In 2006, the fairy tale defense only got stronger, putting up the best defensive numbers for the Oakland Raiders in nearly a decade. They played discipline football, committing only 85 penalties after accumulating at least 100 in the previous three seasons. More importantly, they allowed only 332 points, 100 points fewer than in his first season as defensive coordinator, and allowed under 300.0 yards per game to opposing offenses. To put that in perspective of this year, only the Pittsburgh Steelers  allowed fewer yards per game, only four teams had fewer penalties, and only 10 teams gave up few points.

However, in 2006 the Oakland Raiders fired then-head coach Art Shell, handing the reins of the organization to Lane Kiffin, who became the youngest head coach in Raiders’ franchise history, and was, at the time, the youngest head coach in the NFL. On top of that retrospectively bad hire, Al Davis and Kiffin used the Raiders’ first overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft on JaMarcus Russell. Hindsight is 20/20, but looking back at that draft class, the Raiders missed the opportunity to grab Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch, and Darrelle Revis; all of which were taken in the Top 15 after Oakland had made their selection.

Despite the defense forcing 27 turnovers, the Raider’s would finish out the 2007 season with a -11 turnover differential, including a league-high 42 fumbles. As a result, the defense took a step back, allowing 398 points on the season. Sadly, the 2008 season, which would be Ryan’s last in Oakland, was not much better. The team fired Lane Kiffin on October 1st, promoting the then-offensive line coach, Tom Cable, to interim head coach. The offense was one of the worst in the league, averaging a mere 272.2 yard per game and amassing only 263 points throughout the season. Ryan would be let go at the end of the season, making his way to Cleveland.

In 2009, the Browns had just relieved Romeo Crennel of his head coaching duties, bringing in Eric Mangini as head coach and George Kokinis as general manager (although that only lasted until Week 8 of the regular season). Needless to say, the opening year of Ryan’s tenure was less than stellar. However, in 2010, his second season with the Browns, their defense saw significant improvements. Coincidentally, that was also the first time that the Browns had sunk significant time and money into a position other than the quarterback. They picked up D’Qwell Jackson off of free agency and traded for Scott Fujita from the New Orleans Saints and for both Sheldon Brown and Chris Gocong from Philadelphia. On top of that, Cleveland used their first two picks in the 2010 NFL Draft on T.J. Ward and Joe Haden. With the revamped squad, the Browns’ defense was one of the best of Ryan’s career, allowing only 332 points, decreasing their allowed yards per game by nearly 40 yards, and cutting their defensive penalties from 101 to only 85 from 2009 to the 2010 season.

However, even with the visible improvement on both the offensive and defensive side of the football, the Brown dumped Eric Mangini after his second season, handing the reins to ex-St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur (who has since been fired, as well). Dick Jauron took over for Rob Ryan, who was promptly given the defensive coordinator position in Dallas.

Ryan went where his services were desperately needed, on a Cowboys team that gave up 436 points in 2010 and allowed over 350 yards per game to opposing offenses. A relative turnaround in Dallas did not take long, allowing only 347 points in following season, and staying below the 350 yards per game allowed mark. In 2012, the Cowboys continued to trend in that position direction, until a wave of injuries swept through the Cowboys defense, including Bruce Carter and Sean Lee to IR, and having to deal with an injured DeMarcus Ware for a majority of the season. On top of it all, the Cowboys offense was hot-and-cold throughout the season, personified by the constantly trending “Romo-ing” to describe the ill-timed interceptions thrown by Tony Romo throughout the season. Marred by a defense pressed with the consistently bad field position, a severely depleted linebacking core, and a dysfunctional owner and head coach, Ryan was dismissed at the end of the season, where he remains unemployed to this day, at least for now.

Rob Ryan has not been a defensive mastermind by any stretch of the imagination, but he has fared well in rebuilding a pathetic defense into a respectable squad of players. Ryan has been plagued by dysfunctional front offices throughout his career, starting with Al Davis in Oakland and ended with Jerry Jones in Dallas. As a defensive coordinator in the NFL, Ryan has never had the same head coach for more than two consecutive seasons, which has led to drastic turnover in the coaching staffs, game planning, drafting, and inevitably, the players on the field. Still, he has been able to steadily improve the defenses of every team that he been apart of so far in his career. With a grounded organization, having stability in both in the front office and at head coach, and with a defense that is already well within the upper tier of league, there is no telling how Rob Ryan would fare…

Here are the numbers that were referenced throughout the article:

Note that the figured in parentheses are negative changes in performance, with the exception of those calculations relating to turnovers (i.e. fumbles and interceptions).  Also, only the highlighted years are one in which Rob Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the teams (i.e. Ryan was not the DC of the Oakland Raiders in 2003).

Where We Started

Ramblin’ Fan started dropping playoff breakdowns after the win over the Arizona Cardinals, before the Rams faced off against the San Francisco 49ers for the second time. At that point in the season, the St. Louis Rams were ranked 12th in the NFC. The Rams were two games behind the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks, meaning that those teams would have to lose twice, assuming St. Louis continued to win, to drop below the Rams in the rankings.  The Cowboys, Saints, and Redskins all had a one game advantage over the Rams. One interesting note from the original playoff outline was that we had given the NFC East to the New York Giants, while assuming that the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers would continue to win their way into the playoffs. However, Chicago and New York both have failed to capitalize on their divisional leads, sinking them back in the Wild Card mix. We will get to that later though…

Where Are We Now?

Although the St. Louis Rams have continued to win, a majority of the other “original six” teams  have done the same. The Rams are currently ranked 10th in the NFC, jumping the Saints in Week 13 after their loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and surpassing the Buccaneers this week following their two game losing streak. More importantly, the Rams are within one game of bypassing the Vikings, Cowboys, and Redskins, which would put St. Louis in the 7th spot in the rankings. The Rams are now only two games behind the Seahawks, Bears, and Giants, and three games behind the Packers and 49ers.

The Road Ahead

From the very beginning of the playoff talks, we have said that the Rams control their own destiny in the playoff hunt, and that is still very much true… to a point. The St. Louis Rams have always needed some of the other teams to lose in order for them to climb up the standings, naturally. Now, St. Louis needs much more specific teams to start losing, and quickly. Luckily, there are some tough game for the remaining teams that are boxing the Rams out of the 6th spot in the NFC. Here are their remaining schedules, including Chicago and New York:

New York Giants: @Atlanta, @Baltimore, Philadelphia

Chicago: Green Bay, @Arizona, @Detroit

Seattle: @Buffalo, San Francisco, St. Louis 

Minnesota: @St. Louis, @Houston, Green Bay

Washington: @Cleveland, @Philadelphia, Dallas 

Dallas:  Pittsburgh, New Orleans, @Washington

Looking Into The Crystal Ball

Realistically, there is no telling how the final three games of the season are going to play out. Personally, I didn’t see Chicago taking a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, especially the way that Christian Ponder has been playing in the last two quarters of the season. No one outside of the Tampa Bay area, and likely no one there either, saw the Buccaneers dropping one to Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles. And, with RGIII sidelined with a nasty-looking leg injury, who would have thought Kirk Cousins would rally the Redskins to a win over the Baltimore Ravens?

However, for the most part, you can make some fairly educated guesses to how the rest of the season might play out. Starting from the bottom of the list, it is not hard to see Dallas losing to any one of their remaining three opponents, any of which would drop them below the Rams, assuming St. Louis can “win out.”

Washington will have a tough time playing in Cleveland, believe it or not, against a team that has quietly won three straight games and looks to be coming together on offense behind three rookies at the key skill positions (QB Weeden, RB Richardson, WR Gordon). The game against Dallas could easily swing either way, with the Redskins scraping by in a 38-31 win in Week 12. And, a loss in either of those would likely see their way out of the playoff race.

Minnesota, clearly, has the toughest road into the playoffs, having to play St. Louis and Houston on the road before returning home to play Green Bay. The St. Louis Rams could, and should, finish off the quarterback-less Vikings on Sunday, having played well against run-oriented offenses so far this season. If not, the Texans and Packers should both hand Minnesota a loss, although if the Rams can’t take home a win this week, their playoff dreams are all but over.

Seattle is the most interesting of them all, especially considering there is a potential repeat of the 2010 Week 17 game between the Seahawks and Rams. That season, the 7-8 St. Louis Rams, lead by rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, flew in to face the 6-9 Seattle Seahawks. Seattle would go on to win that game, taking home the NFC West divisional crown, and upsetting the New Orleans Saints in the first round before exiting the playoffs in the second round. This season would be the, almost, reverse scenario, with a 8-6-1 Rams squad heading into Seattle to play a 9-6 Seahawks team. The winner would not take home the division, but would likely earn one of the two Wild Card spots. In order for the to happen, St. Louis will need either Buffalo or San Francisco to beat the ‘Hawks before the Rams get a swing at them in Week 17. Clearly, the 49ers have the best shot at helping the Rams, having already beat Seattle 13-6 in a Week 7 defensive showdown. By that time, Seattle will likely be without both Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, their top two corners, which may bode well for San Francisco and, consequently, the St. Louis Rams.

In The End…

Just like last week, the Rams need to take the remainder of the season week-by-week. The Rams will need a little bit of help to get into the playoffs, but, for the most part, St. Louis can control it’s own destiny by continuing to win games. The Vikings are the next obsticle for the Rams, and with Adrian Peterson having an MVP-esque year, St. Louis should have more than enough to think about this week without worrying about the potential playoff routes.