December 2, 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs is just around the corner, this is typically the best weekend of playoff football because there are still 4 games to watch and they involve 8 of the best teams in the NFL.  Since the games involve the best of the best, the are almost always “instant classics” that are sure to entertain whether you are a fan of those teams or not.  This year 3 out of four games in the divisional round will be a rematch of a game from the regular season, so the question is did the better team win in the first matchup?  Or has one team taken a significant step forward or backwards since their last meeting?  The only game that isn’t a rematch is the one taking place between the #1 seed Atlanta Falcons and the #5 seed Seattle Seahawks.  Before I go over each game I lets recap my record from last weekend, were I picked 3 of the games correctly only missing on the Seahawks victory over the Washington Redskins.  It looked like I would go 4-0 until the FedEx Field turf (or lack thereof) monster jumped up and bit RGIII late in the first quarter.

Ravens @ Broncos.  The Baltimore Ravens will hit the road to take on the Denver Broncos.  The Broncos are the AFC’s #1 seed and are riding the NFLs longest winning streak (11 games), in fact the last time the Broncos lost was in week 5 at New England.  The combined record of the 3 teams the Broncos lost to (Patriots, Falcons and Texans) is 37-11 with all of those losses coming during the early part of the season while Manning was still acclimating to a new offensive system and receivers.  The Ravens on the other hand are playing “win one for the Gipper” style football since Ray Lewis, their future first ballot Hall of Fame linebacker, announced his retirement the week before their wild card game.  The first time these two teams met (week 15) in Baltimore Ray Lewis was on the sidelines recovering from his torn triceps, a game that the Broncos won 34-17.  The Broncos are well rested following their bye week and have homefield advantage, they also have Peyton Manning playing some of the best football of his career.  If that wasn’t enough, they have an elite defense that finished the regular season in the top 5 in virtually every meaningful statistical category.  The Broncos appear to be the most well rounded and dangerous team in the playoffs, and there is no way I would bet against Manning,who had an MVP caliber season after missing all of last season recovering from 4 different surgeries on his neck, so I expect the Broncos to be hosting the AFC Championship game next weekend.   Broncos win 27 – 13.

Packers @ 49ers.  The San Francisco 49ers traveled to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 of the NFL season, and came away with a 30-22 victory that wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate.  A lot of things have happened to each of these teams since their week 1 showdown.  The Packers have had a rash of injuries on both defense and at receiver, with a constantly changing lineup that finally appears to be rounding back into the original starting lineup.  The 49ers made a change at quarterback following Alex Smith’s concussion during their week 10 tie with the St. Louis Rams.  Harbaugh has been heavily scrutinized since making the switch at quarterback, since Alex Smith was the NFL’s highest rated passer at the time he went down with a concussion.  Colin Kaepernick is certainly a little but more of an unknown than Smith is at quarterback, but his big play ability is the element of Smith’s game that Harbaugh apparently felt was keeping the 49ers from winning a Superbowl.  Since Week 11 when Kaepernick took over as the full time starter he and Aaron Rodgers actually have very similar statistics, including an identical win-loss record.  That is not to say I feel these quarterbacks are on the same level, as Rodgers is the leagues reigning MVP, has won a Super Bowl and also holds the all-time record for post season passer rating.  Clearly if this game turns into a track meet where the quarterbacks decide the game the advantage would rest with the Packers.  That may or may not happen, if Justin Smith is able to play at 90% (or higher) of his normal All-Pro level of play than the 49ers defense should have the upper hand.  However, if J.Smith isn’t effective on the defensive line the 49ers defense just isn’t the same, and it has shown since he left the prime-time game against the New England Patriots a few weeks ago.  J. Smith is the player that makes it all happen for the 49ers defense and he very well could be the most important player in this game.  In the end I don’t trust J. Smith to have recovered enough to be his usual disruptive self, and if he isn’t able to perform to his usual standards the reigning MVP should be able to find enough room to take his team to the NFC Championship game.   Packers win 24 – 21.

Seahawks @ Falcons. The Seahawks will try to become the first west coast team since the 1989 Rams to win consecutive east coast playoff road games.  That is a completely obscure statistic that has no bearing on this football game, except to say that it is difficult for west coast teams to go on the road across country and pickup a win against a playoff caliber opponent.  It has proven to be especially difficult for the Seahawks when they play on the east coast in the 1 pm ET slot, they have gone 1-11 over the past 5 years in such games.  I picked against the Seahawks last week largely because I thought that the road trip would catch up to them, and until RGIII became severely limited late in the 1st quarter it appeared that the Seahawks were going to get steamrolled.  Instead they took advantage of a limited Redskins offense and rallied back from 14 down to win 24-14, if they find themselves in a similar situation this weekend they probably wont be as fortunate.  Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have the leagues second best homefield record over the past 5 seasons (since Ryan was drafted) behind only the Patriots.  Of course the record that people are most familiar with is their 0-3 playoff record with Ryan, including a one and done as the #1 seed in 2010 when they lost the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.  The Seahawks appear to be a very tough draw for the Falcons with a red hot rookie QB and  an imposing defense that is capable of shutting down even the best offenses in the NFL.  One matchup to keep your eye on is the Seahawks cornerbacks versus the Falcons superstar wide receivers, if the Seahawks can leave their cornerbacks in one on one coverage against the Falcons without getting burned it will be a long day for Ryan.  One reason to believe in the Falcons receivers ability to win on the outside is the fact that the Seahawks are a below average pass rushing defense, and that was before they lost their best pass rusher in the wild card round.  The rules of the NFL favor the offense, especially when it comes to the wide receiver vs. cornerback matchup, so if the pass rush can’t get to Ryan he will pick apart the Seattle secondary even if it is one of the best in the NFL.  If Seattle can keep the game close and rely on their powerful running game they could pull this game out in the end, but if they can’t control the tempo and keep Ryan and the explosive Falcons offense off the field it will be a long flight back to the Pacific Northwest.   Falcons win 31 – 21.

Texans @ Patriots.  The last time these two played at Gillette Stadium the New England Patriots completely dominated the Houston Texans handing them just their second loss of the season 42-14.  That game was billed as the Texans chance to prove themselves as an AFC powerhouse on national television against the AFC’s most consistent power over the past decade, the game didn’t live up to its billing as the Texans fell behind early and were down 28-0 before breaking through on the scoreboard midway through the third quarter.  It is hard to imagine that the Texans will be so thoroughly embarrassed again since they are such a talented team but the Patriots will be welcoming back Rob Gronkowski (who missed the first matchup), who is one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league.  The key to this game for the Texans is not to let the Patriots open up a double digit lead on them, the Texans are not built to play catch up as they lack explosiveness on the offensive side of the ball.  The Texans are built around their running game and play action passing, so if they fall behind like last time they will have to abandon the running game and try to throw for the win.  I don’t expect this game to be as one sided as the previous matchup, but this is still a home playoff game for Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck so it is hard to imagine that the Texans can pull off the upset.     Patriots win 28 – 24.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) carries the ball during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Packers 37-34. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL Wild Card weekend is just around the corner and it features some pretty intriguing matchups.  Three different rookie quarterbacks have led their teams to the playoffs this season, and one of the wild card games features two of those rookies squaring off in what is likely to be the most talked about game of wild card weekend.  There are other interesting storylines for the weekend as the other rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck, goes on the road to take on Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens in what could be the legendary linebackers final NFL game.  Then there is the rematch of a week 17 classic between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers, this time with a change of venue and no season rushing record on the line.  There is plenty to be excited about as the NFL post season gets under way, even if the Rams didn’t qualify this year there is still some great football to look forward to.  Hopefully we improve on our pick percentage from last weekend, when we went 8-8 to finish the season with a 62% accuracy on picks which would be equivalent to a respectable 10 win season in the NFL.  Since there are only four games to discuss this weekend we will try to go into each matchup a little more in depth than usual, and hopefully come out on the plus side of .500 after the dust settles.

Bengals @ Texans.  The Houston Texans sputtered into the post season, going from a near lock for the #1 seed in the AFC to the 3rd seed and a wild card matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Matt Schaub will make his first career post season start at quarterback against second year player Andy Dalton.  Schaub will be under a lot of pressure to deliver a win and right the ship after the Texans lost 3 of their final four games, he will also be under a lot of pressure from the Bengals defensive line which finished 3rd in the NFL for sacks behind only the Denver Broncos and St. Louis Rams.  The Texans are built primarily to run the ball and and are very good at protecting a lead, they haven’t shown much ability to play catch up this season when they fall behind so they will try to establish Arian Foster early in the game.  On the other side Andy Dalton will have to deal with defensive player of the year candidate JJ Watt and his incredible combination of pass rushing and batting down passes, and he may have to do it without a fully healthy running game as BenJarvus Green-Ellis missed last weeks game with a hamstring injury.  The nod goes to the home team in this one, even though the Bengals seemingly have the momentum the Texans have the better all around team.   Texans win 24 – 20.

Vikings @ Packers.  Adrian Peterson came up 9 yards short of the NFL single season rushing record last weekend as the Minnesota Vikings chose to kick a field goal from to 10 yard line instead of giving him one last shot at the record.  Since the end of the game Peterson has been quoted as saying he is coming for Dickerson’s record, in the history of the NFL no player has ever had multiple 2,000 yard seasons but I wouldn’t bet against Peterson after what he accomplished this season.  Peterson may need to set his sights on another record held by Dickerson if the Vikings are to win this weekend, that being the record for most rushing yards in a playoff game.  Dickerson rushed for 248 yards in 1985 against the Dallas Cowboys, Peterson averaged 204 yards rushing in his two games against the Packers this season so that record isn’t safe this weekend.  On the other side the Packers appear to finally be getting healthy again as Charles Woodson is likely to return to the lineup, which would be a big boost to the Packers defense.  In the end Aaron Rodgers is one of the 3 best quarterbacks in the league, and Christian Ponder is a huge question mark.   Packers win 27 – 17.

Colts @ Ravens.  Rookie Andrew Luck has had an impressive season, even if the statistics don’t show it he has played very well on his way to becoming the first #1 overall draft pick to lead his team to the playoffs in his rookie season.  The +9 in the win column for the Colts this year is all you really need to know about how much he has impacted this team.  The other rookie signal callers in the playoffs have +5 (RGIII) and +4 (Wilson) in the win column this season.  The Ravens have suffered plenty of injuries on the defensive side of the ball this season, with the loss of Ray Lewis for a majority of the regular season, Terrell Suggs also hasn’t been the same player since returning from injury.  Even with Ray Lewis returning for this playoff game, this is not the same Ravens defense we have all come to expect during Lewis’ incredible run at MLB.  They are vulnerable and could be a favorable matchup for Luck and the Colts, which makes it tempting to pick the Colts here.  On the other hand the Colts defense has been near the bottom of the league all season, and Ray Rice should have a field day running the ball.  As long as Joe Flacco doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times the Ravens should be able to ride Rice into the divisional round of the playoffs.  Ravens win 20 – 14.

Seahawks @ Redskins.  The NFL has scheduled the best for last in this wild card weekend, the matchup between Russell Wilson and RGIII has drawn plenty of media attention as they become the first full time rookie QBs to face off in the playoffs.  The Seahawks will clearly have the advantage on defense, and probably the nod on the special teams units.  The Redskins have the advantage when it comes to offense and coaching.  Then there is the fact that this game is going to be played at FedEx Field making it harder and harder to go against the Redskins.  The Seahawks struggles on the road have been well documented this season, as they only one 3 games on the road this season and none against playoff teams.  As a Rams fan I can’t really root for either team to win, of course I want the Redskins to lose to provide the best draft pick possible from the trade, but I don’t think I could ever bring myself to root for the Seahawks under any circumstance.  I am confident that the Seahawks will have the better team on the field, but Pete Carroll has proven time and again that he can lose a game to an inferior opponent when matched up against even average head coaches.  It is a home game for the Redskins and they have an above average head coach, which should be enough to tip the scales in their favor in what should be a very close and entertaining football game.  Redskins win 27 – 21.

December 23, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (8) drops back to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The final week of the regular season is here and unfortunately there will be no post season for the St. Louis Rams.  The Rams were eliminated from the playoffs when the Minnesota Vikings upset the Houston Texans last weekend.  The Rams still went on the road and took down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to improve their record to 7-7-1 with a possibility to finish with their first winning record since 2003.  Last weekend I took some teams based on who I wanted to win instead of who I thought would win, and still went 12-4.  So hopefully the same pattern holds true this weekend.

Bucs @ Falcons.  The Bucs have a potent offense, if the can just keep Josh Freeman from turning the ball over so often.  The Falcons may be cruising as they have already clinched home field advantage for the playoffs.  Then again a history of early playoff exits may have them coming out and giving a full effort to avoid a letdown this post season. Falcons win 27 – 20.

Jets @ Bills.  Two teams that will be watching the playoffs from home this January.  The circus surrounding the Jets quarterback situation continues as Sanchez has been named the starter again.  The Bills get the nod as the home team. Bills win 21 – 20.

Ravens @ Bengals. The Ravens and Bengals have already sewn up wild card berths as AFC North champions and a wild card respectively.  This game wont even affect the playoff seeding, so I will go with the home team and the upstart Bengals to knock of their second consecutive AFC North rival.  Bengals win 23 – 17.

Bears @ Lions.  The Bears need to win this game and hope the Packers can take down the Vikings in order for them to make the playoffs.  If the Bears can’t at least take care of their own business it would cement a second half slide out of the playoffs for the second straight season.  Bears win 21 – 17.

Jaguars @ Titans.  The Jaguars and Titans have had disappointing seasons to say the least.  The Jaguars will get a big game from their big name rookie wideout and upset the Titans. The Jaguars win will secure the 2nd overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.  Jaguars win 17 – 10.

Texans @ Colts.  The Texans will travel to Indianapolis looking to bounce back after a surprise upset by the Vikings.  The Texans are still trying to secure the #1 seed and homefield advantage in the playoffs, while the Colts have little riding on the outcome of this game.  Texans win 27-20.

Panthers @ Saints.  Drew Brees is going to want to finish the season on a high note and avoid a sub .500 record.  The season hasn’t gone the way they wanted it to, but they are the more talented team and are always tough in the Superdome.  The Saints should put on a display in the last game played there before Super Bowl 47. Saints win 30 – 21.

Eagles @ Giants.  The Giants need to win this game, and get some help in order to make the playoffs and keep their chances of a repeat alive.  Nick Foles has gone onto the IR and it looks like Mike Vick will be playing QB for the Eagles in this one. Giants win 28 – 20.

Browns @ Steelers.  The Browns will be without Weeden and Richardson in this game, making the chance of an upset more remote.  It is hard to imagine the Steelers not taking this game at home.  Steelers win 17 – 14.

Chiefs @ Broncos.  The hottest team in the NFL will look to extend their league best win streak to 11.  The Broncos have also won 10 straight games by 7 or more points, the first time a team has done that since the 2005 Colts.  The Broncos still have an outside chance of getting homefield advantage for the playoffs, so look for Manning to have them out of the gates early.  Broncos win 35 – 13.

Packers @ Vikings.  The Packers have a chance to get a first round bye if they can put away the pesky Vikings.  Adrian Peterson is on a tear and is within striking distance of Eric Dickerson’s NFL record for single season rushing yards.  Here is hoping that the Packers get on top early and take Peterson out of the game plan. Packers win 31 – 14.

Dolphins @ Patriots.  The Patriots also still have a shot at a first round bye, and will probably be looking to fix the problems that lead to their poor start last weekend.  I expect the Patriots to overpower the Dolphins early then cruise late. Patriots win 30 – 13.

Raiders @ Chargers.  Two teams that really don’t have much to play for except for pride.  In a rivalry as old and heated as this one you can throw out the records.  The news that Pryor will be starting for the Raiders makes picking the Raiders more fun.  Perhaps Pryor displays some flashes of brilliance and gives Raider Nation hope for the future.  Raiders win 17 – 13.

Cardinals @ 49ers.  There is no way that the 49ers could possibly play as poorly as they did against the Seahawks last sunday night.  Sure the Seahawks are one of the NFLs hottest teams, but the 49ers didn’t even appear to show up for that game.  From the opening kickoff there was no energy or fire, look for them to come out hot early and sew up their second straight division title. 49ers win 30 – 10.

Rams @ Seahawks.  Sure the Seahawks are the hottest team in the NFL right now, and Century Link is one of the toughest stadiums for visiting teams in the NFL.  I still believe this Rams team is tough and determined to secure a winning season for Jeff Fisher during his first year.  Also Steven Jackson will etch his name into the record books even further as he only needs 10 yards for his 8th consecutive 1,000 yard season.  In the battle of Jeff Fisher vs. all other NFC West coaches, advantage goes the Fisher.  Rams win 23 – 16.

Cowboys @ Redskins.  I don’t necessarily want to pick the Cowboys in this game, but I really don’t want to see the draft pick the Rams will get from the Redskins get any worse than it already is so there you have it.  The Cowboys ha Cowboys win 31 – 27.