December 2, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) is pushed out of bounds by St. Louis Rams cornerback Cortland Finnegan (31) during the second half at the Edward Jones Dome. St. Louis defeated San Francisco 16-13 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last several years, we have seen a shift in the NFL away from the “feature” running back. Now, most teams have two or more running backs that split time rushing the football. This allows the coaching staff to plug-and-play the best player into the game in a given situation, all while keeping fresh legs in the backfield.

Similarly, offensives have also been shifting towards the wide receiver-by-committee approach, with less focus on snagging a true, No. 1 receiver, and more of a focus on selection multiple receivers, with differing skills sets that effect the game in different ways. While it is not as “mainstream” of a concept as the running backs, it is clearly being implemented all over the league, especially within some of the more “dynamic,” pass-oriented offenses.

The first teams that come to mind is Green Bay Packers, who ranked 9th in the NFL last season in passing offense. Yet, there were was not a single 1,000 yard receiver in the offense. Randall Cobb, the Packers’ utility back and slot receiver lead the team with 954 yards, although he was only the field for 651 offense snaps. James Jones was their “top receiver” clocking 1,023 offensive snaps, tacking on 784 yards. Next was Jordy Nelson (607 snaps, 745 yards), followed by Greg Jennings (435 snaps, 366 yards).

The New Orleans Saints were the leader in passing yards in 2012, yet, much like the Packers, did not have any single receiver dominate in any statistical category. Marques Colston was the leader of the corps, with an impressive 1,154 yards on 854 snaps. However, Lance Moore hauled in 1,041 yards on 623 snaps, and Jimmy Graham, who often took the field as an off-line tight end, piled on 982 yards on 712 snaps.

In Indianapolis, where the Colts ranked 7th in passing last season,  it was the same thing… Reggie Wayne was the front-runner with 1,355 yard on 1,099 snaps. But, in similar fashion, the next receivers racked up equally impressive numbers in their equivalent time on the field; T.Y. Hilton pulled in 861 yards on 682 snaps and Donnie Avery grabbed 781 yards on 1,044 snaps.

The formula was all the same, three to four wide receivers and pass-catching tight ends working by committee to dominate in the passing game. For the most part, those offenses were the most successful, with teams like New England , New Orleans, and Green Bay all finishing in the Top 5 in total points scored throughout the 2012 season.

Teams with a large discrepancy between their top receiver and the “next” receivers were not so successful. Calvin Johnson was far and away the leading receiver in the NFL last season, tallying an record setting 1,964 yards. The next receiver on the Detroit Lions’ was Titus Young… yes, that Titus Young… who managed only 383 yards. Consequentially, Detroit ranked 18th overall in passing touchdowns, and 17th overall in total points last year. Brandon Marshall was 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards last season, with 1,508 yards on 118 catches. The next best receiver in Chicago was Earl Bennett, with 375 yards. Much like the pattern in Detroit, the the Bears ranked 22nd in passing touchdowns, and 16th in overall points.

Naturally, there has to be some consideration made to the running game, especially on teams like Houston, who have a wide talent-gap between receivers, but also have a dominating running back. However, even in those cases, the figures hold true in overall scoring. Despite having a Top 5 receiver and a Top 5 running back, the Texans’ were outside the Top 5 in overall points last season. In Tampa Bay, Vincent Jackson ranked 5th in receiving yards and Doug Martin ranked 5th in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns; yet, the Buccaneers were 13th in overall points.

So, what does this mean for San Francisco?

Well, the 49ers’ were clearly a “wide talent-gap” team, with Michael Crabtree being the only receiver on the roster to clear the 1,000+ yards mark on the season. In fact, Vernon Davis, who primarily lines up as an in-line tight end, was second on the team in receiving yards, followed by the injury-riddled Mario Manningham. That gap was actually even wider after the shift to Colin Kaepernick, with over 65% of Crabtree’s receiving yards and an average of 2 more targets per game coming with the sophomore quarterback at the helm in the latter half of the season. What does that mean?

That means, with Michael Crabtree gone, the 49ers’ will be forced to try and attempt a receiver-by-committee approach in the passing game. The problem is, the grouping of players remaining on the roster are not built for that type of system. Anquan Boldin, A.J. Jenkins, Mario Manningham, and Quintin Patton are all essentially the same type of wide out… 6’0 tall, have a roughly 200 lbs. frame, and are primarily possession receivers with moderate speed and quickness. No speed mismatch. No height mismatch. Nothing.

To make matter worse, Kaepernick is not the type of quarterback that would fair well in a receiver-by-committee system, even if he had the roster to do it…

Michael Crabtree: targeted on nearly 40% of routes he ran from Weeks 11-17 with Colin Kaepernick as starter, 2nd in NFL in that span.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 22, 2013

Colin Kaepernick also rushed on 9.26% of his total dropbacks last season, behind only Robert Griffin and Michael Vick. The combination of those two statistics (high percentage of targets to a single player and high percentage of rushes) paints the exact picture of Kaepernick as a quarterback; first-option passer, second-option runner. In order for a quarterback to be successful in a receiver-by-committee system, he has to be a progression quarterback, willing to work through the second and third reads before firing the ball to the open receiver.

With Crabtree sidelined until, at least, Week 13, the San Francisco 49ers will be banking on one of three options to compete offensively next season: 1) their running game will be dominate enough to compensate for a lack of passing game, 2) one of the receivers will step up as the “replacement Crabtree” in the offense, or 3) Kaepernick will learn to play as a progression quarterback.

One of those three things might happen. Maybe, Boldin will return to mid-career form and be able to handle 8 to 10 targets per game. In Baltimore, Boldin was a slightly above average receiver during the regular season in 2012, with 921 yards on 902 offensive snaps; although, that was with Joe Flacco chucking the deep ball and Torrey Smith lining up on the other side of the field. For comparison’s sake, Michael Crabtree raked in 1,105 yards on only 692 snaps, with Vernon Davis as the only other legitimate receiving threat on the field. Maybe, Frank Gore will have an Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch-esque performance, propelling the ground game as the driving force of the offense. However, last season, Gore averaged only 4.1 yards per attempt with Colin Kaepernick as quarterback, down from 5.5 yards per carry under Alex Smith.

Chances are, we will see a drastic regression in the potency of the San Francisco 49ers’ offense in 2013. The 49ers were ranked 11th in the NFL in total points in 2012, with the 16th highest scoring ground game, but the 6th highest scoring receiving game. With Crabtree out, expect more and more defenses to stack the box against Frank Gore and Co., as well as devote more “spies” to follow Kaepernick, without the threat of a dominate receiver beating them down the field. The ’9ers defense will inevitably help deter the effects of this transformation, but the fact remains that teams still have to put points on the board to win games.

San Francisco had better hope that their young quarterback truly is “Superman” in 2013, because their offense will need a heroic effort to compensate for the loss of their “franchise” receiver.

Terrance Ganaway was drafted last season by the New York Jets in the 6th round out of Baylor where he was eventually cut before the season and was picked up off of waivers by the Rams. During his senior season at Baylor with RGIII under center, Ganaway had 250 carries for 1,547 yards and 21 touchdowns. Ganaway pulled out good stats against TCU, Missouri, and Washington where he rushed for 120, 186, and 200 yards. He also scored 8 touchdowns in those three games. However, Ganaway struggled against the good defenses of Kansas St. and Texas A&M where he only rushed for 72 yards on 29 carries and one touchdown.

Ganaway is 6’0 240 pounds and is that big punishing back that the Rams are missing now that Steven Jackson is gone. Ganaway is quick to hit his hole, but also has the patience to allow the play to develop, and once he hits his hole he has the ability to either run through the defender like Jackson did, or even make a move to make the defender miss.  He’s also is a reliable pass catcher. One thing scouts said about Ganaway was that he can play passive which is unusual given his size. Ganaway can get caught stutter stepping in the back field rather than hitting the hole with authority which is something Ganaway has to do to be successful. He has an incredible physical build, he just needs to use it.

Ganaway was drafted by the Jets in the 6th round before being released, which can be seen as a red flag because the Jets don’t have a standout running back.  Shonne Greene is not a bad running back as he has rushed for over 1,000 yards the last two season, but there was a stretch of four straight games where Greene failed to rush for more than 50 yards. With that said you have to be concerned as to why Ganaway couldn’t make that roster. Ganaway also scored the only touchdown for the Jets last preseason, therefore you just have to assume Ganaway just wasn’t the right fit for the Jets. There are always those players that fail to make some rosters then become superstars on others. A few examples being Arian Foster, Danny Amendola, and Kurt Warner.

Ganaway spent most of last season on the Rams practice squad, and was only on the active roster for three games, and even then he didn’t get any action. Ganaway has the potential to be a player  like a Peyton Hillis, Brandon Jacobs, or Steven Jackson given his build. He could surprise many people and be that hidden gem, Ganaway might have just needed an opportunity to shine. With the Rams having an open competition, this might be the best chance Ganaway ever gets to start, and he needs to take advantage.

It is highly unlikely the Rams keep four funning backs on the roster. Ganaway will have to beat out one of the Rams top three guys in order to not spend another season on the practice squad or get released. With Richardson showing promise last season, and Pead being taken in the second round it his highly unlikely that the Rams cut one of them. The final spot will end up going to either Zac Stacy or Ganaway, and the Rams just took Stacy in the 5th round of this year’s draft, therefore Ganaway might end up being the odd man out. Ganaway will be coming into camp as the big underdog, but with a year under his belt and an opportunity at his doorstep, Ganaway may just rise to the occasion. With Jeff Fisher as the coach, you know the best players are going to make the team and the best players are going to start. If Ganaway can prove during camp that he is the better player, then he has nothing to worry about.

Nov. 25, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: St. Louis Rams guard Harvey Dahl (62) and tackle Barry Richardson (79) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

From now until the start of the season, fans and analysts alike will be debating which players are primed for a breakout season in 2013. However, for every player that steps up into stardom, there is an equal or greater number of players that will inevitably regress.

In the field of psychology, there is a phenomenon called “regression to the mean,” which essentially means that “extreme” performance will typically be followed by performances closer to the average. For example, in 2010, Chris Johnson ran for 2,006 yards on the ground, one of the single greatest performances in the history of the NFL. The next year, he ran for an impressive 1,364 yards; a drop from the extreme end back towards the average for an upper-tier running back.

Naturally, there will be a handful of players on the Rams that take a step back from a stellar season in 2012. This could be from a number of things: attempting to follow an “extreme” performance, getting fewer opportunities due to new acquisitions, or even as a result of more talent around them on the roster. So, who might those players be for the St. Louis Rams this season?

Jo-Lonn Dunbar

Jo-Lonn Dunbar made a case for himself as a Pro Bowl player in 2012, showing competency in every area pertinent to a weakside 4-3 outside linebacker. Dunbar was excellent in the pass rush, tallying five sacks (5th among 4-3 OLB), five hits on the quarterback (5th), and nine hurries (7th). In coverage, Dunbar managed three pass deflections (6th) and 2 interceptions (5th), while allowing only 10.0 yards per reception (18th). Last, but most importantly, Dunbar was a monster on the ground, racking up 120 combined tackles (5th), all while making 62 defensive stops, the third most in the NFL, after only OLB Lavonte David (70) and ILB Derrick Johnson (72).

However, Dunbar could see his role as both a pass rusher and a coverage man decrease in 2013, following the drafting of Alec Ogletree. As of now, the St. Louis Rams have Ogletree slotted as the strongside linebacker on the roster; but, conventional wisdom would suggest he will play more of a weakside role, including remaining on the field in the nickel package. The regression of Dunbar might simply be the result of less opportunity on the field.

Lance Kendricks

The third year tight end has progressed in each of the last two season, including pulling in 41 receptions for 500 yards and four touchdowns last season. Kendricks finally rid himself of the “dropsies” of 2011, ending the 2012 season with an impressive 71.9% catch rate, up from 52.8% the previous year. He also provided his worth as a utility player, stepping in as the Rams’ No. 1 fullback on the depth chart after the departure of Brit Miller; in fact, he is still listed as the top fullback.

However, a tight ends’ worth is typically measured by their production on the field in the passing game. With the acquisition of Jared Cook as the pass catching tight end, as well as the drafting of Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, it is significantly less likely that Kendricks will see 60 targets in 2013. The St. Louis Rams figure to be running out of the spread more often in the coming year, meaning more frequent use of four and five receiver sets. More pass catchers on the field will inevitably lead to Bradford spreading the targets around, especially considering the Bradford-Kendricks’ combination never fully caught on in the past. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Kendricks see fewer targets and more snaps in the backfield this season, which will appear to the untrained eye as regression from the young tight end.

Harvey Dahl

Harvey Dahl has been one of the few constants on the St. Louis Rams’ offensive line over the last two seasons. However, Dahl is aging quickly and will be coming back from a torn bicep injury that sent him to the IR for the final two games of the regular season. In 2011, Dahl graded out as the 34th overall guard in the NFL, allowing 1 sacks, 2 hits on the quarterback, and 12 hurries. He essential matched that same number of pressures in 2012, albeit in two fewer games, all while grading out negatively as a run blocker.

Harvey Dahl specializes as a mauler in the run game, and has always been “average, at best” in terms of pass protection, even back in Atlanta. With the Rams likely switch to a more pass-friendly offense, Dahl could set career highs in pressures allowed on Sam Bradford. On top of playing in an offense that highlights his weak point in blocking, the Rams will also matchup against some of the most dominant pass rushing teams the NFL this season, with games against the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, and the Seattle Seahawks, twice; all of which ranked in the Top 10 last season (according to Pro Football Focus).