2020 LA Rams Salary Cap anatomy

Los Angeles enters the 2020 offseason with a priority to maneuver the NFL salary cap

The Los Angeles Rams have plenty of places to spend their salary cap dollars in 2020.  But the team will run out long before they fill their shopping list. That means foolhardy writers like myself have a golden opportunity to entertain fans with our knowledge, or lack thereof, of the annual “capology” article. Whether foolhardy, well-intended, or well informed, I will not shy away from the chance to at least place  this topic in your weekly discussions. My goal is to entertain and inform.

That being said, it’s time for my annual attempt to summarize the NFL salary cap for fans heading into a new fiscal year. Yes, LA Rams fans, let’s talk dollars and sense.

Here’s a good place to pause.  You see, there will always be that favorite player or two where fans will disagree with the decisions of the front office. That’s part of the thrill of the off-season. Emotions are part of the reason we follow our favorite sports teams.

Despite all the analytics and rationalization, this is still a guessing game, folks. The front office analyzes far more data than we as fans or writers do to form the basis of their decisions.  After all, that’s what the staff of professionals is paid to do – build the most competitive roster for the team. Sometimes that means pruning the roster to make room for new talent.  Sometimes that means investing in the current talent.

McVay gets it

Ultimately, even head coaches understand the salary cap effect of limiting options on player retention.  LA Rams head coach Sean McVay admitted as such via the LA Times in an interview after the last game of the season.

“You’d love to see everyone get paid, you’d love to be able to keep everybody,” Sean McVay said via the Los Angeles Times. “Unfortunately, that’s not real and that’s not realistic.

The Rams may have some tough decisions this offseason.  As the team braces for the exodus of their 2020 free agents, finance and talent assessment professionals are working long hours to value the worth of each player on the Rams roster.

That type of assessment allows the team to navigate the treacherous channels to decide who should be parting from the team on a merit basis, rather than the “contract is up!” chronology. For example, the team might be tempted to part ways with running back Todd Gurley, if they feel they can more effectively use freed up salary dollars to retain a productive lineback like Cory Littleton.

That is where the debate rages hottest among fans . Who stays and who goes? And who is really deciding?  Okay, so let’s set the stage of where the Rams are currently, shall we?

2020 Los Angeles Rams salary cap status

The LA Rams currently have 44 players (per OverTheCap.com) signed through 2020 at a salary cap expense of $182,372,705 (top 51 contracts). That means the team has a projected $25,456,744  remaining to sign players about to enter free agency, sign new free agents from other teams, and place newly drafted prospects under contract.

That may seem like plenty, but it’s not going to spread as far as the team may want.

You see, the team also must negotiate contracts with players whose contract expires at the end of 2020 as well.  On top of that, the Rams project to lose nine players as unrestricted free agents in 2020.  That number balloons to 17 players when factoring in restricted and exclusive free agents as well.

Whose contracts expire this off-season?  Let’s look at the list.

Offense
Andrew Whitworth – LT, Blake Bortles – QB, Mike Thomas – WR, Austin Blythe – C/G, Jojo Natson – WR, Johnny Mundt – TE, Coleman Shelton – C. Nsimba Webster – WR

Defense
Dante Fowler Jr.  – OLB, Michael Brockers – DT, Cory Littleton – ILB, Bryce Hager – ILB, Marqui Christian – S, Morgan Fox – DE, Donte Deayon – S, Josh Carraway – OLB

Special Teams
Greg Zuerlein – K

The list shows a fairly even distribution  in terms of offensive versus defensive players.  After a quick review, some items offer a bit of intrigue.  The Rams, while attrition is spread about, have several pockets of multiple defections projected.  Which positions will be most impacted with projected vacancies in 2020?

Five cent drive-by free agency analysis

One of the first areas that jumps out is the simultaneous expiration of two hugely productive players on the defensive side of the ball: Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler Jr. .  Both players are linebackers, but Fowler anchors the edge for the Rams defense, while Littleton solidifies the middle of the defense.

Another position of high impact for the LA Rams is that of center.  While quarterback Jared Goff is going nowhere, the near-automatic snaps fans take for granted require familiarity between a quarterback and his center.  After starting center Brian Allen‘s injury in 2019, the team relied upon guard turned center Austin Blythe paired with rookie center Coleman Shelton.

Of course, Allen returns this season from an MCL knee injury, but Blythe’s versatility was a huge factor in 2019.  And Coleman Shelton is a young prospect with solid potential to fill a growing role in the Rams offensive line.  So should the Rams commit to veteran versatility this off-season? Or do they elect to invest in younger talent for the future? In many cases, it’s either one direction or the other.

Math Magic

So how do teams like the LA Rams fill roster holes with numerous positions with cap limits?  Well part of the magic is the algorithm whereby the NFL only includes the top 51 contracts into the calculation.  That takes just the slightest of pressure off the cap.

Another trick of the trade is to use tags. In NFL free agency, a team can use either the franchise tag, transition tag, or the non-exclusive franchise tag.  We’ll revisit these later. For now, it’s good to know that the Rams can act to retain players, but doing so will lower available cap space even further.

The true power of math when brushing upon the salary cap dynamics is reconciling dollars in terms of base salary, bonus dollars, incentive dollars, and guaranteed dollars.  I apologize in advance for the topic to uninterested readers.

Now it’s time to refresh everyone on salary cap terms.  If you wish to avoid the salary cap terminology slide, just scroll past the next one.  If you stay with me, I won’t be too long winded though.

Salary Cap Terminology

Base salary is the compensation a player receives, and is the “game check”. An NFL player receives 1/17th of their base salary on each football game day.  Base salary has lessened in importance over the years in terms of significance to an NFL team’s salary cap.

NFL Teams have dramatically increased their willingness to renegotiate contract base salaries into other categories to create flexibility in their payroll.

Bonus payments

Bonuses can take the shape of many things. Most fans recognize signing bonuses -which are payments made to players within the first 18 months of signing on with a team. This amount is oftentimes prorated over the entire life of the contract. Bonuses can include such events as working out, reporting, being on roster, playing on game day, and many other forms.

Since some compensation can be paid out up front and charged off over the life of a contract, teams often exercise this option to lessen the current year salary cap hit to afford signing other players.

Incentives

Incentives are a third category for player compensation. They are categorized as either Likely To Be Earned (LTBE) or Not Likely To Be Earned (NLTBE). LTBE’s count against the current year salary cap, while NLTBE’s do not.

Unearned LTBE’s are credited against the salary cap of the following year, and earned NLTBE’s are recorded against the salary cap of the following year.

Guaranteed dollars

Guaranteed dollars is the term which describes the  dollars which do not come off the books if the player contract is terminated.  In normal language, this is the actual paid out value of the contract, regardless of the circumstances.

And finally dead money is the term used to define monies already paid or earned which have not been charged against any previous salary caps. This is the residual monies often associated with signing bonuses or incentives.  Dead money is a hit to the current year salary cap with no benefit of the associated player on the roster.

LA Rams cannot pay everyone

Okay, that’s over with.  Now back to discussing the Rams situation.

One of the most difficult decisions by a team’s front office is deciding who to pursue and who to surrender to free agency. While some years the list is a handful of barely recognizable players, the 2020 project free agency list for the Los Angeles Rams appears to be a Who’s Who of pro bowl candidates.

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Right now the LA Rams must focus their salary cap dollars upon the defense.  The questions surrounding whether defensive guru Wade Phillips will return to the Rams next season is a huge question mark. That means the team will have much less time to redirect their talent search to meet a new coordinator’s shopping list.

But in terms of raw impact, losing the likes of Dante Fowler Jr, Cory Littleton, and Michael Brockers simultaneously is too much to recover from.

So the team will likely commit to re-signing veterans to the defense.  In doing so, that will dictate the need for the Rams to use the 2020 NFL Draft to create depth for the team, particularly on the offensive line. Based on early projections, there should be plenty of available talent to do so.

Salary cap magic – who can the LA Rams restructure?

The short answer?  Everyone. Or in simpler terms, whomever they decide to restructure can be redealt with a new contract.  But it is a balancing act of sorts.  Remove salary impact from current year only means adding to cap woes for future years.  And that’s just basic mathematics.

Of course, managing an NFL salary cap is as much of an art form as it is math.

The most significant savings starts at the most significant contracts. That points to restructuring LA Rams QB Jared Goff‘s contract for 2020.  Goff is due bonuses in 2020 totaling some  $26 Million.  Per SPOTRAC.com, restructuring Goff’s contract will free up $16.8 Million in 2020. Doing that would place the team over $42 Million in available cap space.  That would be on or about the NFL average.

Another opportunity is to extend cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Due to the cap dynamics, signing Ramsey to a long term contract would free up approximately $3 Million.  Of course, that results in a long-term marriage between the Rams and Ramsey, but after trading two 1st round draft picks, that has been the Rams objective all along.

How do you feel about running back Todd Gurley‘s knees?  If you believe Gurley will return to his former self, then you will likely vote to maintain the status quo. But if you accept the rumor that Gurley’s knees are not what they used to be, then this is a good time to trade him away for a “make me an offer” deal aimed to free up just under $5 Million.

Finally, the surge from safety Taylor Rapp in 2019 let’s the Rams to consider severing ties with veteran safety Eric Weddle, saving just under $5 million.  Do all that, and the Rams can peak at about $55 Million in salary cap space.  That would be enough to retain Littleton (approx. $12.5 M/year) and Fowler (franchise tag at $16.3 M). Signing Brockers will run the team approximately $12 M/year.  That leaves the team on or about $14 Million to sign their draft prospects and round out their roster, all definitely doable.  In the end, the Rams have options to re-sign key players and build a better roster for 2020.