5 reasons LA Rams 2020 NFL Draft strategy = Quantity over quality

LA Rams draft strategy should aim at quantity over quality of picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, here are five reasons.

LA Rams fans are part of the NFL fanbase. Fans of each NFL team are programmed to anticipate the best case scenario for virtually each round one NFL Draft selection.  Let’s face it, the NFL markets the NFL in such a way that last place teams aspire to Super Bowl competition the following year.  And the NFL generates an occasional case study to prove it – such as the 2019 San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers were a special case in 2018. Their starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, was lost for the season. Beyond that, the team endured injuries from another dozen or so players which truly catapulted them to a point of no return. In 2019, those players returned to health, reinforced with solid talent from the 2019 NFL Draft.

For most NFL Drafts, the media headlines splash with the marquis names from round one to the point of altering fans perceptions into a mirage of almost guaranteed success.  The reality is that first round players are not guaranteed long NFL careers. A 2008 article by Bleacher Report Ari Horing focused on 128 players from the first round selections from 1995-1998.  He found that by 2005, 44 percent were out of the league.

Let’s be more specific to the NFL Draft.  What are the odds of finding a starting NFL offensive lineman per round?  To determine that, we turn to another article, this time one from ArrowheadPride.com which cites the success rate of finding an NFL starter by position, ranked by the draft round of the selection.

Reason one : Let’s chance it

For offensive linemen, the  chance of finding an offensive linemen by round are as follows
Round one –   83%
Round two –   70%
Round three – 40%
Round four –   29%
Round five –    16%
Round six –      16%
Round seven –   9%

The frequency for where offensive linemen are selected runs the opposite way: That order by round is (7th,6th,5th,4th,3rd,1st,2nd)

So it’s smarter to pick offensive linemen in early rounds, right?  Well based on this information alone, of course.  But let’s add a different factor – the value of draft picks from the draft value chart article, shall we?

From that chart, let’s focus on the Rams picks at 52 and 84.  So if the Rams pick at 52, there is a 70 percent chance of finding a starter. If they pick at 84, there is an approximate 40 percent chance of finding a starter.  The chances of finding two starters simply means calculating the product of the two chances, or 28 percent.  failing to find a single starter with either pick is the product of the inverse probability or the product of 30 percent and 60 percent, which is 18 percent.

So while selecting in round one has a better chance of finding a starter, selecting at 52 and 84 together has an unforeseen bonus of hitting on TWO starters at a probability of 28 percent. That’s not bad for an LA Rams team in need of multiple starters on the offensive line.

Reason two : Filling offensive line depth

Of course, the LA Rams draft strategy will not be about trading everything back to the seventh round. But let’s focus on the scenario where the LA Rams trade back with that round two pick.  In our first mock draft, we proposed drafting either OT Ben Bartch from St. Johns, or tight end Cole Kmet from Notre Dame.  Per the draft success by round article, Bartch has a 70 percent chance of starting, Kmet just a 50 percent chance (tight ends rank differently).  So the Rams simply decide to trade back to round three.

If they find a willing trade partner who has an abundant supply of third round picks, the Rams could agree to swap their 360 value in round two for a 200 (pick 78) and 160 value (pick 86). Now armed with two third round picks, the odds break down the following way:

Two starters – 16 percent
One starter –    48 percent
Zero starters – 36 percent

But let’s look at the same scenario, but in this scenario, the Rams trade for three late third round picks – 170 (pick 84), 100 (pick 100), 92 (pick 102).  Now we have a new probability table:

Three starters –           6.4 percent
At least one starter – 72 percent
Zero starters –             21.6 percent

So by trading down to grab three picks in round three, the Rams not only increase their chances of finding a starter, but they lower their chances of coming away empty altogether.  Plus there is the added bonus of finding multiple starters.  See where we are going with this?

Reason three: But we’re …not different?!?!

Of course, there are countless other variables ignored with this simple statistical exercise.There is the fact that each organization is different. There is the coaching staff difference. Next is the quality of the scouting department. There is the location of the NFL team. There is the age of the training facilities.

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In short, the list of other variables goes on, and on, and on.  But the more granular the variables, the more difficult the calculation. And in the end, it’s resolved by working with all NFL teams.

That approach washes away the “who picked first” versus “who picked last” in each round. It neutralizes the geographic factors as well.

The NFL Draft sells fans, pundits, and team executives that the early rounds are where the value rests in terms of excellent players.  After all, if a team’s sole purpose is drafting an eventual All Pro player, or multilple pro bowl player, the chances of doing so drops off to almost nothing by mid round three.  So the NFL superstars are certainly part of an elite group, found in rounds one and two.

NFL general managers do not live and die in the draft by finding superstars.  A 53 man roster built for championships balances the stars needed with the depth for the team.  The Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl 52 on the arm of backup quarterback Nick Foles.   A championship team simply knows how to fit it all under the salary cap.

True success is in the acceptance that failure in any NFL Draft comes with the turf. Even the most highly acclaimed quarterbacks, the positions everyone scouts and analyzes, are not surefire rockstars in the NFL. And some who fall to late rounds CAN succeed in the NFL, often a a cheaper price.

Reason 4: NFL economics

The NFL collective bargaining agreement finally addressed the chaos involved with NFL rookie salaries and their collective NFL Draft position.  In the past, NFL rookies who had yet to play the game for the NFL walked into the league with better contracts than multi-year veterans.

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Now the NFL predetermines what the rookie contract will be before the season. Right now, the folks over at OverTheCap.com have a nice NFL Draft resource which estimates the 2020 NFL rookie wage scale.

Round one rookies can earn from $2.1 million up to $7.5 million. Round three rookies will earn between $750-850K.

For the LA Rams, the teams salary cap constraints has the team aiming at more of the round three contracts. The economics certainly plays a role in how a team approaches an NFL Draft. How can it not?

If the team is aiming at signing an NFL free agent to a $12 million / year contract, but only has $11 million after calculating their NFL rookie salary needs, which general manager would not trade back and free up that million?  Perhaps that even plays a part in creating a bias to the statistics.

After all, NFL teams will naturally give their round one pick far more chances to earn an NFL starting role over a round seven pick, purely from the standpoint of how much that round one player earns.  Sitting a round one player on the bench immediate places the general manager’s career on the hot seat.

Reason 5: Lower picks are hungrier

Is there a point where competitive athletes are satiated? After all, does competition revolve around being the best you can be, or simply just better than others?  The true answer is more of the latter in competitive sports, particularly when emerging from college.

In the grand scheme of things, graduating from college ends a person’s chapter of scholastic education and begins a person’s real life adventure.  But the life and culture of academia is unique and a world unto itself.  College football players projected for round one selection in the upcoming NFL Draft had mastered NCAA football. Their transition to the next level is oftentimes littered with school, conference, and NCAA achievements, awards, and accolade.

All others? Sit, watch, and want some recognition of their own.

That “eye of the tiger” carries over into the NFL. Athletes enter the next chapter either ripe with success or eager for it.  While it does not show up in the statistics, it shows up with each new wave of rookies eager to contribute. After all, how do players who can run faster, lift greater weights, jump higher, or turn on a dime better even compete in the NFL?  Answer: they want it more.

Passion will always play a larger role in production than pedigree. In a professional football league which demands perfection, the call to improve is a day and night hunger. It becomes a dull ache gnawing at the soul, and can only be silenced by training and reproving constantly that the player is improving, and sees the improvement.  Top picks feel that hunger vanish. Those not chosen, even if their pro careers prove otherwise, never forget.  11 years later, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers still recalls that decision of then San Francisco 49ers to select quarterback Alex Smith over him.  Sometimes, that hunger never dies.