WR Cooper Kupp can take the LA Rams passing game to the next level

LA Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp enters his contract year in 2020. Look for him to single-handedly take the team’s passing game to the next level

Right now, much of the NFL media focus is aimed at the LA Rams outgoing 2020 free agents. What little attention is left fuels the rumors swirling about Rams running back Todd Gurley. While those are certainly very important issues, they are today’s matters.  In three months, most matters will resolve, for better or worse.  What the team will be left with is the best roster money and skill can assemble to compete in the 2020 NFL season. Whomever the Rams acquire, sign, or promote, there is one certainty to the 2020 NFL Rams roster.  WR Cooper Kupp will be the featured target in the passing game.

Sometimes it’s easy to take the play of Kupp for granted.  In a season of disappointments, Kupp quietly pushed through his career best one-season performance. A year after a season ending ACL injury, Kupp caught 94 passes for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns.  The best news? He’s still playing on a rookie contract.

2020 will be Cooper Kupp’s contract year.  And for what it’s worth, NFL players typically break through all previous career records when they are playing for a new NFL contract.  Adding to the “breakout year” belief is the uptick in Kupp’s production for each season he has played in the NFL so far.  While his second year receiving yards declined due to injury, it bears a closer look

Season Targets     Completions      Yards         TDs            YPT        YPC             No. Off. Snaps
2017          94                62                     869             5              9.24      14.02               736
2018          55                40                     566             6            10.29      14.15               439
2019        134               94                  1,161           10              8.66      12.35               884
2020         ???

Now, let’s see about filling in the blanks for 2020.

Contract year = Breakout year

So it’s one thing to point up and assert that is where Cooper Kupp’s season is heading, but what does that mean in terms of hard numbers?  Ah, that’s the trick after all, isn’t it?  Well, Kupp was the 12th most productive receiver in 2019.

That ranking improves dramatically if we simply follow the current rate of improvement demonstrated in his first three NFL seasons.  Keep in mind that 2018 reflected only eight games due to a season-ending ACL injury. His 2019 season resumed exactly where he left off in 2018. That allows some projections for 2020, and they are very good numbers.

Let’s dust off the crystal ball and try to project what that means in 2020…

Season   Targets       Completions     Yards         TDs         YPT         YPC               No. Off. Snaps
2017          94                    62                    869             5            9.24       14.02                 736
2018          55                    40                    566             6          10.29       14.15                 439
2019        134                    94                 1,161          10            8.66       12.35                 884
2020        160                  115                1,440          14            9.00        12.52                900

If these projections hold, Cooper Kupp would be pushing for the top wide receiver in the NFL in 2020.  And that is a season heading into his contract year with the team.  So what type of pressure would be on the Rams if he could put up those sort of numbers in 2020?

Well, the Rams had signed WR Brandin Cooks to a mega-deal of five-years and $81 million after just a 1,082 yard seven TD season.  So extrapolating the Kupp deal would project somewhere in the order of five years and $100 million, or an average salary cost of $20 million / year for the next five seasons. Those are Julio Jones type of salary dollars and would be a good deal in tomorrow’s dollars.

Parting is such sweet sorrow

As the LA Rams prepare for the 2020 NFL season, there is the need to keep an eye on the future.  The team, in their earnestness to pay for today’s stars, may have shorted themselves on paying the tab for tomorrow’s starts.

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If the Rams had to rank receiver importance to the team’s passing game today, I believe a consensus would form behind placing WR Cooper Kupp first, Robert Woods second, and Brandin Cooks third.  Right now, the topsy turvy world of LA Rams compensation is Brandin Cooks at $16,800,000, Robert Woods at $8,175,000, and Cooper Kupp at $2,382,690.

That effect compounds the Rams ability to retain Cooper Kupp in 2021, and is one of the reasons the team may need to swallow cap hits in 2020 to set up the team to keep stars in the future.  The argument to pay and retain Cooks to stretch the field doesn’t really hold up based on his 2019 performance. And in the face of Cooks or Kupp, which player truly becomes the poster child for the Rams passing game going forward?

I believe the Rams future lies in the hands of wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He is a very productive 6-foot-2 208 pound receiver whose production could easily match some of the best receivers in the NFL.  Moreso, he is a young player who is entering the most productive years of his NFL career. Of course, each move the Rams make has repercussions.  Paying one player eliminates the chance to pay another player.  32 NFL teams are all tied to the same task – build the best and deepest roster.  Those rules have not been kind to the Rams who elected to go “all-in” in 2019. Now the team must weigh which player truly deserves the big payday.

If they ask me, my vote is to commit to Cooper Kupp. Hopefully, the LA Rams front office will vote on Kupp as well.  What may that mean for the roster in 2020? Changes.  But if the Rams plan to stay relevant for years to come, the team needs to ensure the pay and the play remain aligned.