LA Rams NFL rumors reports team talking to TE Jordan Reed for 2020

NFL Rumors report LA Rams talking to former Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed about signing on for 2020 NFL season

Are the LA Rams becoming too predictable?  Well, it seems that way nowadays, particularly in light of the latest NFL Rumors reported about the Rams. Two unrelated events happened in the NFL over a week ago. But both set into motion a predictable patter for head coach Sean McVay and newly hired offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell.  What were they?

It began with the Seattle Seahawks signing former Carolina Panther tight end Greg Olsen. At the time, we identified the move as more psychological than significant. Olsen is a solid tight end, but he is unlikely to put up 1,000 yards receiving at Seattle.

Nearly the same time frame, the Washington Redskins were up to their own personnel decisions regarding veteran tight end Jordan Reed. Multiple reports surfaced simultaneously suggesting the rumor that the Redskins would cut Reed. Now that outcome was somewhat expected, as he had a history of multiple injuries, including seven documented concussions. The latest concussion required an entire season to recover from.  All in all, the Redskins saved $8.5 million by releasing Reed.

But there are strong connections between head coach Sean McVay and new offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell. A very strong connection in fact. After all, he was there on the Redskins’ offense for both coaches and is a highly reliable and productive player when healthy.  He is the type of tight end who creates extreme mismatches on the field.  That nearly automatic mismatch will draw coaches like McVay and O’Connell every time.

Prognostication, predictions, and just probability

Jordan Reed cannot expect top dollar.  In fact, he’s likely to attract little interest from many NFL teams.  But he does have strong connections to Rams’ coaches Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell. Knowing that Reed still wanted to play and that the Rams are interested in adding versatility to the offense, the connection seemed both logical and defendable.

So as a customer service tip, we went out on a limb and immediately recommended that LA Rams fans keep an eye on this situation, as the Rams would likely be reaching out to Jordan Reed.

Of course, many fans responded quickly and pointed out that the Rams have multiple tight ends, no need for a tight end, insufficient cap space, and no reason to show any interest in an oft-injured NFL veteran tight end.

Still, the LA Rams are implementing changes to the offense as you read this. Those changes are authored by new offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell.  And the easiest way to jump-start a transition to a new offensive scheme is to sign on players from the coach’s previous team. Tight end Jordan Reed used to play for O’Connell’s offense.

Boom! There it is!

Today, NFL rumors report that the LA Rams are indeed in discussions with TE Jordan Reed about signing on with the team. The report was made public by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler in the wee hours of Friday, February 28, 2020.

Now all of this is pretty standard stuff. But a week earlier, we called this out as the logical next step. That was hardly a matter of mystifying magic. Even beyond the strong ties to the Rams current coaches, Reed was a projected trade target of the LA Rams a year ago. Ironically, that article cited Reed’s health as the biggest risk, just before Reed suffered the concussion which benched him the entirety of the 2019 season.

So what of the team’s other four tight ends? They are TEs Ethan Wolf, Johnny Mundt, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett. Ethan Wolf is currently a camp body who signed onto a 2020 future reserve contract in January.  He will likely be unaffected.  Johnny Mundt is a talented exclusive restricted free agent and the decision to extend the qualifying offer will likely be independent of any deal negotiated with Reed.

Higbee Heroics

That leaves the Rams with two solid tight ends, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.  Both are solid players, and both contribute solid numbers to the Rams’ offense. If the Rams sign on a veteran tight end like Jordan Reed, the team would likely immediately field offers for one of their two top tight-ends from 2019.

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After all, the team will still have limited roster spots, will likely have limits to the number of tight ends carried on the 53 man roster, and would certainly be wise to investigate adding draft picks whenever possible.

Higbee arrived on the team courtesy of the 2016 NFL Draft in the fourth round. For his first three years with the team, his numbers were very pedestrian.  But his 2019 season was a breakout season for him, where he hauled in more pass reception yardage than his previous three seasons combined.  Contrary to many Rams players, this all happened after the team signed him to a four-year extension. Higbee’s performance did not go unnoticed. His Pro Football Focus grade for 2019 registered a very impressive 85.9.

Higbee’s extension gave him a nice bump, jumping from $1,000,000 salary in 2019 to a $2,000,000 salary in 2020, plus a $6,025,000 roster bonus.  All in all, his salary cap hit in 2019 of $1.745 million escalates to $8.625 million in 2020.

Everett solid too

Gerald Everett arrived onto the team via the 2017 NFL Draft as a second-round pick. While he came to the team a year later than Higbee, his second-round selection carries a higher and faster expectation of delivering on the team’s offense which, at times, has gone unmet. Expectations for him rose in 2019 once more, calling for him to deliver career highs.  While he did technically deliver his career-best, it was just 408 yards in the passing game.

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Of course, the struggles with the Rams offensive line in 2019 likely forced the Rams to use one or both tight ends to augment the blocking on passing downs. Despite his lack of huge chunks of yardage in pass receptions, Everett scored a very impressive 76.0 grade from PFF for 2019. The previous year, he topped out at 82.4.

Everett is up for his extension this season. That extension may not arrive, however. The Rams haven’t enough money to retain key veteran free agents.  As a result, this is likely Everett’s contract year.  Many players put up their best numbers in such a scenario. But in his case with the Rams, how good is truly enough?  The team faces trying to pay for WR Cooper Kupp and CB Jalen Ramsey at the end of 2020.  Everett may simply be facing a salary cap casualty future with the Rams.

The team may be anticipating that and using it to prompt them into discussions with Reed for a short-duration low guarantee contract.

Musical roster spots?

The last piece to the puzzle is, who would the Rams trade in the event of signing Reed? Well, from a purely salary cap perspective, Tyler Higbee would free up $6.225 million in salary-cap space if he were traded before the June 1st deadline. Gerald Everett would free up just $1.3 million.

Of course, veteran tight end Jordan Reed cannot be projected as a three-down player by even the most optimistic coach.  So the team would look at his presence on the roster as an augment to the standard offense.  Since Higbee is the presumed TE1 as of today, the odd tight-end out would likely be Gerald Everett.

Gerald Everett plays well but doesn’t play often.  He’s averaged playing in just 33 percent of the offensive snaps over his three-year career. To Rams fans looking at stats alone, he likely won’t carry must worth to the trading block. But to an NFL team’s general manager?  He has NFL experience, has graded very well by PFF when he’s been on the field, does not have many miles on him, and can play for next to nothing in 2020.

All told, that’s a day two pick, likely round three.  if the Rams sign Reed and subsequently move to trade Everett, look for that pick to land at the 2020 NFL Draft. If this occurs after the 2020 Draft, the pick could even be a 2021 second-round pick, depending upon the circumstances of the trade.  Ultimately, the Rams are trying to improve the team overall.  By signing a veteran like Jordan Reed to a low-risk high-reward deal, and using that to trade away Everett for an additional pick or two, they can accomplish that.