LA Rams upcoming NFL Free Agency strategy is a nail-biter

If you enjoy thrillers, you will love what the LA Rams are cooking up for the 2020 NFL season. It’s a nail-biter already, and we haven’t gotten to free agency yet.

Whether by choice or random chance, the 2020 future of the LA Rams has a bit of everything underway right now. The team has continuity but unfamiliarity. The team has a familiar but inconsistent franchise quarterback. The team has a five-time All-Pro on the defensive line, but questions surrounding the team’s defense. The team has a stable of returning positional coaches, but three brand new coordinators. And on March 18, 2020, the team loses ten players to NFL Free Agency.

But the one enigma that is on my mind when the lights go out until the alarm sounds on the following morning: the LA Rams have a lengthy shopping list heading into the NFL Free Agency market, but too little money to make a dent in it. How will the team resolve that?

Of course, there are plenty of moving parts this off-season. There is the newly proposed CBA which has already been ratified by the team owners.  That CBA met with some pushback by the 32 NFLPA representatives before they approved it and sent it to all players for a vote. That vote will impact all 32 teams and will play a significant role in the NFL Free Agency market in 2020.

But will it be ratified in time to boost the Rams’ salary cap?  Right now, the players voting deadline has been extended to March 14, 2020.  Will the Rams be able to retain key players if that happens? Or will more money simply be added to the bidding wars of other teams as well, and the Rams will come up short? Who should the LA Rams even target in free agency?

We’ve done some work on who the team should target in free agency from other teams, but have not yet done a complete assessment of the Rams potential free agents.  Well, we’ll fix that oversight now.

Off-season roster work

NFL Teams are limited to a 53-man permanent roster for the 2020 NFL season.  That number of returning players is currently less than 40 as the team currently has 10 unrestricted free agents, three restricted free agents, three exclusive restricted free agents, and two team option players, heading into 2020.  For the 90-man initial Roster, the Rams have 55 players currently under contract for 2020.

Of the 2020 free agents, the LA Rams arguably are at risk of losing five significant free agents: OLB Dante Fowler Jr., DT Michael Brockers, ILB Cory Littleton, LT Andrew Whitworth, and G Austin Blythe.

Some reports are already hard at work projecting the Rams free agents will be signing onto new NFL teams in 2020.  If that is truly the case, the Rams may struggle to win enough games in 2020 to make the playoffs.  But even if the Rams re-sign no projected 2020 NFL free agents this year, the team has enough talent on the roster to make a run at the playoffs.

To break it down, lets split the Rams free agent group into the offense and defense. Curiously, the outgoing free agents are split evenly.

Defense star-studded roster

The LA Rams have enjoyed a long ride of some of the best defensive talent in the NFL. Former defensive coordinator Wade Phillips had an incredible knack for blending veterans among younger players to promote competition and get the best out of both groups over the years.  Now, the LA Rams have turned over the keys to the defense to new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.

Staley clearly understood that the Rams would not be making huge inroads into freeing up significant NFL salary dollars to re-sign each of the team’s free agents.  In fact, he may have been hired as a result of the team focusing more on the defensive scheme and less upon acquiring the best NFL talent available. After all, that is how his mentor, coach Vic Fangio, earned his incredible reputation in the NFL as a defensive savant.  So who are the Rams at risk of losing this year to free agency?

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS – Defense

OLB Dante Fowler Jr.
DT Michael Brockers
ILB Cory Littleton
ILB Bryce Hager
S Marqui Christian

Of the group, four were starters on defense in 2019. And even the loss of Marqui Christian is poorly timed for the Rams, as they had already lost veteran safety, Eric Weddle, to retirement.

Offense star-studded roster

Now that you have a roster of the Rams defensive players hitting free agency, it’s time to turn your attention to the offense. Of this group, the most noteworthy are the veteran offensive lineman who hit free agency in 2020.

More from Rams Free Agency

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• Why the Los Angeles Rams should extend Baker Mayfield
• Baker Mayfield faces stiff QB competition in NFL Free Agency market

The story for the Rams offense is not as dependant upon the free-agent market, nor even the 2020 NFL Draft.  The team’s offensive success will hinge almost entirely upon these four factors: getting the offensive line on track, getting running back Todd Gurley back to 1,000 yards rushing, getting wide receiver Brandin Cooks over 1,000 yards receiving, and getting quarterback Jared Goff comfortable in the pocket, hitting downfield receivers with more accuracy, and moving him around in the pocket.

All are pretty ambitious goals for the team with an expected minimal influx of new talent.  But the team may be more solid at the offensive line after 2019 of promoting rookies to starting roles. The Rams also face a tough call at the kicker position, where the team must weigh the risk/reward of using limited cap dollars to re-sign veteran kicker Greg Zuerlein.

UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS – Offense

LT Andrew Whitworth
K Greg Zuerlein
QB Blake Bortles
WR Mike Thomas
G Austin Blythe

Of the group, it’s unlikely the team will actively pursue either Bortles or Thomas.  But anything is possible.

Edge rusher Fowler

The LA Rams and OLB Dante Fowler Jr. have enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship. While the Rams have enjoyed the sack production of Fowler Jr. in 2019, Fowler propelled his 2020 free agency value by lining up alongside Aaron Donald and taking advantage of one blocker to bolster his production.

Background – The Rams traded for Dante Fowler Jr. from the Jacksonville Jaguars for one 2019 third and one 2020 fifth-round pick. The Rams have since employed Fowler effectively as a pass-rusher. Now, the team may be moving on from Fowler due to salary cap limits.

Strengths – Fowler is a superb pass rusher. In the LA Rams roster, he was a great compliment to the destruction of defensive linemen Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. He was one of the most effective pass rushers for the Rams.

Weaknesses – Fowler cannot carry a defense. He benefits as a secondary threat to the QB.

Team Impact – The Rams pass rush will suffer without Fowler’s contribution. The best the team can hope for from the current roster is about 9.0 sacks from his replacement – whether veteran or rookie.

Estimated market value – Right now Fowler Jr.’s franchise tag value with the LA Rams is $16.2 million. He obviously wants a multi-year deal worth more. For the right team, a five-year $85 million deal is possible

Projected team action – If the Rams can free up the cap space, I would guess the franchise tag becomes an option. But the Rams haven’t that much cap room, so the franchise tag won’t be used.

Most likely team to sign him: There are six or more teams linked to pursuing Dante Fowler Jr. in free agency. They are the New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Tenessee Titans, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, and Houston Texans. Reports surfaced of a mutual interest in Fowler playing for the Falcons in 2020.

Run stopper Brockers

The LA Rams and defensive tackle Michael Brockers have a long history. He joined the team when he heard his name called by the Rams as the 14th selection of the 2012 NFL Draft. And he has been a Ram ever since.

Background – Another defensive standout will test the NFL Free Agency market. Brockers was one of the first veterans of the Rams 2019 team to hint he would not be returning. The Rams outgoing veterans of Andrew Whitworth, Cory Littleton, and Dante Fowler Jr. are likely greater priorities to the Rams’ front office this year.

Strengths – Brockers is one of the best run defenders on the Rams’ defense. As such, DT Aaron Donald publicly pleaded for the Rams to re-sign him. He is a class act, always willing to help mentor younger players joining the team. He’s a huge locker room presence.

Weaknesses – Brockers falls short in the pass rush department. Despite playing on the defensive front with Donald, he’s averaged no better than 3.0 sacks/year.

Team Impact – His 6-5 305 pound presence may not make the fans rally to his side, but he is a huge anchor to the Rams defensive front. His absence will require the Rams to scheme better on running downs.

Estimated market value – A multi-year deal for approximately three years at $33 million

Projected team action – The Rams will likely part ways with Brockers this year.

Most likely team to sign him – The New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and Denver Broncos would all have a strong interest in adding his run defense to their team.  The Denver Broncos will likely make a strong push to sign Brockers.

Swiss Army knife Littleton

Inside linebacker Cory Littleton is the product of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips philosophy. Mixing veterans and talented elite players. Littleton signed with the LA Rams as a UDFA.

Background – For two seasons, Littleton was a special teams’ standout for the Rams. He was promoted to starting interior linebacker for the team in 2018 and has excelled ever since. He is one of the top 10 free agents ranked by Pro Football Focus in 2020.

Strengths – Littleton brings solid pass defense and solid tackling to the interior of the Rams defense. Since his promotion to a starter, he’s averaged 130 tackles, three sacks, and eight tackles for losses per year.

Weaknesses – As strong as he is on pass defense over the middle, he is a liability on run defense. Playing behind Aaron Donald masked that weakness.

Team Impact – Littleton’s loss could force the Rams to modify how they approach their roster for 2020. If he signs elsewhere, look for the Rams to draft up to a couple hybrid linebacker/safeties in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Estimated market value – Originally estimated four-years at $50 million, but several teams are publicly announcing their interest to pursue Littleton. He could land as much as a 5-year $90 million deal.

Projected team action – Rams will likely attempt to re-sign Littleton to a long-term deal. But unless it happens very quickly, other teams with deeper pockets will likely sway his decision with more money.

Most likely team to sign him – The Green Bay Packers appear very interested in Littleton, and will likely be the high bidder. But likely a dozen NFL teams will show interest in Littleton.

The other LB Hager

The LA Rams must also brace for the loss of another starting inside linebacker, Bryce Hager, who stepped up for the team in 2019. Unfortunately, his debut as a starter was short-lived.

Background – Hager was a steady backup and special teams player for the Rams, but a 2019 injury to projected starter Micah Kiser forced the Rams to promote Hager. He too fell to injury after just five games in 2019.

Strengths – A solid contributor to special teams, and backup inside linebacker. He is a solid roster player but has not shown the ability to start for an extended period at the NFL level.

Weaknesses – Hager’s niche is special teams, where he needn’t process the play in front of him. He is a serviceable backup linebacker

Team Impact – A solid special team player with backup capacity, a linebacker role for a 3-4 defense featuring linebackers. Rams will expect more production or cheap price to retain his role in the future.

Estimated market value – Not known in a large circle in the NFL.  Hager would be welcomed back to the LA Rams at the right price. Perhaps a four-year deal at $3-4 million.

Projected team action – Likely will allow Hager to test free agency. If he hasn’t gotten competitive offers, he will likely be back to Rams for a four-year deal at $3 million.

Most likely team to sign him – Watch for Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, or Philadelphia Eagles to enter bidding when his price drops below $1 million/year.

Safety first Christian

The LA Rams lost veteran safety Eric Weddle to retirement. And it’s that loss which makes the projected free agency of safety Marqui Christian so challenging.  At any other time, he would fall into the cap casualty category. But this year, losing two safeties simultaneously may not be wise, particularly for a team projecting to start John Johnson, who is himself returning from injury.

Background – Marqui Christian was originally selected by the Arizona Cardinals in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL Draft.  For two seasons, he was a special teams player for the Rams. But in 2018, he was rotated into the defense and has played both on defense and special teams.

Strengths – Marqui Christian is the type of “glue” player who holds an NFL team together over the course of a season. He can play special teams, can slide in for his rotation at defensive back, and can even take an occasional start. He has amassed 36 tackles in each of his last two seasons, despite playing just a third of the defensive snaps.

Weaknesses – Christian misses nearly 20 percent of his tackles. And while he does limit pass completions to just 60 percent of passes targetting him, he allows nearly 13.0 yards per completion.

Team Impact – The Rams will certainly need to add safeties for the 90-man roster, and perhaps to carry one on the 53-man roster.

Estimated market value – He is hoping for a larger role in the NFL, and a larger salary.  If that happens, he could command a contract of four-years and $9 million. If he does not generate as much interest early, he may need to settle for a four-year $4 million contract.

Projected team action – Unless Christian is willing to return to the LA Rams at the NFL minimal veteran salary, the team will likely be willing to watch him walk away without actively pursuing his return.

Most likely team to sign him – Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, and Philadelphia Eagles are all in the market for depth at the defensive backfield. Look for the Dallas Cowboys to offer the most, and the Cowboys know Christian’s value on special teams as well.

One more time Whitworth

The LA Rams have no one but themselves to blame for the need to re-sign veteran left tackle  Andrew Whitworth. The team knew Whitworth’s age, knew his contract was up at the end of the 2019 season and knew that the blindside offensive tackle is one of the most important roles on the team. Still, the team did nothing to secure a plan of succession for Whitworth’s departure.

Background – Andrew Whitworth is a shrewd veteran who seems to be ageless. Despite nearing the 40-year-old cliff, he continues to perform well enough to lead the Rams offensive line performance.  The Rams do not have a viable alternative to Whitworth on the offensive line.

Strengths – Whitworth is a big powerful man, and translates that into a fierce protector of his quarterback’s blindside. He is not only a savage player, but he must also wear the mantle of an on-field game-time coach for his younger teammates.

Weaknesses – How long can Whitworth perform at a high level? How long before he suffers an injury? Andrew Whitworth’s effectiveness on the football field will show some decline this year. How quickly will that decline show up?

Team Impact – The LA Rams need to re-sigh Whitworth, if for no other reason, then due to the fact that the team has no viable alternative.

Estimated market value – The fact that the LA Rams feel confident enough to publicly express that they feel a deal gets done suggests that both sides are close on terms.  The Rams can only afford about two-years at $9 million, and Whitworth agrees to stay on for two more seasons.

Projected team action – The LA Rams have already informally discussed with Whitworth’s agent about the likelihood of his return. Both parties are rumored to see no roadblocks.

Most likely team to sign him – Big Whit is postponing retirement to return to the LA Rams. It’s highly unlikely he would sign for another team.

Where to for Zuerlein?

The LA Rams are at a huge crossroads when it comes to how they handle the imminent free agency status of long time kicker Greg Zuerlein.  Do the Rams re-sign Zuerlein? Does the team draft a kicker, despite too few picks already? Or does the team simply decide to hold open tryouts?

Background – Zuerlein has been with the LA Rams since hearing his name called in the sixth round of the 2012 NFL Draft. He has been one of the NFL scoring leaders, putting up a ridiculous 158 points onto the scoreboard in 2017. He has been declining in both scoring and accuracy in 2018 and 2019.

Strengths – Greg Zuerlein has been a strong kicker in the NFL over his career. His 82 percent career accuracy is excellent. He has a career accuracy over 50 yards of better than 60 percent but was over 71 percent accurate at that distance in 2019.

Weaknesses – His overall accuracy has declined over the past two years. That decline has hurt the Rams, who have lost games with the difference being a missed field goal.

Team Impact – A reliable kicker is critical for the Rams. If they fail to re-sign Zuerlein, the team will need to look to the draft or to UDFAs to sign a new kicker.

Estimated market value – The LA Rams don’t have it to pay it. I think the team can keep Zuerlein around, but at a discounted rate. Perhaps a two-year deal at $3.6 million.

Projected team action – The Rams will likely make an attempt to get Zuerlein back in 2020 but at a discounted price. If he walks, you can expect the Rams to land a kicker in either the 2020 NFL Draft or sign several as undrafted free agents.

Most likely team to sign him – The LA Rams will certainly be a top priority. If that does not happen, the Dallas Cowboys may be a possibility.

Bottles back from NFL Free Agency?

Poor quarterback Blake Bortles enters NFL Free Agency at one of the worst possible years ever. He will struggle to find a home in 2020’s crowded quarterback market.

Background – QB Blake Bortles was a starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars who hit free agency in 2019. The LA Rams signed him to a one-year deal as their backup quarterback.

Strengths – Bortles is a veteran quarterback of six NFL seasons.  As such, he’s “been there, done that” in terms of running an NFL offense. He has thrown for over 17K yards passing and has 103 touchdown passes to 75 interceptions. He is a big guy, standing 6-foot-5 and weighing 236 pounds.

Weaknesses – Despite his sized, he has a career completion percentage of under 60 percent. The Rams may want more from their backup.

Team Impact – The Rams have options for a backup, including the 2020 NFL Draft. If the team does not re-sign Bortles to a team-friendly contract, the Rams will be tempted to select one of the 2020 talented quarterbacks. Now that the Rams hold a compensatory pick in round three, they could be tempted to select quarterback Jalen Hurts on day two.

Estimated market value –  QB Blake Bortles hits the NFL Free Agency market at the worst possible time. He simply does not inspire NFL GM’s to write big checks.  Estimate a two-year deal worth $2.5 million

Projected team action – The Rams need a backup QB, and Bortles should know he needs to come cheap to return to the Rams.

Most likely team to sign him – If the LA Rams do not bring him back, he may sit out the 2020 season.

Thomas enters NFL Free Agency

The LA Rams have invested quite a bit into the receivers, particularly when the team signed Brandin Cooks to a huge payday. That doesn’t bode well for the hopes of projected wide receiver  Mike Thomas, who is now also seeking his one renewed contract.

Background – Mike Thomas was a sixth-round draft pick for the LA Rams in the 2016 NFL Draft. At the time, he was projected as a potential developmental player. Standing 6-foot-1 and weighing 186-pounds, he projected as a slot receiver and special teams player.

Strengths – He flashed some potential in 2016 and 2017. He started one game in 2017. In that year, he caught five passes out of seven thrown his way and averaged 18.6 yards per completion.

Weaknesses – He’s had a storied history. In 2017, he served a four-game suspension for violating the league’s ban on performance-enhancing drugs. He spent the 2018 season on injured reserve.

Team Impact – He has served on the Rams’ special teams for the majority of his career. He has not seen action on the team’s offense.

Estimated market value – Thomas has simply not shown up in the Rams stats sheet to have leverage for a bigger payday.  Look for a multi-year team-friendly contract averaging under $1 million / year if he finds a team in need of WR depth.

Projected team action – The LA Rams will likely pass on making him an offer.

Most likely team to sign him – There will likely be a very shallow market for Thomas in 2020. He could sign on with an NFL team for a special team’s role.  As such, the Dallas Cowboys may call.

Backup-bound Blythe?

The LA Rams lose another offensive lineman from their Super Bowl LIII roster as interior offensive lineman Austin Blythe prepares for free agency and the likelihood he won’t be playing for the LA Rams

Background – Blythe was one of the players responsible for restoring some confidence in the offensive line in 2019.

Strengths – He is a versatile veteran. He plugs and plays in three of the LA Rams offensive line roles, both guards and center.

Weaknesses – He is a jack of all trades and master of none. He can be incredibly valuable at plugging holes in the offensive line at a number of positions. But he won’t be the league leader at any role.

Team Impact – Losing Blythe may carry a far greater impact on the team than expected. He was the second-most steadfast lineman next to left tackle Andrew Whitworth, and he came at an incredibly good value.

Estimated market value – Blythe has more value to the Rams than elsewhere. He could sign a four-year deal for as much as $6 million. He is 27 years old and has NFL starting experience.

Projected team action – Rams GM Les Snead mentioned communicating with Blythe’s agent, so a better than 50/50 shot of the team re-signing him. The Rams have already invested heavily in the offensive line. Blythe will add to that value if retained. But he carries more value to the Rams than to other teams.

Most likely team to sign him – unfortunately, both the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks are constantly shopping for interior offensive linemen. If the LA Rams do not resign him, he could end up on a conference rival.