LA Rams release RB Todd Gurley, 7 NFL teams likely to sign him

Now that the LA Rams have parted ways with running back Todd Gurley, he may sign with any team. Here are five NFL teams likely to do exactly that

The LA Rams made a blockbuster move today, March 19, 2020.  Not the type of blockbuster moves by adding an NFL star to significant draft picks, but the other kind.  The unattractive business side of the NFL.  In short, the LA Rams cut players. But not just anyone. The team cut star running back Todd Gurley.

The NFL owns the throne of professional sports in the USA for the time being. And the LA Rams have certainly done their part to contribute to the popularity of professional football. Not only do the Rams excel at what they’ve done on the football field, but the team has been very entertaining in the off-season as fans, sportswriters, and pundits try to keep up with the spectrum of personnel decisions, coaching changes, and contracts performed by the team.

Excellence is temporal in the NFL, which has the unofficial reference to Not-For-Long as well.  So far, the Rams have not done much to encourage fans’ hopes for success in 2020.  Cutting the team’s feature running back after just five incredibly productive seasons tends to be disappointing news.

But today’s news was more about the team’s failure to manage their salary cap effectively.  While it has led to the Rams’ release of Gurley, that simply translates into questions about what can the Rams do going forward, and where will Gurley land?

Cap offset in play

Curiously enough, the two questions have common elements for the Rams fans.  After all, the team’s salary cap is a big deal, since it drives the team’s decisions on who they can sign, and who they must release.  To that end, the Rams’ fans will be watching where and for how much Todd Gurley signs elsewhere

The reason that is important is that the Rams will take an additional $8.4 million hit to their cap in 2021.  From that amount, the Rams will be able to offset (or reduce the salary cap impact) whatever Gurley’s next contract amount is, up to a maximum of $2.5 million.  That will bring the team’s 2021 hit down to $5.9 million.

Of course, NFL.com’s Michael Silver saw it coming in December 2019.  We reported his suspicions in January 2020. He continued to report on the situation, and remind everyone that the relationship was fragile at best.

With all this in mind, the team had 75 days to develop an exit strategy. Their strategy did nothing.  The team had an option to approach renegotiating the lofty contract terms with the player and his agent to a more market-based amount.  That team also had the option to a restructuring of the contract terms to significantly reduce the salary cap impact in 2020, and allow the team to spend money on other critical positions. Neither option was executed.  Ultimately, the team decided that running back Todd Gurley did not offer enough value to remain on the team’s roster at his current price.

So what can Gurley offer an NFL team?

Reports of running back Todd Gurley’s NFL career demise are extremely premature. Even in a “down year”, Gurley’s production is far above an NFL running back’s normal production. The greatest hurdle to Gurley’s career before today was being paid money far in excess of his production on the field.

Now, economics and production can realign.  He might be a feature back on a team with a strong blocking fullback. He may be a leading rusher to a running back by committee situation. After all the trends, analytics, and money ball reports are pushed to the side, Gurley continues to gain yards, put the ball into the endzone, and contribute heavily to the success of his offense and team.

Now, where can he be expected to draw interest? Per Ian Rapoport, three teams are the Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Atlanta Falcons. That same topic mentioned by Adam Schefter indicated that the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons were the two teams investigating a trade option for Gurley earlier in the week.  Let’s explore our seven most likely teams to land him.

Bucs

The first team Gurley would likely land on is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  After all, what a great housewarming gift for arriving quarterback Tom Brady to find, then a new offensive threat in the backfield.  In 2019, the Buccaneers generated just 1,521 yards of rushing offense. That was only good enough for 24th in the NFL.

While the LA Rams finished at 26th in the NFL with only 1,499 yards, Gurley alone accounted for 857 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.

The Buccaneers would be an intriguing landing spot for Gurley. While the team already boasts running back Ronald Jones, Gurley would be an excellent alternate rusher for the team. With the addition of Brady under center, Gurley as an addition to that offense would virtually guarantee the team would pack the stadium.

Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are an offensive dynamo which would be even more electric with the addition of Gurley in the backfield. Where the Buccaneers were only good enough for 24th in the NFL, the Chiefs were only one better, ranked 23rd.  Nobody noticed the limits in the running game, because Patrick Mahomes is so proficient in the passing game.

The most yards rushed by a Chiefs running back in 2019 was 498 yards by Damien Williams.  The most touchdowns by a Chiefs running back? Just five by Williams. Gurley would add a completely new dimension to the Chiefs running game.

But the Super Bowl defending Chiefs want running backs who can catch passes. Despite the down season for Gurley in that department in 2019, catching passes is right in his wheelhouse.

The Chiefs’ offense has no difficulty scoring with a rather pedestrian committee of running backs.  Imagine the upgrade by adding a far more effective Gurley?

Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals found an incredible opportunity to shed the burdensome contract of running back David Johnson and picking up the Houston Texans’ wide receiver Deandre Hopkins. Now, those same Cardinals could end up with sliding in running back Todd Gurley to take the role vacated by David Johnson.

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That alone would be a nice upgrade for the Cards running game.

But this is a rival NFC West team, and rivals love to make roster moves to give their team a distinct advantage. Former players of rivals, particularly one so instrumental in the offensive prowess of the LA Rams since head coach Sean McVay arrived in 2017, have more than face value as they would give the Cards additional help understanding their opponents in six of the 2020 games.

The Arizona Cardinals have been aggressive in the 2020 NFL Free Agency market. Signing Gurley would simply be an extension of their “ready to compete” mindset. The Cards already have a great situation for Gurley, where he would be adding about 100-150 carries throughout the season. But an even more attractive component of Gurley to the Cardinals is using him as a receiver out of the backfield. He could easily be the flagship running back in the passing game, where he would be a very dangerous weapon in the Cardinals high-octane aerial assault.

Eagles

Yes yes yes, the Philadelphia Eagles have Miles Sanders. But they lost Jordan Howard, retired Darren Sproles, and with their outbreak of injuries in recent years, so it would be very wise to add depth in the backfield. And running back Todd Gurley is more than “depth”.

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Despite his youth, Gurley is a veteran of significant experience, particularly in the company of Eagles running backs Sanders, Boston Scott, and whomever the team may add to the teams 55 man roster in 2020.

Do not think that the Eagles are interested in pushing 300 carries onto one running back. That’s just not the track record of head coach Doug Pederson, and he won’t change that tradition this year. Despite the depth of running back in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Eagles have all the youth that roster needs.

What they do need is a flexible, versatile, and savvy weapon to add to the offense. The Eagles offense, like so many modern NFL offenses, emphasizes a running back who is dangerous at both running and catching the ball. As we’ve mentioned before, that is Gurley’s specialty. Perhaps even more important is the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles only scored seven times on the ground all season. Gurley, in a down season, scored nearly double that amount behind an arguably bad offensive line

Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons make complete sense. In fact, the Atlanta Falcons was the only NFL team mentioned as a possible landing spot for Gurley by both Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter. That is due to the Falcons loss of running back Devonta Freeman when the Falcons released him as a salary cap casualty.

The parting of ways between Freeman and the Falcons has paved the way for the Falcons to negotiate a more team-friendly situation in a contract with Gurley. The vacated role by Freeman is the role Gurley is most perfectly suited to fill in his next chapter. While still a feature running back, he would not be expected to carry more than 200 times in a season.

Plus there is the added incentive of the Falcons signing his teammate Dante Fowler Jr. to a new contract. While some might discount that element, players will often use teammates to distinguish between two competitive bids.

Right now, it may not be about winning a Super Bowl ring. It may simply be to prove to himself, the Rams, and to the NFL that he still has it to put up big chunks of yardage. If that is indeed the case, then the Atlanta Falcons will give an ideal opportunity to do exactly that.

Seahawks

We talked about the incentive of a division rival to sign Todd Gurley, if for nothing more than the advantage he would give for six games in an NFL season. But the Seattle Seahawks already have feature running back Chris Carson, and a backup in Rashaad Penney, so why would the Seahawks even place a call to inquire?

Well, to fill the role of Marshawn Lynch for starters. But adding Gurley does more than add an insurance policy to the team in case of injury. Gurley is both a runner and a receiver. And the Seahawks need more receiving weapons.

Ultimately, any team intending to improve will need to adapt to the skills of players. But Gurley on any team in the NFC West Division is a solid addition.  The Seahawks offense would adapt to feature Gurley in the offense if he comes aboard.

Saints

Imagine the problems caused if Todd Gurley signs with the New Orleans Saints? The Saints already have some incredible weapons on that offense, led by quarterback Drew Brees. There is wide receiver Michael Thomas, and running back Alvin Kamara.

Some already see Gurley as a strong fit on the Saints offense, as a swap for running back Latavius Murray. The option to add Gurley and then decide to use or trade out RB Latavius Murray would be a problem most NFL general managers would love to face.

Gurley would add his potential to that already found on the Saints in both the running game and passing game. While he would still have the potential to deliver big, the offense would not be so desperately dependant upon him to create the team’s momentum, opportunities, and scoring opportunities.

While his box stats may decline due to the ball distribution among so many weapons of this team’s offense, Gurley would remain a highly productive and dangerous offensive threat. One niche that would fit his ability is that of a runner who can punch it into the end zone. The Saints offense only scored 11 rushing TDs, while Gurley scored 12 in a down season.

Casual fans won’t agree that Todd Gurley upgrades a team’s offense. But the facts, and the personnel department professions of many NFL teams, say otherwise.