Rams News: Run it back for the LA Rams running game

The LA Rams running game is the foundation of McVay’s offense. But many have misjudged the team’s new players. Let’s run it back one more time

The LA Rams have relied upon running back Todd Gurley to carry the team’s rushing offense almost single-handedly under head coach Sean McVay‘s offense. He fulfilled that trust, as he was a devastatingly effective runner and receiver for the Rams, peaking in 2018 when he put up a combined 1,831 yards from the line of scrimmage, as well as 21 touchdowns. That’s pretty good work at half that production. Well, virtually half that production is what the Rams got in 2019. And it wasn’t the production that mattered as much as the incredibly burdensome contract laden with guaranteed money and poison-pill clauses.

In short, the return on investment fell. And that triggered the Rams release.

What remained was a Rams running back corps designed to support Gurley as the team’s featured back. The team had Malcolm Brown as the between-the-tackles rusher who could pound the ball inside. The team had Darrell Henderson, who could race to the perimeter and put up some yards after the catch if the Rams could get him open in space. And the team brought back John Kelly, who was a surprise demotion to the practice squad in 2019. Kelly fills the role of familiarity and insurance, the running back whose performance was promising enough to keep him on the team for future development.

That future is now. Unfortunately, there is a bit of confusion about the Rams 2020 offense. Who will handle the load? Who will provide a supporting role for the main runner? And what is the most likely depth chart for the LA Rams this year for running back?

Begin at the end

So how can we form a good grasp of the Rams 2020 offense with so little information to go on? For starters, let’s examine the projections of national sports media ESPN in terms of the 2020 running offense.

But we also know that the Rams paid a high cost in 2019 for valuable lessons learned. The offensive line was overmatched practically out of the blocks last season.  That disrupted the Rams’ entire offense and upset the timing on the passing game as well as the rushing lanes for the offense. It was not until December 2019 when the Rams finally devised effective counter-measures, going with two-tight-ends out of desperation, and finally forcing defenses off the line of scrimmage. Those lessons will likely help the Rams move the ball on the ground this year.

In their latest 2020 projections of fantasy football running backs, ESPN has the following predictions for the LA Rams current running backs:

Name                           Carries    Yards    TDs   Rec  Yards   TDs    Total points
Darrell Henderson         141       582       5       40    323       1        165.34
Cam Akers                        173      720       7       18     142       1        148.41
Malcolm Brown                 31      128       2         9        72       0           39.53
John Kelly                              0           0        0         0          0        0             0.00
Totals                                 345    1,430   17       67     537      2          353.28

That compares to the 2019 totals of 334 carries, 1,268 yards, 17 TDs,  37 rec, 260 yards, 2 TDs. So they are in the ballpark of comparison to the previous year. But some things simply seem out of place.

We know that the LA Rams offense loves to run the ball and that 2019 was a huge anomaly. In 2019, the Rams passed far more often than in previous seasons. They did so because the team reduced the workload of the featured back Todd Gurley by eliminating running plays from the offense.  With rookie Cam Akers playing for the Rams in 2020, what happens if we simply restore those rushes to his workload, and see what happens?

Norm running play distribution

The LA Rams 2019 lessons will play a huge role into the 2020 NFL season. Of course, getting healthy on the offensive line will be a huge advantage for the Rams this season. But the team, through a series of trial and errors, learned how to make more of what little blocking the team had last year.  Using that as a foundation to build a running game upon in 2020 is a second huge advantage. Now all that remains is how productive to project rookie running back Cam Akers.

Well, the projection for rookie running back Cam Akers I will rely upon suggests that he will average better than 4.1 yards-per-carry.  As a rookie getting his first chance to show up and show off in the Rams offense, a 4.4 yards-per-carry average on this offense seems more realistic. Next, if we move several carries from Darrell Henderson towards Malcolm Brown and restore the lost 2018 carries to rookie Cam Akers workload, what might that look like?

Name                           Carries    Yards    TDs   Rec  Yards   TDs    Total points
Darrell Henderson         101       417       4      30      242      1       124.98
Cam Akers                        230   1,018     10     18      221      2        225.61
Malcolm Brown                 31      128       3         9        72       0          46.53
John Kelly                              0           0        0         0          0        0            0.00
Totals                                 362    1,563    17       57     535      3         397.12

That appears to be more in line with the skillsets of the players on this offense, and their specific roles in the 2020 offense for the team. And it compares favorably to the LA Rams pre-2019 offense.

The Rams may hit a home run with RB Darrell Henderson, but his role is already defined by his change-of-pace run to daylight speed. The Rams may also a home run with Malcolm Brown, but his role is defined by spots in the game to keep Cam Akers’ legs fresh. Or the Rams may find a niche role for another running back.

But the wheelbarrow is loaded for Cam Akers. The Rams offense, without change, is a one-back featured offense that keeps defenses on their toes by running the ball effectively and then passing with pinpoint accuracy. As much as Cam Akers was built for the LA Rams offense, the LA Rams offense was built for Cam Akers.