Sky is not falling on LA Rams offense in 2020

The LA Rams will remain a top NFL passing offense in 2020

The sky is not falling on the LA Rams offense, running game, or passing game in 2020, chicken little. But you wouldn’t know that from the reports bombarding the national sports media right now. The latest of which is the precipitous drop in the projected 2020 passing game rankings by our friends over at Pro Football Focus, in their latest projections of 2020 NFL teams rankings of their passing offense.

Behind a shaky offensive line, the LA Rams remained one of the NFL elite passing offenses, ranking fourth in the entire NFL. Even if you factor out the higher volume of attempts, the Rams were 13th in the league in average yards per attempt. While the Rams did lose WR Brandin Cooks, the team will likely promote wide receiver Josh Reynolds, add rookie wide receiver Van Jefferson, look to pass the ball more to both tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, and even add a new tight end target to the mix in rookie Brycen Hopkins.

Rams’ offense reputation falling from the sky

Somehow that will drop the Rams to 15th in the league? Only three teams had better passing offenses than the LA Rams in 2019: Tampa Bay Buccanneers, Dallas Cowboys, and the Atlanta Falcons. That’s it.

Which teams are ranked above the Rams in PFFs projection? Bucs, Kansas City Chiefs, Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, LA Chargers, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, and Philadelphia Eagles.  Of the group, the Broncos, Browns, Bills, and Cardinals were ranked in the bottom ten in 2019.

I’m all for optimism for teams welcoming new rookie quarterbacks.  But rankings set this early in the season are entirely speculation and controversial, aching for fans to click, view, review, and debate. Passing offense depends upon the quarterback, the receiver, the timing, and even the game situation. The Rams situation hasn’t changed for 2020.

Set the record straight, again

Amidst the LA Rams chaos of 2019’s fall from 13-3 to 9-7, the offensive line lost all starters but left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Immediately following the season, both Whitworth and Austin Blythe had clean-up surgery, suggesting that they were playing injured for some part through the end of last season.  And the Rams’ passing offense was fourth-best in the NFL.

Rams wide receiver Brandin Cooks attracted 72 passes and recorded just 583 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. He caught just 42 of those passes, good for just a 58.3 percent accuracy when thrown his way.  All that and the Rams passing offense was still fourth-best in the NFL.

The story should follow facts

So when PFF writer Ben Linsey cites the following for his precipitous drop in the ranking by the Rams:

"“The Rams will have to replace Brandin Cooks with either Van Jefferson or Josh Reynolds… Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp is still a pretty nice combination …, and both Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee can pose a threat as receivers from the tight end position. … The big question for the Rams on offense is how well their offensive line can hold up for Jared Goff to get the ball out to those weapons.” – Ben Linsey of PFF"

The narrative doesn’t fit the ranking, period. If the poor offensive line play in 2019 was good enough for a fourth-place ranking, how can that same factor be used to justify dropping the Rams to 15th?

Real reason Rams remain right atop NFL passing rankings

The LA Rams passing offense will not shrivel up and disappear. In fact, the opposite is far more likely. After all, the LA Rams have added an entirely new role as offensive coordinator of Kevin O’Connell. His specialty is designing quick high percentage passes to place all the pressure on the defense and off the quarterback to get a positive rhythm going in the game. Once that passing game has the defense on their heels, the running game kicks in to move the chains

When head coach Sean McVay arrived at the NFL, his first season in 2017 found the LA Rams passing game ranked at tenth in the NFL.  In 2018, his second season found the LA Rams passing offense ranked at fifth in the NFL, despite losing WR Cooper Kupp. in 2019, his third season found the LA Rams passing game ranked fourth in the NFL, despite the constant injuries to the offensive line.

Rams roster loaded with receivers

Yet 2020 the team will drop back to 15th? That seems incredibly unlikely, particularly when you look at the LA Rams roster.  The Rams have veteran Jared Goff at quarterback and are not trying to integrate a new quarterback virtually this season.  The team boasts two 1000 yard receivers in the very dependable Robert Woods and his teammate Cooper Kupp, who is playing for his second contract.

When the LA Rams offense needed to rely upon Josh Reynolds, he delivered. His 53 targets in 2018 were the highest of his career, and propelled him to 402 receiving yards and five touchdowns. While the Rams will need to redistribute Cooks 72 targets, the team will also be shifting some of the passes targetting running back Todd Gurley as well.  That’s over 100 passes to account for, and just 750 yards to replace. Even if the team completely ignores their rookies (they won’t), that would easily be absorbed by Reynolds, Higbee, and Everett.

No, the sky is not falling on the LA Rams passing game. Quite the contrary. This could be the dawn of an even brighter tomorrow.