Very doable: LA Rams roster and retaining 2022 free agents

The LA Rams have worked and reworked the 2021 roster to have what the organization believes is the best chance to win this season. That is nothing new, as all 32 teams go through a similar process, all with the same goal in mind: Win the Super Bowl. The art of roster building is understanding where to invest the limited salary cap dollars, and where not to.

The LA Rams have elected to focus their dollars among a half-dozen or so elite game-changers. Pay them, let them elevate the play of the other players on the football field, and win games that way. So far, the Rams’ unmatched success over the past five years suggests that the team is onto something.

But now, the same potent 2021 Rams roster appears to be primed for a massive exodus of some of the best talent in the NFL for the 2022 NFL Free Agency market. 19 total players, of which 12 will become Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs), three will be Restricted Free Agents (RFAs), and four will be Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs).

If you have missed that minor detail, the LA Rams have added players to the roster this year with only one year remaining on their contract. Players like wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., outside linebacker Von Miller, running back Sony Michel, were all signed up or traded for with the foreknowledge that in 2022, they would all be in need of a new NFL team to play for. |

The projected list for the LA Rams project free agents can be found at Spotrac.com. Using the same source, Spotrac.com projects the team’s 2022 salary cap to have approximately $7.2 million to spend next year.

While the amount of cap space is less important at this point, Spotrac.com has the LA Rams projected to be the 27th-ranked NFL team in terms of available cap space, but with 39 players under contract for next season. How much money does the team have to spend? Right now, that number is estimated at just under $7.2 million.

Now, armed with the amount of money that the team has to spend, we can turn our attention to extending players for next year and beyond. How much will that cost? We can estimate the expense in terms of value to sign the projected free agents.

Unfortunately, that’s where it turns a bit pessimistic, as a quick and dirty estimate of contract values for 2022 indicates that the Rams need approximately $67.5 million of available cap space to extend all their potential free agents. We give you the breakdown on the next slide:

Rams projected 2022 Free Agents – $71.6 million

If you look back to 2021, the LA Rams did not make a huge effort to extend any of their free agents.  11 players, ranging from starters to rotational players, ended up signing new contracts with other NFL teams. Of the 2021 LA Rams free agents, the team re-signed outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, defensive back Darious Williams, offensive center Coleman Shelton, tight end Johnny Mundt, and inside linebacker Travin Howard.

With the need to fill spots of injured players, the Rams roster is fairly stocked for next season. Out of 53 players, the Rams currently have 39 players under contract. We also know that the Rams have eight picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Assuming that the team will welcome back all 2021 injured players into their previous roles, the team is looking at re-signing six or so of their projected free agents. So here is the breakdown:

Offense (10) – $31.8 million

Starters (4) – $20 million
WR Odell Beckham Jr. – estimated value 2022 contract – $5.0 million
OG Austin Corbett   – estimated value 2022 contract – $8.0 million
OC Brian Allen – estimated value 2022 contract – $5.0 million
PK Matt Gay (RFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $2.0 million

Rotational/Reserves (6) – $11.8 million
RB Sony Michel – estimated value 2022 contract– $2.5 million
TE Johnny Mundt – estimated value 2022 contract – $1.0 million
RB Buddy Howell – estimated value 2022 contract – $1.0 million
OC Coleman Shelton (RFA) – Qualifying offer: Right of First Refusal – $2.4 million
OT  Joseph Noteboom – estimated value 2022 contract – $4.0 million
QB John Wolford (ERFA) – estimated value 2025 contract – $825 K

Defense (9) – $39.8 million

Starters (3) – $25.8 million
OLB Von Miller – estimated value 2022 contract –  $7.5 million
DB Darious Williams – estimated value 2022 contract – $14 million
NT Sebastian Joseph Day – estimated value 2022 contract – $4.3 million

Rotational/Reserves (6)- $14 million
OLB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo – estimated value 2022 contract – $4.0 million
DB Dont’e Deayon – estimated value 2022 contract – $5.0 million
ILB Travin Howard (ERFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $825 K
DB Juju Hughes (ERFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $825 K
OLB Jamir Jones  (ERFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $825 K
Troy Reeder (RFA) – Qualifying offer: Right of First Refusal – $2.4 million

Of course, these are only estimates, but the aggregate effect on any available cap space is certainly quite clear. The Rams will not be able to keep everyone. Nor is it likely that the team will even try.

Who stays?

While there is certainly a lot of football remaining, the fact is that the team invested in young players with the expectation that they would be ready to compete for a starting role, or at the very least, a rotational role, in 2022.  But that may be hampered by the fact that so many rookies have been injured and lost for the rest of the 2021 NFL season.

So let’s examine who may be returning in 2022 from injury first, and see where the Rams can expect to be reinforced on the roster before the team goes about extending players to round out the roster.

Injured starters (not free agents)

From the moment that the LA Rams learned of a season-ending injury to projected starting running back, Cam Akers, the offensive game plan was hastily rewritten. Akers was going to be bell-cow running back, and that would be the ground game counterweight to the anticipated deep route running passing game. That deep passing game appeared, but without strong running to keep defenses honest, it evaporated just as quickly.

An equally negative impacting injury occurred at mid-season when veteran wide receiver Robert Woods injured his ACL in practice. Woods is the perfect complementary receiver to Cooper Kupp, and his play on the field goes far beyond catching the football.

The LA Rams lost an incredibly versatile linebacker when Justin Hollins fell to injury. A young talented tackler who is gifted at both the outside and inside linebacker roles, his absence forced the Rams to trade for veteran outside linebacker Von Miller at the trade deadline.

Injured role players (not free agents)

Running back Jake Funk‘s injury negated his progress as a returner, and eliminated the chance to earn a larger role on the offense.
The LA Rams had big plans for WR Tutu Atwell. Unfortunately, he never showed that NFL role-playing potential yet.
There was a lot of buzz over WR/TE Jacob Harris and his NFL potential. But he fell to injury before contributing to the offense.

Let’s go shopping – $12.7 million

So now that we have a basic idea of the Rams 2022 roster makeup of 39 players, and the intention of getting to a solid 53 starting capable roster, we can begin to shop for the free agents who will round out the team’s roster.

Of course, we know that the Rams will have a projected eight draft picks to use in the 2022 NFL Draft. But we know that the Rams will be shopping for future contributors, not immediate starters, in the draft. So how do the Rams find 14 players who can make their 53-man roster? Well, let’s dive right in.

Must extend (4) – estimated $9.3 million

The LA Rams may be looking at a lot of players, but of the group, there is a subset of ‘must extend’ players. What do I mean? Well, I think you will understand once we list them:

Placekicker Matt Gay (RFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $2.0 million – is the first must extend. We know full well that the LA Rams have almost no strong points on special teams besides the ability of Matt Gay to consistently put points on the scoreboard.

Quarterback John Wolford (ERFA) – estimated value 2025 contract – $825,000. Whether or not you believe in backup quarterback John Wolford, LA Rams head coach Sean McVay absolutely loves the guy. Of course, it’s easy to love a backup who is inexpensive and doesn’t play in games.

If the LA Rams want to bargain shop at the offensive line, then re-signing offensive center Coleman Shelton (RFA) – Qualifying offer: Right of First Refusal – $2.4 million – is the right choice. His cost is less than half of starter Brian Allen, yet his potential has a higher ceiling.

Another bargain basement offensive lineman – offensives tackle Joseph Noteboom – estimated value 2022 contract – $4.0 million – is a must. He has been groomed to step in cold at the left tackle position, and he has done so very effectively. Shopping for a starter at left tackle could set the team back $20 million or more.  With the likely retirement of the venerable Andrew Whitworth, the Rams cannot roll the dice at left tackle.

Too cheap to part with (4) – $3.5 million

ILB Travin Howard (ERFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $825 K
Travin Howard is a quality niche player for the Rams, with the ability to step into the defense or special teams.
DB Juju Hughes (ERFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $825 K
Juju Hughes is another quality player, a contributor to the Rams’ secondary and special teams.
OLB Jamir Jones  (ERFA) – estimated value 2022 contract – $825 K
Jamir Jones is a fierce snarler type of competitor who is at home on the football field in any role.
TE Johnny Mundt – estimated value 2022 contract – $1.0 million
Johnny Mundt is the LA Rams swiss-army knife. Without him, the offense appears to be completely lost.

If the Rams follow this route, the team will already be to 47 and need just 6 more quality players to round out their roster. Of course, that presumes that the team will not suffer any additional losses like retirements or waiving players who are not working out.  So now let’s look at the players who the team may bring back for 2022.

Discretionary spending (2)- $9.5 million

The LA Rams have made some significant “splashy” moves to add recognizable names to the roster. While it’s still far too early to determine that those players will pan out, we’ll proceed as though they do and that the Rams have a sincere interest in retaining them.

So who might the LA Rams be interested in adding, and what salary expense are we looking at? Now that is a very good question, isn’t it? While it’s very difficult to project how well the team, and the players, will do in the remainder of the 2021 NFL season and (hopefully) into the playoffs.

Von Miller – 2022 estimated cap hit $4.5 million

When the LA Rams traded a 2022 second-round and third-round pick for veteran outside linebacker Von Miller, the idea was not to rent the guy for the remainder of the 2021 NFL season, but rather to land a veteran player who can contribute to the team for a number of years. Von Miller is the defensive equivalent to offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth.

Using Leonard Floyd’s 2021 contract as a template, the Rams could give Von Miller a 4-year deal worth $30 million.  That could be managed into a 2022 salary cap hit of $4.5 million.

Odell Beckham Jr. – 2022 estimate cap hit $5 million

Another player added to the LA Rams roster is wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. While he is currently on a highly-incentivized one-year deal , the LA Rams could be very interested in getting him signed to a multi-year deal in the off-season

To do that, the Rams would likely try to get him on a four-year $25 million deal that would have a reasonal cap hit in 2022. Let’s assume that the numbers work, so the Rams could set the deal to be a $5 million cap hit in 2022.

Adding up the figures, the Rams will need to come up with an estimated $22.2 million of available funds to extend 10 players next year, plus the funds necessary to round out the 53-player roster. Let’s set that number at $30 million.  Right now, per Spotrac.com,  the LA Rams have just $7.2 million to play with. So where can the team free up the necessary $22.8 million?  Let’s find some spending cash:

Finding spending cash- savings ($38.2 million)

Yes, the LA Rams have some potential moves to make in order to adjust the roster and free up salary-cap space. But exactly how involved of a process are we looking at? It’s not nearly as creatively imaginative as you may think.  After all, the Rams are about to climb out from under suffocating dead cap space, so that is a huge plus.

The Rams can get to the magic $30 million with a few simple moves. In fact, the team could clear up to $45 million lickity-split. Say what? Yes, that’s how easy it becomes in the realm of the NFL salary cap and the methods of creative accounting. Let’s dive into how that could take place.

Extend Stafford – ($8 million) savings

This is the most complicated of the moves, and so we’ll tackle it first. In 2022, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will be on the last year of his contract, worth $23 million. But the Rams could lower that salary cap footprint by extending Stafford through the 2025 season. How? Well, if the team offers a four-year deal worth $120 million, the team could treat $40 million of the contract like a signing bonus. Then, the team could commit to a salary of $5 million, $15 million, $20 million, and $20 million.

The net effect of that contract would lower Stafford’s 2022 salary cap impact to $15 million ($5 million + $40 million / 4 years), or a net savings of $8 million.

Whitworth retirement – ($13 million) savings

The LA Rams certainly are getting their money’s worth out of veteran offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth. But the relationship may end in 2022, as Big Whit may seek retirement at the ripe old agge of 40. Likewise, although Whitworth is delivering huge value for the Rams, the team may make an obvious business decision to go with the younger, and far less expensive option of Joseph Noteboom in 2022.

Whether or not Whitworth decides this is the time to hang up the cleats, the Rams could get out from under $13 million in 2022. That much money can enable the Rams to re-sign eight players back to the roster next season. It seemed very clear that Andrew Whitworth would retire at 40 years old. I say he does, and saves the team a whopping ($13 million) by doing so.

Restructure Ramsey contract – $11.2 million savings

The way some team’s save money is simple. It’s an accounting trick of recategorizing one type of compensation into another form of compensation. Unless you are studying for your CPA exam, here is all you need to know.

Per Spotrac.com, the Rams can restructure Jalen Ramsey’s contract and generate an ($11.2 million) salary cap savings in 2022. No, that does NOT mean that the Rams will pay him any less. What that does is take that 2022 charge of $11.2, and spread it out over 2023-2026. Ramsey still gets paid the same amount each year. It’s simply a change in how the Rams reflect those payments.

Restructure Donald’s contract – $6.1 million savings

In a very similar move, the LA Rams have an option of restructuring the contract with Aaron Donald, generating a salary cap saving of ($6.1 million). Again this method takes a salary sum of $6.1 million out of 2022, and spreads it out over 2023-24.

Why is this amount nearly half of the savings from Ramsey’s restructure? Donald’s contract ends two years sooner, so there is less time to spread the savings from 2022 across. That has an impact on the savings realized next year.

With four actions, the LA Rams can amass enough salary cap space to retain 10 key players, and theoretically still have money to spend. We’ve shown a path to free up to $45 million of avalable salary cap funds. Will the Rams act to clear that much cap space? Perhaps. But the more important point is that the Rams will indeed have the option to create plenty of cap space next year, enough to retain nearly any pending free agent the team wishes to extend.

But there is one very important caveat. For every player that the Rams seek to re-sign, that money cannot be used to retain another player. So there is a cost of who the teams chooses to retain.  So if you have been fretting over the Rams roster, fear not. They have the power to extend Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr., and a whole lot more if they choose to do so.