Why LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford won’t wither in cold weather

Well, it’s that holiday time of year, when the smells of roasted turkey and pumpkin pie fill the kitchen, while the sounds of NFL Football fill the living or entertainment room. For the true NFL/NCAAF aficionado, this is when the going gets tough and the tough get going.  And for the fans of the LA Rams, it’s a time when the season heats up.

After all, the team has given them plenty to cheer about since hiring head coach Sean McVay this time of year, right?  At this time of the season in the past, the LA Rams had a record of 7-3 in 2017, 10-1 in 2018, 6-4 in 2019, and 7-3 in 2020. So Thanksgiving week has truly been a time of giving thanks to fans.

But it came with its own share of challenges. Thanksgiving typically marks that time of year when temperatures plummet, and NFL Playoff races heat up. And so, the LA Rams now face their first ‘cold weather’ risk in traveling to Green Bay Wisconsin for their Week 12 matchup against the Green Bay Packers, and the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. This year, the LA Rams step onto the frozen tundra led by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Critical Aspect I: Can Matthew Stafford win a high-profile game?

This is a contest that has significance in several critical ways. First and foremost, it is the preview of what could occur in the NFC Playoffs, as both the Rams and Packers are among the NFC Conference’s best teams as the season begins to wind down. Since the LA Rams trail the NFC West Division-leading Arizona Cardinals, the Rams are likely to end up as a Wild Card team, which means the Rams will be traveling throughout the playoffs.

The LA Rams have earned their 7-3 record so far in the 2021 NFL season. But of the seven victories, the Rams have defeated just two NFL teams with winning records: The Indianapolis Colts and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their three losses have all come at the hands of teams with records at or better than .500.

One of the dark sides of Matthew Stafford that was his precursor was his inability to win a big game. Of course, much of that narrative focused upon his inability to win a playoff game, having gone winless in three attempts throughout his career. In the trade to the LA Rams, he must now reconcile those struggles with leading a team intending to play, and win, in the playoffs each season.

Critical Aspect II: Can Matthew Stafford win in cold weather?

The LA Rams are an NFL team with a bad reputation when the weather turns colder. But that reputation has some evidence supporting their bad reputation. In fact, in a recent article detailing the Climate and Sports relationship, the LA Rams are shown to be the worst NFL offense in cold weather, generating just 269.5 total yards per game when the temperatures dip below 40 degrees.

But in that same article, the relationship goes on to investigate the passing proficiency of NFL quarterbacks in cold weather. And folks, I am proud to say that despite at times throwing to lesser-known receivers and playing on less accomplished teams, veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with an average of 285.1 average passing yards per game in temperatures that fall below 40 degrees. The list of other quarterbacks who trail Stafford includes Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, and this week’s opponent, Aaron Rodgers.

"“Over the last three years, Matthew Stafford has balled out in cold weather! . . . twice. Both of those games were in Week 17, which is the regular season’s version of the preseason’s Week 4.” – per Matthew Freeman of Fantasylabs.com"

Will that hold true this season?

Stafford sizzles in sub-freezing forecasts

While the temperate climate of Los Angeles will eventually negate Stafford’s anti-freeze performance at excelling in the cold, that should not be the case in 2021. Now, the only question is, how cold will it get at Lambeau Field this Sunday?

Per Weather Underground, the temperature at kickoff (1:25 pm PT/3:25 pm CT) is forecasted to be 36 degrees Fahrenheit, with winds out of the WNW at 10-11 miles per hour. The temperature and wind speed will fall throughout the game, to a sub-freezing 30 degrees and winds out of the WNW at 7-8 mph. Due to the cold and wind, the temperature will feel as cold as 22 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the game.

If the LA Rams were starting former quarterback Jared Goff, this would be a huge challenge. You see, Goff struggled mightily in cold weather. He was the likely reason behind the LA Rams coming in dead last in cold weather offensive rankings.

Don’t look for that this year. The fact is that when the weather cools off, Matthew Stafford simply heats up folks. Since he is riding atop the NFL heap on frigid football fields, Stafford should be able to direct the LA Rams offense to success in Week 12.

Critical Aspect III: Can Matthew Stafford play smarter?

In the past two games, the play of veteran QB Matthew Stafford has been uninspiring, to say the least. In two games, he has completed 57 of 89 passes for 537 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. But truth be told, he didn’t exactly enter those two games with a winning game plan.

In 2020, Stafford rebounded from a similar struggle with a 24 of 33, 276 yards, three-touchdown performance against a pretty good Washington Football team on November 15, 2020. Similarly, he rebounded after a horrible season opener in 2018 to go 34 of 53, 347 yards, and three touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers on September 16, 2018.

The truth is that even as the LA Rams try to get their offensive house in order, quarterback Matthew Stafford is a long-running veteran of games involving teams from the NFC North. He is not waiting for Rams head coach Sean McVay to fix the offense. Rather, he has been working with his receivers to develop the time of chemistry and communication that he needs to win games down the stretch.

Ready for a rebound?

More often than not, Stafford has gotten better in the latter part of the season. Perhaps never has that been more important than the 2021 NFL season. Since his arrival on the LA Rams roster, Stafford has already thrown to 11 different players.  Of course, he threw to 16 different receivers in 2020 with the Detroit Lions, and to 18 different receivers in 2018 with the same Lions. So Stafford is no stranger to working with new talent over the course of the NFL season.

Even after the LA Rams BYE week, he remains the third-best quarterback in terms of passing yards, yards per game, and touchdown passes (pending Tom Brady’s Monday Night Football performance). He also remains the highest-rated quarterback so far this season.

That is compelling evidence. In short, the LA Rams offense should benefit from a Stafford rebound, a rebound that appears to be taking shape to occur in Week 12. Even as the Green Bay Packers is a tough defense to move the ball and score against, they’ve just lost a shoot out to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11.

Yes, Stafford can play smarter, and will this week. The team knows that they will be facing a wounded Green Bay Packers team on their turf, a very dangerous combination. To emerge with a victory, the team will need to put up their best overall game of the season.  I have faith in the Rams, and quarterback Matthew Stafford, to do exactly that.