LA Rams complete 2022 restricted free agent ranking

If you do not feel a bit better about the LA Rams free agency situation just yet, be patient. It will happen. After all, it’s tough to recognize the fact that the team has just endured two years with dead cap money that would cripple a normal team. What do we mean? Well, thanks to Spotrac.com, we can give you a summary of the past three seasons salary cap status:

Click here for 2019 – Dead cap of $13,604,018
Click here for 2020 – Dead cap of $38,466,148
Click here for 2021 – Dead cap of $48,994,418
Click here for 2022 – Dead cap of         $242,002

There. Starting to feel better? It’s okay. It will happen. Give it time.

The LA Rams are back in the thick of things. After all, the organization has just won its third NFC West Division title in five seasons. Looking ahead, if the top-seeded playoff teams win throughout the playoffs (as well as the Rams), the LA Rams will host the Arizona Cardinals, travel to face the Green Bay Packers, travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then return home to face the Tennessee Titans. Four games.

The Rams have not played to their full potential yet

This does feel like a team that has a date with destiny. Did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel any different last year? They were heavily touted early in the season, but they entered the NFL Playoffs on a four-game winning streak against less than difficult opponents. But it was all they needed to get hot at the right time of the season. Will the Rams follow a similar trajectory? Or will the cries to fire coaches, letting visiting fans take over SoFi Stadium, and a general malaise be the order of the day?

At least nobody can honestly say that the organization fell asleep at the wheel. Sure, the team may have been aggressive in patching together a roster that has been hammered with untimely injuries at some of the most critical positions. But GM Les Snead did something about it. Whether or not we like his moves, he moved. Whether or not we loved the additions, he added players. And whether or not he paid a premium price or a discounted deal, he ante’d up and paid the bill.

Let’s see where that leaves the team as we begin to pivot from the 2021 NFL Season to the 2022 NFL Season.

These Rams are doing it the LA Rams way

While we settle in in our demands to fire and sign players, coaches, and executives, the LA Rams front office has truly stepped up for the team in a way that tests the entire roster-building process in the NFL. One universal rule of thumb is for NFL GMs to never trade away draft picks. From the 2022 NFL Draft alone, the Rams have traded away their first, second, third, fourth, and sixth-round draft picks.  Hmm. If you want to know when the LA Rams will make their selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, click on this link.

Another universal rule of thumb is never to allow Dead cap money to claim more than $15 million of the overall NFL salary cap allotment. And yet, the LA Rams front office has allowed more than $101,074,584 in Dead cap money over the past three seasons. That averages out to $33,691,528 in unavailable funds per year over each of the past three seasons.

What have the Rams done over the past three seasons?

2019 – Win   9  Loss 7
2020 – Win 10  Loss 6  – NFL Playoffs,sixth-seed
2021 – Win  12 Loss 5  – NFC West Division Title, NFL Playoffs, fourth-seed

And yet, there is a bit of unrest from fans in the comment sections, in fan forums, and amidst social medial. That’s okay. With a combined record of 54 wins and 26 losses over the past five years, expectations have skyrocketed.

Rams know a player’s real value

One of the ways that the Rams have succeeded is having a great feel for the value of a player when it comes to free agency. Even as fans have lobbied, pleaded, and even begged for the team to extend their favorite players, many players show a substantial drop in productive statistics after leaving the LA Rams organization. Whether it’s a starting quarterback named Jared Goff, a starting defensive back named John Johnson III, or even a young and rapidly developing defensive end named Morgan Fox, the grass seldom seems to be greener on the other side of the fence.

And so, the LA Rams must rework the roster once more, and while they may not be tasked with that objective for another month, you can bet that the personnel department is already immersed in data analytics right now. It’s another sprint to the beginning of the NFL Free Agency Market. Let’s see who the LA Rams are working with, shall we?

For the right price

While there is a lot more to analyze when it comes to the future of projected unrestricted free agents and whether or not the LA Rams will attempt to extend them, there is a more concise decision point when it comes to both ERFAs and RFAs. In short, the decision rests on whether or not the LA Rams will want them back. After all, if the team fears losing any of the players in either of these two categories, the team has options available to remedy the situation.

But to exercise any option, it will take salary cap funds. And so, it becomes a bit of an NFL game show of The Price Is Right. So it becomes not just whether the LA Rams wish to bring back the player, but is the team comfortable doing so at the standard price? Or will the Rams set a price, allow the player to test their market, and then re-sign that player to a team-friendly deal?

Who are the LA Rams Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs)?

The LA Rams currently have two players who will be ERFAs:

Position                   Name            
Quarterback            John Wolford
Inside linebacker    Travin Howard

Who are the LA Rams 2022 Restricted Free Agents (RFAs)?

Position                   Name
Offensive center    Coleman Shelton
Placekicker              Matt Gay
Inside linebacker    Troy Reeder

Who needs to come back? Who can the LA Rams allow to truly their luck elsewhere? That’s what we are here to find out. And yes, the fact is that the Rams will have some tough decisions to make in this NFL Free Agency market.  Like who, for example?  We need to look no further than placekicker Matt Gay to find the first LA Rams challenge. How can the LA Rams sign one of the best placekickers in the NFL to a team-friendly deal?

To gauge what the costs are for RFAs, here is the link to Over The Cap’s latest estimation for 2022 Tenders. For ERFAs, here is the link to Spotrac’s NFL Minimum Salaries for 2022.

Just for kicks

Background – Placekicker Matt Gay (RFA) signed on with the LA Rams midway through the 2020 NFL season, in almost a desperation move after the team had already cycled through four kickers. He immediately brought consistent kicking, dependability that had been sorely lacking.  He’s been the lone shining star in special teams. He’s so good, that it’s almost shocking if he misses, which he seldom does.

Strengths – In any placekicker, you look for three things: accuracy, power, and the ability to kickoff and force opponents to start behind their own 25-yard line. While he hasn’t quite mastered that third objective, he has most certainly been a sure-footed placekicker for the Rams from the second half of 2020 through all of 2021.

Weaknesses – Placekickers are streaky, and it was that streakiness factor in 2019 that cost him his job with the-then Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  In the last two games of the season, he simply went cold, kicking just two of his final six field goals of the season. In the season finale, he missed all three kicks.  While that has not happened with the LA Rams yet, it’s out there.

Team Impact – He has scored 202 points for the LA Rams in 1.5 seasons, and he has shown no signs of slowing down or letting up. He’s been the margin of victory in four games this season. The Rams should not, and will not, let him walk away.

Estimated market value – if the LA Rams decline the opportunity to extend him, he could sign a $7-9 million deal for three years with the right team

Projected team action – The Rams hold the right to submit a Qualifying Tender offer, but I’d expect the team to take a more strategic approach. Look for the team to dangle a three-year $7.5 million contract. That should be enough to get a contract signed.

Most likely team to sign him – LA Rams. If the team is foolish enough to haggle for a cheap price too aggressively, I could see either the Cleveland Browns or the Green Bay Packers in the hunt to give their field goal kicking a substantial upgrade.

Backup QB

Background – Quarterback John Wolford (ERFA) has been entrusted to be the team’s backup quarterback for two seasons and to run the scouting team in the process. For head coach Sean McVay, Wolford has been outstanding at it. So why fix it if it isn’t broken? The LA Rams have been incredibly fortunate to have durable starting quarterbacks throughout HC Sean McVay’s tenure, so the backup quarterback is more administrating the scouting team, than producing on game day.

Strengths – He is a mobile quarterback who has created concerns over his durability. But he is fearless under center. Because he is such a different style of play than the starter, he gets an immediate advantage because pass rushes fail to think about containing him when he takes off running. So, he takes off running and is wise about when he chooses to do so. Unfortunately, he has not mastered the slide of surrender and gets banged up pretty severely when he is tackled.

Weaknesses – at 6-foot-1 and 200-pounds, he needs to move the pocket in order to create passing lanes. That necessity to create a dynamic pocket eliminates some passing routes and places a lot of pressure on the offensive line. He’s not accurate completing just 54.8 percent of his career passes for 236 yards, no TDs, and two interceptions. He is vulnerable to injury as well. Not only was he injured early in just his second game, but he was injured early in this year as well. But perhaps most of all, his style of play simply does not align with the same skillsets of starting quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Team Impact – He has a record of 1-0 as an NFL starter. Unfortunately, that win was as much a result of the defense. He has a strong enough arm and can move the chains by scrambling for a first down. If the LA Rams need him to start more than one game, they will need to go heavy on running the football and picking their spots to pass.

Estimated market value -If the LA Rams decline the opportunity to extend him, he could sign a minimal $1-2 million one-year contract on a prove-it basis.

Projected team action – Rams will offer the minimal NFL salary required to extend him another year. That will cost the team less than $1 million to extend him for one more season.

Most likely team to sign him – LA Rams. If they opt not to bring him back, look for him to garner interest among teams with a mobile quarterback. The Arizona Cardinals may be interested, as much for his knowledge of the Rams offense as for what he can do in their offense.

TE Mundt

Background – Tight end Johnny Mundt (RFA) was never valued as much by the LA Rams organization as he was when he was injured. He’s been with the LA Rams since 2017 but has only really been used by the team since 2019.

Strengths – Johnny Mundt excels at the NFL stuff which simply does not show up on statistics. He is the NFL version of TV actor Mike Rowe, star of Dirty Jobs. Mundt lines up practically anywhere and everywhere on offense, almost exclusive to put a big block on somebody. He is a big body at 6-foot-3 and 233 pounds.

Weaknesses – He is simply not a receiving threat for the Rams. In 43 games played over the past five seasons, he has been targeted 13 times and has caught 10 passes for 93 yards. As long as that continues to be the case, he will be limited to specialized packages on offense and special teams’ play.

Team Impact – Mundt continues to deliver in those areas that fans are not likely to easily notice, particularly fantasy football team owners. But whether it’s on special teams, chip blocking pass rushers, or run blocking, Mundt is a solid player who is not easily replaced on the Rams roster. In fact, when the Rams needed to do so in 2021, they simply were unable to do so.

Estimated market value – Special teams players who perform very well can attract NFL contracts in the $2-4 million per year range. Since Mundt is a bit specialized, his market value will definitely have a ceiling.

Projected team action – Rams will find the funds to extend Mundt. In a worst-case scenario, the team will give Mundt a Right-of-First-Refusal Qualifying Tender offer of one year at a cost of $2.433 million.  I would not be surprised if the LA Rams go the $3 million two-year contract route instead.

Most likely team to sign him – LA Rams. If the team passes on him, then a run-heavy offense like the Baltimore Ravens would certainly be intrigued to add another tight end.

Center of attention

Background – Offensive center Coleman Shelton (RFA) was a 2019 mid-season signing off the Arizona Cardinals practice squad to add depth to the offensive line in the midst of injuries. He has been primarily a backup offensive lineman until 2021. With several injuries to starter Brian Allen, Coleman Shelton stepped right in and let the LA Rams to a 3-0 record before the team reinserted Allen into the starting lineup.

Strengths – 6-foot-4 299-pound Coleman Shelton is an athletic interior offensive lineman. He is quick enough to pass protect in the fast action of the interior of the offensive line but powerful enough to get out to secondary assignments on inside runs. While the Rams have several options to extend offensive linemen, Shelton is the obvious choice. Shelton is healthier than Allen, and a more natural fit at the center role than Corbett.

Weaknesses – Of all of the LA Rams offensive line, Shelton has had to fight to get playing time. And yet, when he gets the chance, he delivers. The trouble is that the coaching staff has truly not been very objective in giving those types of opportunities. Shelton is not All-Pro or anything, but he is more than ‘serviceable’, and the Rams need an experienced center for 2022.

Team Impact – He played in the games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Minnesota Vikings. Not only did the Rams win all three games, despite being short-handed, but the team rushed for 331 yards and two touchdowns in those games. He is a leader in the middle of the offensive line, makes immediate decisions, and can deliver both at pass blocking and run blocking.

Estimated market value – Even a backup center can command $4 million on a three-year contract.

Projected team action – The LA Rams will likely try to lock Shelton up on a multi-year deal. If that proves fruitless, look for the team to lock him up with a Right-of-First-Refusal Qualifying Tender offer of $2.433 million on a one-year deal. Even if the Rams intend to draft a center, locking up Shelton is the best option.

Most likely team to sign him – The LA Rams would not be foolish enough to let him walk, would they? If they do, look for the Detroit Lions or the LA Chargers to swoop in and make a very competitive offer

I got no place else to go

Background – Inside linebacker Travin Howard (ERFA) entered the 2021 NFL season buried at a very deep position on the LA Rams depth chart. Ahead of him? Micah Kiser, Kenny Young, Troy Reeder, and even rookie Ernest Jones. Coming back from a 2020 injury, Howard was looking at very little opportunity to play. But the Denver Broncos claimed Kiser off the practice squad, then traded for Kenny Young. Ernest Jones was injured. Like 2020, the Rams are down to two healthy inside linebackers.

Strengths – Standing 6-foot-1 and weighing 219-pounds, Howard seems to fit that hybrid S/LB role that many defenses are converting to. While he has only played in two games, he seems to have a better understanding of where he needs to be in the defense. In 101 defensive snaps, he’s already accounted for 21 tackles and a key interception. He’s even deflected three passes.

Weaknesses – Howard is not a big rugged smack ’em if they test the middle of the defense sort of linebacker. He’s more of a defensive back playing at the linebacker position for right now. If the Rams are confronted with pass-centric offenses, that will work out. If not? Well, teams will run wild on the defense.

Team Impact – Howard is a solid backup. He contributes on special teams and has the ability to give the defense a different look in down and distance scenarios that result in obvious passing downs.

Estimated market value – The market for a backup inside linebacker runs in the $1-2 million range per year and seldom gets contracts longer than two years.

Projected team action – The LA Rams should be content to extend Howard for an NFL Minimum salary.

Most likely team to sign him – The LA Rams will extend him. He offers too much versatility and value to the team for them to allow him to walk. If he does move on, look for the LA Chargers, Green Bay Packers, or Detroit Lions to extend a modest contract to sign him.