LA Rams 6+ Plan B options as team must now ‘move on from Von’

Go figure. The saga of the will-he-or-won’t-be Von Miller is over, and the result is a disappointing outcome. The fact is that Miller arrived on the LA Rams roster as a mercenary, a player who admittedly was ‘just doing his job’ for the Rams. It played out almost perfectly, as he arrived, got up to speed, helped the team to close out the season on a 5-1 run, and then flip over into the postseason with a 4-0 run that included a Super Bowl LVI win at SoFi Stadium.

The Rams had to know that if they did not succeed at winning a Super Bowl, their 2022 second and third-round picks invested to acquire Miller would appear to be significant overpay for the veteran outside linebacker. But the front office knew that an even greater peril lie waiting for the team if they did succeed at winning the NFL Championship.

Like so many other outside linebackers, Von Miller’s before and after statistics proved once more that the LA Rams have an almost supernatural ability (a.k.a. the Aaron-Donald effect) to rejuvenate the production of an outside linebacker from meh to OMG!-Would-you-check-this-out.

And therein lies the corner that the Rans painted themselves into. By trading for Von Miller, a player who was content to fade away into the sunset in Denver Colorado, the Rams reminded the entire NFL just how good Miller could play. They also reminded him what he is worth, a fact that Buffalo Bills were more than happy to punctuate with an exclamation point.

The Bills are signing Miller to a six-year deal worth $120 million, or an average of $20 million per year.

That is about twice what his market value was expected to be, and a solid 133% of what the LA Rams were looking to offer him.

But we’ve been down this road before. Other teams pay outlandish prices for defensive players who are exiting the LA Rams defense based upon what that player did for the Rams, not what they will do in their defense. But one more lesson to learn for one more team. I love what Von Miller helped the Rams to achieve, but I am nowhere near confident that he can replicate that same level of production for the Buffalo Bills.

Plan B

Okay, so now what can the LA Rams do? Well, the last thing the Rams should do is pack up their toys and go home. Trading for a player on an expiring contract more often ends this way than not. So now the Rams, who were willing to spend as much as $16 million per year for the guy, have to find ways to replace that type of production in the no-more-than $16 million per year range.

While many will immediately jump to a conclusion of just loading up on edge players, that will not get the job done. The Rams will start OLB Leonard Floyd in 2022. So the best the Rams can do is to sign one veteran outside linebacker who can generate 10+ quarterback sacks in 2022 in the Rams defense. For many free-agent veterans, that is not going to be difficult.

But the trick is to pivot from this disappointing pursuit of one free agent outside linebacker and sign up a combination of defensive players who can get the job done. The LA Rams were wise not to follow the Buffalo Bills into borderline insanity of a six-year $120 million deal. That contract will carry Von Miller to 38 years of age. If not for the opportunity to play with the Rams in 2021, his production had been on the decline.  In fact, he missed all of 2020 due to an injury.

Now, that may sound like sour grapes, and in a way, it is. But the foundation of the thought process is this: The LA Rams added a promising but no delivery Dante Fowler Jr., who had a monster year with the LA Rams and got paid. The LA Rams added a promising and fundamentally sound Leonard Floyd who had a monster year and got extended. The LA Rams added a former All-Pro outside linebacker on the decline who had a monster year and got paid.

It’s a wash-rinse-repeat process. So who should the LA Rams sign now?

Option I:

Since the likelihood of signing Von Miller seemed to be stuck on or about 50 percent, I’d made not of outside linebackers who could come in and make an immediate impact on this LA Rams defense. One such under-the-radar player is outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy, who was recently released by the New England Patriots.

The encouraging point about Van Noy is that if the LA Rams do commit to signing him, he will not count against any calculations toward awarded compensatory picks in 2023.  He has been a dependable and solid defender, capable of setting the edge, rushing the passer, stuffing the run, or defending the pass. He is currently 30 years old and has a lot of games left in him. Since the Rams have Leonard Floyd, Justin Hollins, Terrell Lewis, and Chris Garrett on the roster, they can get by with a strong dependable veteran like Van Noy.

Option II:

The Kansas City Chiefs swear that a late-season trade for outside linebacker Melvin Ingram changed the entire energy level for that defense. The addition of Ingram allowed the Chiefs to reconfigure their entire defensive front, restoring Chris Jones to defensive tackle vs. defensive end. That allowed Jones to be more effective, which translated into Frank Clark being more effective. That is the snow-ball effect of getting the right player into the right position.

It elevates the play of everyone.

That same domino effect could occur in the Rams give Ingram a chance with the Rams. He signed on with the Pittsburgh Steelers on a one-year $4 million deal that is likely his ceiling for the 2022 NFL season. If the guy shows up and outplays his contract, the Rams will benefit both on the field and in next year’s free agency market. So, why not?

Former Rams players

Option III:

I am of the opinion that if you plop outside linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. into this LA Rams defense, he will recover his swagger. In 2019, he put up 58 tackles, 11.5 quarterback sacks, and six passes defended. He also allowed only four of nine passes thrown to the player he was covering to find their mark.  He knows the LA Rams and the Rams know him. Best of all, he was released by the Falcons, so he will not offset any potential awarded compensatory draft picks in 2023.

After being released by the Falcons, his marker price has surely fallen substantially from the $6 million in base salary earned in 2021. The only hiccup is that he played for Atlanta Falcons DC Raheem Morris, who was not very pleased with Fowler’s performance. But that was on his original salary where he was earning an APY of $15 million. The Rams will likely try to low-ball a one-year $4.5-5.25 million contract for him, and that should do it.

Option IV:

While defensive end Morgan Fox does not play the same position as that of Von Miller, the net effect of getting to the quarterback and stuffing the run are the same basic principles. Similar to the experience of Fowler, Fox was an NFL-star in the making when he left the LA Rams. But like so many other young and promising players, he ran into a buzzsaw when he faced creating plays on his own, without the benefit of playing next to Aaron Donald.

So what would happen if the LA Rams bring him back on a one-year deal incentivized up to $3.5 million if certain performance thresholds were met? And Fox, like Fowler and Van Noy, was released by his former which means no offset to any future awarded compensatory draft picks. Fox added six quarterback sacks and 27 tackles in 2020 on just 403 defensive snaps. He may not be THE answer, but he could be part of a comprehensive solution for the team.

Former Seahawks players

Option V:

Perhaps there are more ways to bolster the LA Rams defense to return to an NFL Championship caliber. And almost every path I envision without Von Miller seems to include the addition of ILB Bobby Wagner. Recently cut by the Seattle Seahawks, the veteran signed a three-year deal for $54 million just in 2019. Now, at 31, the veteran is still a formidable force capable of locking down the heart of any NFL defense.

Like Von Miller, he adds to the team locker room and to the psyche on the football field. While Von Miller was always smiling and laid back, Wagner is a blazing inferno of intensity. He plays like it is a coveted privilege to do so, and gives his all on almost every play.  One of the reasons I lobby for the Rams to add Wagner is that he is the nemesis of the San Franciso 49ers. He stuffs runs and defends passes, frustrating what their offensive loves to do most.

Option VI:

While the sense I have about FA OLB Jadaveon Clowney is that he is more mercenary seeking bigger stacks of Benjamins, some remain convinced that he could be a significant defensive force on the LA Rams defense. Perhaps he could? He certainly seems to fall into the price range of the LA Rams, who could sign him for a 1-2 year deal with an average cost at or below $9 million per year. That would offset one of the estimated two fifth-round picks to be awarded as compensatory picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Clowney could be a major success in the LA Rams defense. Before he even arrives, he often parks his quarterback sack mark at or around nine sacks per season. And he has a lightning-fast twitch that allows him to penetrate into the backfield very quickly. He is so fast, that it would be fun to witness whether he or Aaron Donald gets to the quarterback first?

But does he achieve those statistics as a selfless member of a defense? Or is he eager to get his stats, and let some other poor schmucks get blasted with double or triple teams? I do not really have a feel for this guy, except to see that he has played eight NFL seasons. After playing five years for the Houston Texans, he is content to play one year for an NFL team, and then move on.

Honorable mentions

Arden Key – One such player who is worth considering as an honorable mention is FA defensive end Arden Key, who just had a very respectable season for the San Francisco 49ers. While he is a defensive end and not an outside linebacker, he stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 240-pounds, delivered  22 tackles, 6.5 quarterback sacks type of season for the 49ers on just 374 defensive snaps.

Key is coming off his fourth NFL season and would love to receive a significant pay increase. Even if the LA Rams do not dangle one to sign Key, the team can point to their track record of free agency signings after a year with the Rams. A one-year deal worth $3-5 million could get the Rams a promising young NFL player who could turn into something much more than a role player

Anthony Barr – Another player who could warrant a look-see is an eight-year veteran and four-time Pro Bowler ex-Vikings Anthony Barr. While he plays at the outside linebacker on a 4-3 defense, he has all of the making of a solid edge player in the LA Rams 3-4 defensive front.  He covers the flat, he can set the edge, he certainly can stuff the run. The only trait that he is not proficient at is rushing the passer.

But he does blitz, sometimes as often as averaging nearly eight pass rushes per game. So I wouldn’t eliminate him from the discussion based on that alone. He is very durable, averaging over 850 defensive snaps per season over the course of seven NFL seasons.

While many had focused on the LA Rams offseason with the binary grade of sign Von Miller = success and lose Von Miller to another team = failure, it’s not that simple. In fact, based on the asking price of $20 million per year over six years (still in disbelief over that whopper of a contract), the LA Rams could very likely end up better off by vetting and signing alternative options.

Don’t stop believing. The LA Rams did not have Von Miller to start the 2021 NFL season, and look what happened?  If I know one thing about the LA Rams front office, they never stop trying to improve the team.