LA Rams past draft whiffs now present roster woes

I don’t know any NFL fans who cannot link the LA Rams general manager Les Snead to the paradoxical emoji “F*** Them Picks!” that has become quite the popular phrase now employed by multiple NFL teams. The logic behind such a devaluing manner of treating a limited supply of draft picks is as simple as the logic behind bypassing the garden store for high-quality seeds and going directly to the grocery market to buy the best fresh produce.

Sometimes you need help now, and you cannot wait for the right mixture of time, sunshine, rainfall, and in some cases, the random nature of genetics, to provide it. The Rams have simply found a cheat code to find the best NFL talent at the time, and it involves trading uncertain draft picks for certain high-production players.

Nearly a year ago, we asked the theoretical question that is very real right now: What happens when other NFL teams mimic the LA Rams’ “F*** them picks” strategy? Now we know the answer.

Disaster.

The strategy itself was effective and quite innovative. That is until the Rams found that competition began to multiply from other NFL teams.

Rams falling thanks to past draft failures

So where are we? Well, the LA Rams are plummeting this season, having fallen to a record of 3-6, now dead last in the NFC West Division, in a three-game losing streak, and no reason to expect anything close to a late season rally. No, the sky is not falling. And no, the LA Rams should not start handing out pink slips to start over.

While the culprit this season is a rash of injuries that have hit the team hard on the offensive line, running back, and defensive back positions, with little to no depth worthy of stepping up to hold the course until starters could rehab, rest, recover, and return.

But what appears to be an injury situation on the surface is perhaps a deeper problem. Something happened to the team’s ability to draft quality depth and potential NFL starters after 2019, and the impact is showing up now. What do I mean? That 2019 NFL Draft class includes DB Taylor Rapp, RB Darrell Henderson, DB David Long Jr., OL Bobby Evans, DT Greg Gaines, OL David Edwards, DB Nick Scott, and LB Dakota Allen.

Of that group, all but Allen remain on the Rams roster, many in a starting or significant rotational role, and all have contributed this season. Allen, if you recall, was signed by the Oakland Raiders in 2019 as the Rams pared the roster to fit the 53-player maximum. So what of the subsequent draft classes?  Let’s take a look.

2020 NFL Draft

The LA Rams entered the 2020 NFL Draft with a need for help at RB, WR, Edge rusher, DB, LB, K, and OL. That is pretty ambitious shopping. It became even loftier in the goal when considering that the Rams held no first-round picks.

The LA Rams needed to hit the mark with their 2020 draft class, and it appeared that the rookies that year would be solid contributors for years to come. The Rams were able to draft nine players that year, including:

• RB Cam Akers (52) WR Van Jefferson (57) OLB Terrell Lewis (84, no longer with the team) DB Terrell Burgess (104, no longer with the team) TE Brycen Hopkins (136) DB Jordan Fuller (199) LB Clay Johnston (234, no longer with the team) K Sam Sloman (248, no longer with the team) OL Tremayne Anchrum (250)

The LA Rams 2020 NFL Draft was the first draft following the Rams not making the NFL playoffs, and in the eyes of many fans, the 2020 Draft class needed to load up on offensive linemen. That most certainly did not happen, but the Rams did get some immediate returns from the draft class in 2020.

Of the group, the Rams benefited from significant contributions from RB Cam Akers, WR Van Jefferson, and DB Jordan Fuller. The team also held high hopes for all other sans K Sam Sloman  (released that year) and LB Clay Johnston (signed with Carolina Panthers practice squad).

Rams draft class losing snaps since 2020

But the Rams lost defensive coordinator Brandon Staley at the end of the 2020 NFL season. As a result, defensive players who fit the LA Rams’ defense in 2020 were no longer a fit in the Rams’ 2021 defensive scheme.

DB Terrell Burgess was a defensive back who the Rams initially hoped to be a versatile defensive back for the Rams and their positionless secondary. While he seemed to be an ideal fit for Brandon Staley, he not only lost the competition with DB Taylor Rapp to start opposite DB Jordan Fuller, his role diminished even further in 2022 to the point where the LA Rams outright released him, still on his rookie contract.

But he is not the only player who slid in the Rams’ defensive depth chart.

2021 starting safety Jordan Fuller had to compete with teammate Taylor Rapp to start opposite DB Nick Scott.  He too lost his spot to Rapp, fell to injury, and has not played since Week 4. At one point, both Fuller and Burgess appeared to be capable of starting for the Rams.

LA Rams 2020 Draft class has lost its luster

Tight end Brycen Hopkins continues to be an enigma. Even as the backup tight end this season, he has played just 60 offensive snaps, and been targeted just three times this season. In his three years in the NFL, Hopkins has been thrown to just four times in the regular season, and four times in the postseason.

Another player from the 2020 Rams draft class who seems to have diminishing roles include RB Cam Akers. Of course, that could simply be due to the Rams’ reluctance to rush. But he has not been getting more carries this season. That can also be said of OLB Terrell Lewis, whose on-field production has not lived up to nearly the expectation for his third NFL season.  Even WR Van Jefferson, due to a prolonged injury, appears to have regressed this year.

Since the 2020 season ended, the LA Rams 2020 Draft class lost its luster.  From a class of nine rookies, the class appeared to have up to seven starters/significant role players among the group. But since that season, the reality that no players from the group will be extended beyond their rookie contract is a very real possibility. That’s particularly disappointing when combined with the results of the Rams draft class of 2021.

2021 NFL Draft

The LA Rams seemed to be in good shape heading into the 2021 NFL Draft, and as such, the focus was on high-ceiling athletes who had plenty of high reward and special team potential at the expense of plug-n-play experience.

• WR Tutu Atwell (57) ILB Ernest Jones (103) DL Bobby Brown (117) DB Robert Rochell (130) TE/WR Jacob Harris (141) DE Ernest Brown IV (174) RB Jake Funk (233, no longer with the team) WR Ben Skowronek (249) DE/OLB Chris Garrett (252, no longer with the team)

The Rams entered the 2021 NFL Draft with a list of distinguishable needs.  Those needs included the offensive line, linebacker, edge rusher, and depth. The Rams did draft a linebacker but waited for their last pick to address the edge rusher, and never did address the offensive line.

If there is a cause-and-effect relationship to a link between the struggles this season and past draft miscues, the 2021 NFL Draft class is the most logical cause.

Of the rookies chosen in the 2021 NFL Draft, only ILB Ernest Brown and WR Ben Skowronek have shown that they can contribute in a significant role for the team. The fact that the Rams loaded up on three wide receivers in 2021, while already boasting a significant number of talented receivers on the roster, was myopic at best.

Perhaps practical is the way to draft?

There is no shame in drafting talented offensive linemen, but the Rams appear to think so. In a season with three offensive linemen on expiring contracts, few would have questioned the Rams choosing to add competition and depth to their offensive line group that faced three expiring contracts. In retrospect, one of the Rams’ best rookie additions to the roster that year, OL Alaric Jackson, signed with the Rams after the 2021 NFL Draft.

Of that group, here are the snap counts for each player still on the team after 11 games in the 2022 NFL season:

WR Tutu Atwell (30)
ILB Ernest Jones (440)
DL Bobby Brown (15)
DB Robert Rochell (18)
TE/WR Jacob Harris (1)
DE Ernest Brown (0)
WR Ben Skowronek (506)

Call me too practical, but with a snap count breakdown like this, I cannot help but think that the Rams’ front office whiffed pretty badly in trying to hit the mark. While some are to be expected, just two years later, only two of nine prospects appear to fill a contributing role for this team.

If the LA Rams had drafted according to the team needs, the Rams would have up to two offensive linemen, and a solid edge rusher to add to ILB Ernest Jones as key contributors to the team this season, rather than the head-scratching enigma that seems to stump the team over how to get Tutu Atwell and Jacob Harris involved in an offense that is among the worst in the NFL right now.

The Rams added multiple skill players to a roster that needed help in the trenches. The result? Those garnish players remain unused, with the front office scrambling each week to sign more offensive linemen. There is a better way.

2022 NFL Draft

The LA Rams approached the 2022 NFL Draft with an eye on restocking positions that had become thin due to the NFL Free Agency market. But this was never going to be a draft class that led to immediate starters. The reason was not simply that the Rams had to draft outside of the Top 100, but that the Rams drafted for need.

That steered the Rams toward offensive linemen, defensive backs, inside linebackers, and edge rushers. The Rams were able to fill the need in the middle by signing free-agent veteran ILB Bobby Wagner. But even as the Rams chose defensive backs and offensive linemen in the draft, their lack of experience coupled with a need to coach them up hampered their ability to contribute right away.

• OL Logan Bruss (104) DB Cobie Durant (142) RB Kyren Williams (164) DB Quentin Lake (211) DB Derion Kendrick (212) OLB Daniel Hardy (235) DB Russ Yeast (253) OT A.J. Arcuri (261)

While it’s too early to grade the Rams 2022 draft class just yet, we can track the early trends. The rookie DBs seem to be getting plenty of work already, a trend that should continue well into next season. But how has that impacted the defense’s performance?

Rookie DBs play without consistency

Young defensive backs play with inconsistency. And that is exactly what we find with the Rams’ secondary this season. But that story gets lost in the evaluation of the team this season, particularly when talking about the Rams’ secondary. How bad is it? Let’s check out how many snaps the Rams draft class of 2022 has played so far this season:

• OL Logan Bruss (0 snaps, IR) DB Cobie Durant (23 snaps) RB Kyren Williams (51 snaps) DB Quentin Lake (injured, 0 snaps) DB Derion Kendrick (360 snaps) OLB Daniel Hardy (IR, 0 snaps) DB Russ Yeast (16 snaps) OT A.J. Arcuri (PS, 0 snaps)

That’s just 10 games into the season folks. It’s clear that the Rams will be leaning on this year’s crop of defensive backs going forward. Will they continue to develop and show promise? Well, let’s hope so.

The Rams project to lose seven defensive backs due to expired contracts in 2023, including Taylor Rapp, Nick Scott, Troy Hill, and David Long Jr. With the work that Derion Kendrick, Cobie Durant, and Russ Yeast are getting already, the Rams may only need to look for secondary depth in the 2023 NFL Draft.

2023 NFL Draft and beyond

What can the LA Rams expect in the 2023 NFL Draft? Well, the Rams actually have a solid projection of up to 10 draft picks after compensatory picks are awarded. But even with 10 picks, the Rams will need to do a much better job of identifying roster needs and setting up their draft board accordingly.

The final estimated tally for the 2023 NFL Draft is as follows:

• First round – 0 (none)
• Second round – 1 (one), pick 37
• Third round – 1 (one), pick 68
• Fourth-round – 0 (zero)
• Fifth-round – 2 (two), picks 170, 173
• Sixth-round – 4 (four), picks 183, 186, 201, 211
• Seventh-round – 2 (two), pick 224, 254
• Total 2023 NFL Draft picks– 10 (Ten)

But what of the team’s needs? With all offensive linemen returning healthy in 2023 except left guard David Edwards, should the team prioritize offensive linemen in the upcoming draft? What of the need to get better at running the football? To add depth to the quarterback room? To add a blocking tight end? What about the defense and the performance that tries to cap explosive plays, but the questionable performance from the safety position in recent games?

Any prospects drafted in 2023 must be coached up in order to make positive contributions. and while the LA Rams hold two picks in the Top 100, doesn’t the 2023 NFL Draft already feel different for this team?

This is all new for the Rams, and perhaps some Rams fans

After all, the LA Rams have never drafted after a season with a losing record. And from the looks of things, the team has never struggled so much since hiring Sean McVay as the team’s head coach to integrate rookie draft classes into the team.

Do the LA Rams miss the eye for roster talent of former personnel executives Brad Holmes and Ray Agnew, who have since signed to run the Detroit Lions organization? It appears that in some regard, the team most definitely does.

This is no longer a team that hits on draft picks, it seems. This is no longer a team that can continue to add receivers, and simply hope that fundamental needs like the offensive line just take care of themselves. There are reports that the Rams have lacked cohesiveness this season, and that is quite true. But that lack of cohesiveness began as early as the 2021 NFL Draft, a draft where the team needed beef cattle and bison up front, but opted for greyhounds and cheetahs instead.

Perhaps most importantly, the LA Rams are no longer at the forefront of the latest successful innovations in the NFL. The power running game is now the headliner for offense, and swift defenses that can cover the entire football field are the talk of the town on the other side of the football.  The Rams are not dinosaurs. They are simply a team that has been decimated by injuries and have become rigid in their thinking as the NFL has changed all around them.

A good off-season can change everything for this team. But only if the powers-that-be pay attention.