How difficult will Rams find getting off to a fast start in the 2025 NFL season?

The Los Angeles Rams opened slowly in the past two seasons. In 2023, the Rams were 3-6 before winning seven of their last eight games to finish with a record of 10-7. In 2024, the team opened the season with a record of 1-4 before turning things around and winning nine of the final 12 games to finish the year at 10-7 once more.

While it's encouraging to get hot late in the season and hope that momentum carries over into the NFL Playoffs, there certainly is something to be said for not digging such an early hole, too. After all, if the team had opened the 2024 NFL season with a record of 3-2, the Rams would have finished 2024 with a record of 12-5.

And with the team opening the 2024 NFL schedule with:

• @ Detroit Lions
• @ Arizona Cardinals
• San Francisco 49ers
• @ Chicago Bears
• Green Bay Packers

The Rams would have entered the 2025 NFL Playoffs with a record of 12-5, and perhaps that would have changed the outcome of the postseason. It certainly would have given the team a stronger case for the 2025 NFL season. Of course, as in every mythical scenario that changes history, there would have been repercussions, too.

It was the Rams' presence at the 26th overall pick that prompted the Atlanta Falcons to surrender their 2026 NFL Draft Round 1 pick to move back into Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft. And right now, that extra Round 1 pick feels incredibly valuable.

But what led to the Rams' early-season struggles? Has this team fallen into a pattern of bad habits? Or is this merely the coincidence of two seasons of bad luck? Every season is different, for many reasons. Ultimately, the Rams have to deal with the challenges of a new season, but like a contractor must solve the unique challenges of single-home construction. But the Rams coaching staff is consistently one of the best in the league. So why haven't the coaches been able to solve this dilemma?

Let's examine the factors that derailed the Rams' early-season efforts in 2024 and consider whether the conditions may be present early in 2025 as well.

(5) - Rams legendary All-Pro DT Aaron Donald retired

The Los Angeles Rams' defense was in a state of flux throughout the first half of the 2024 NFL season. The greatest single factor that impacted the entire team was the anticipated but sudden retirement of All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Donald was one of the three veteran players the Rams kept in place after the soft reboot after a disappointing 2022 season

Donald was more than one player. He was a significant presence on the Rams defensive front. His ability to elevate the production of his teammates was so measurable that it became knows as the Aaron Donald effect. And as offensive linemen double teamed him, many former Rams pass rushers found an easier path to opposing quarterbacks, and to bigger paychecks.

But it was not just Donald's retirement.

(4) - Rams traded starting ILB Ernest Jones just as season arrived

I don't know if we will ever truly know why the Rams and starting inside linebacker Ernest Jones had an instantaneous and permanent falling out just before the 2024 NFL season got underway. But the impact of the defense losing top-tackler Jones was a setback that I'm not sure the defense ever truly recovered from.

The team tried to stitch together an undrafted tandem of inside linebackers in Troy Reeder and Christian Rozeboom, but neither was particularly effective at stuffing the run, making tackles, or playing with a level of physical intensity. After a Week 7 injury to Reeder forced him to IR, undrafted rookie Beaux Limmer was a step in the right direction. He was markedly better at playing the run, allowing Rozeboom to slide into his natural skillsets of mopping up and defending the pass.

Lost in all of the ILB shuffle is the fact that this was a team playing for a new defensive coordinator.

While DC Chris Shula was promoted to his new defensive coordinator role from his positional coaching role, he brought changes and a new philosophy to the defense as well. It took time for veterans, rookie starters, and rotations to feel comfortable in that scheme. As just one example, the Rams' pass rush could only muster three quarterback sacks in the first two games of the 2024 NFL season.

But the team was able to generate 16 quarterback sacks in the final two games, both games in the postseason. While it may have taken time for the defense to figure it all out, they ended the 2024 campaign on a very high note.

(3) - Rams secondary was in chaos

The success of the Rams' bargain basement secondary did not carry over from 2023 to 2024. The team lost projected free agent starting cornerback Darious Williams for the first four games of the season. The team has already lost returning CB Derion Kendrick for the season. And veteran CB Tre'Davious White was not ready to start after two consecutive seasons were ended by serious injuries.

That is on top of the fact that the Rams had a new starting safety configuration in Kamren Curl, John Johnson III, and Quentin Lake, and the secondary was pretty much struggling to find itself any form of bedrock. By Week 3, Johnson was injured, and the team promoted rookie safeties Jaylen McCollough and Kamren Kinchens to take over. By Week 4, the team finally brought back former starting CB Ahekello Witherspoon and began to play him over rookie CB Josh Wallace. By Week 5, Tre'Davious White was benched, and the team's secondary had new faces on the football field.

So how bad was it? Pretty bad, to be honest. In the first five games of the season, the Rams secondary allowed receivers to look like All-Pro candidates:

• Week 1 - Detroit Lions WR Jameson Winston - 5 of 9, 121 yards, 1 TD
• Week 2 - Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - 4 of 8, 130 yards, 2 TDs
• Week 3 - San Francisco 49ers WR Jauan Jennings - 11 of 12, 175 yards, 3 TDs
• Week 4 - Chicago Bears WR D'Andre Swift - 7 of 7, 72 yards, 0 TDs
• Week 5 - Green Bay Packers WR Tucker Kraft - 4 of 5, 88 yards, 2 TDs

That is certainly not the right way to open a season if the goal is to win games.

If you are looking for a happy ending, you've come to the right place. In two NFL Playoff games, the Rams' secondary allowed just 228 total passing yards, one touchdown, while getting an interception and allowing the team's pass rush to put up 16 quarterback sacks. In terms of quarterback rating, the Rams' secondary only trailed that of the Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles.

So yes, the team improved dramatically over the course of the season.

(2) - Numerous injuries to Rams offensive line

The Rams front office attempted to restock the offensive line, allowing starting center Coleman Shelton to sign elsewhere and pivoting to former Detroit Lions IOL Jonah Jackson. That necessitated former LG Steve Avila to cross-train to center. But training camp injuries all across the offensive line bled into preseason injuries.

By Week 1, both LT Alaric Jackson (two-game suspension) and RT Rob Havenstein were unable to suit up. During that first game of the season, starting left guard Steve Avila was injured, forcing rookie center Beaux Limmer into the game, and Jonah Jackson to move to left guard. Likewise, backup left tackle Joe Noteboom was injured, forcing the team to promote third-string offensive tackle A.J. Arcuri into a starting role.

By game's end, the Rams' starting offensive line consisted of:

• Left tackle - AJ Arcuri
• Left guard - Jonah Jackson
• Center - Beaux Limmer
• Right guard - Kevin Dotson
• Right tackle - Warren McClendon Jr.

Jonah Jackson would fall to injury, leading to the promotion of Logan Bruss. When Bruss failed, the team would release Bruss and promote undrafted rookie Justin Dedich to take over. By the time the team limped into a Week 6 BYE, 11 different offensive linemen had been called into action. That is 11 players in just five games, in a unit that depends heavily upon continuity. In the first five games of the season, the Rams' offensive line surrendered 16 quarterback sacks and had only broken the rushing attack free for 487 rushing yards.

The Rams would only allow 15 quarterback sacks in the final 11 games of the season. The Rams would gain 1,288 rushing yards in the final 11 games of the season. So it's rather noticeable that the Rams offensive line struggles to stay healthy early in the season played a huge part in the team's early losses.

But wait, there's more.

(1) - Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp missed Weeks 3 through 6

Even in the face of all of this early-season turmoil and adversity, the Los Angeles Rams might still have been able to pull out more victories if the team had both wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy enough to play. The Rams opened the 2024 NFL season without either starting offensive tackle, with a mess at defense, and on the road facing the Detroit Lions.

The Rams lost that game in overtime by the score of 26-20.

Had Rams WR Puka Nacua not fallen to injury in the first half, the Rams were well on track to steal a win on the road. Instead, the Rams lost Nacua for the next five games, which included the first game back after the Week 6 BYE. Sadly, Kupp would only play the next game, too, and would miss the next four games. He too would miss the game after the BYE.

The Rams would finish the 2024 NFL season with a record of 10-7. But when the Rams had both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp suited up, the team would play to a record of 8-3. That means that the team would struggle to a record of just 2-4 without the two playing at the same time.

Is this truly a cause-and-effect relationship? You could make that argument for any number of factors listed here. And your argument would be compelling and tough to prove wrong.

But this is not an exercise to find a scapegoat or to play the blame game. The objective here is to determine whether the Rams face a similar risk to a slow start of the 2025 NFL season. And having reviewed many of the contributing factors to 2024's slow start, I am confident that it was all just a streak of bad luck.

How do you feel? Are the Rams at risk to a slow start this season? Or are you feeling warm and fuzzy about the team's chances to find success early in the season? We will soon know the Rams schedule, which will give a lot more data to process either way.

As always, thanks for reading.

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