No, the LA Rams shouldn't panic and blow things up after losing to Eagles

After the LA Rams (5-6) loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football, there is a rather loud and reactionary component of the fanbase that is now calling for the team to blow up the roster and start over. While the result of the game was certainly less than expected, the outcome of the game has no greater bearing on either team than had the outcome been a score of 33-32, with the Eagles winning with a last-second field goal.

There are no style points awarded in the NFL.

But there are optics. There are emotions. And to the loyal fans of the Los Angeles Rams, those are every bit as real as the record. But should they be? In a modern era in which we are steeped in the brew of our own emotional making, should we dissolve to the tea of despair that many have allowed to brew after one game?

After a humbling and blowout loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, the LA Rams rebounded with a solid and feisty victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Ultimately, the win over the 49ers was recorded by increasing the win column by one, and the loss to the Cards was recorded by increasing the loss column by one.

If you are disappointed in the Rams latest game, so be it. You have a right to that disappointment. But let's not be ruled by our emotions or hormones. We can still be respectful. And by all means, we have the responsibility to ensure that we control our expectations. If you expected the Rams to show up and win by a huge margin against a very talented and dangerous Philadelphia Eagles team?

That's on you.

We have takeaways from the game that we can hold up to the light and study. We can safely expect that the NFC West is no longer just the Rams vs. the San Francisco 49ers. Like it or not, the Rams will face tougher challenges from the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals going forward. They are improving.

But so are the Rams.

V: Rams don't need to 'blow up,' anything

The entire premise of 'blowing up,' a team has it's foundings in engineering, architecture, and construction. The 'blowing up,' strategy is employed whenever a building has become so run down and dilapidated that the energy used to effectively make all necessary major repairs is more than the energy needed to demolish everything and start over with a brand new foundation.

So why don't the Rams need to blow up anything?

If you examine the Rams roster, what do you find? Well, you quickly discover that the LA Rams roster is one of the youngest rosters in the NFL. Only the Green Bay Packers roster is younger. The Packers managed to beat the Rams in age by a matter of just several months because the Rams have two quarterbacks whose ages are well over 30 years old. And the Rams have other starters over 30 years old as well.

• Matthew Stafford -Starting QB - 36 years old
• Jimmy Garoppolo - Backup QB - 33 years old
• Rob Havenstein - Starting RT - 32 years old
• Darious Williams - Starting DB - 31 years old
• Cooper Kupp - Starting WR - 31 years old
• Demarcus Robinson - Rotational WR - 30 years old

The Packers have only two players at or over 30 years of age.

To blow up the Rams roster, fans must be committed to waving farewell to these players. Are the fans willing to do so? Hey, it's easy to chant a popular phrase on social media. But doing so infers total agreement with what that incurs. If you want to blow up the Rams roster, you have to be willing to cut every player listed above with no return.

Like it or not, there is a great deal of experience and future NFL production in that group. But, that is what blowing up the team truly means

IV: The same fans simply haven't the patience to blow up the roster

The same fans who scream for the team to blow up the roster have no patience. And lo and behold, what is the one virtue that is the prerequisite of any NFL team that invokes a roster rebuild? You guessed it. Patience.

Take the example of rookie kicker Joshua Karty for example. Almost every rookie kicker struggles in their first season in the NFL. But the same fans who screamed for the team to draft a rookie kicker are now the same fans who are screaming for the Rams to cut Karty. Make it make sense.

• K Matt Gay - FGM 27 of 35 (77.1%) | Xpt 43 of 48 (89.6%)
• K Greg Zuerlein - FGM 23 of 32 (74.2%) | Xpt 26 of 26 (100%)
• K Joshua Karty - FGM 16 of 21 (76.2%) | Xpt 21of 23 (91.3%)
• 49ers K Jake Moody - FGM 21 of 25 (84%) | Xpt 60 of 61 (98.4%)
• 2024 Ravens K Justin Tucker - FGM 16 of 22 (72.7%) | Xpt 38 of 39 (92.9%)

If you check out the data table above, the Rams are getting a rookie's worth of production out of rookie field goal kicker Joshua Karty. So what happens if the Rams cut the guy? Well, some other team ends up with a field goal kicker with all the makings of a future Pro Bowl kicker. And the Rams are stuck in a closed loop of trialing, keeping, and cutting loop over and over again.

The Rams signed second-year kicker Matt Gay and rode his production through a Pro Bowl season. He was cut after his rookie season by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The problem is not Joshua Karty, it's the excessive expectations of fans who ignore the facts. And it was the struggles of kicking in the NFL that prompted the team to re-sign kicker Tanner Brown.

Take a look in the mirror. If you are someone who has called for the Rams to cut rookie kicker Joshua Karty, how do you expect to handle a team with rookies at quarterback, tight end, offensive tackle, cornerback, and a myriad of other positions that they will staff for the first time in their NFL careers?

And if you hadn't noticed, we have a secret to share with you.

III: Rams already blew up the roster

Since mid-season in 2022, the LA Rams front office has been rebuilding this roster on the fly. If you think that I am lying, consider this: In December 2022, the Rams cut RB Darrell Henderson Jr., TE Kendall Blanton, DB Terrell Burgess, OLBs Chris Garrett, Justin Hollins, and even Terrell Lewis. It was then that the team retrained defensive tackle Michael Hoecht as the team's outside linebacker, a role that he fills to this day.

Since then, the Rams have cut All-Pro inside linebacker Bobby Wagner, traded All-Pro defensive back Jalen Ramsey to the Miami Dolphins, The team also traded veteran wide receiver Allen Robinson to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Finally, All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired after the 2023 NFL season.

So, what is left to 'blow up'?

Sure, there are enclaves of underperformance on this team. But based on the experience of 2024, those underperformers seem to have one common element. They all seem to have an origination story as a veteran free agent signed by the team,.

That puts a huge damper on any plans to restock this roster from the 2025 NFL Free Agency market. When the Rams applied their algorithms to the 2024 NFL Free Agency market, the team signed:

• IOL Jonah Jackson
• TE Colby Parkinson
• DB Darious Williams
• DB Tre'Davious White
• DB Kamren Curl
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Of the group, only TE Colby Parkinson, DB Darious Wiliams, and DB Kamren Curl have a contribuiting role to the team right now. Tre'Davious White was traded before the 2024 NFL Trade Deadline. So the path of free agency signings is no better than hit-or-miss for the team right now.

But there is another path to an NFL Championship team.

II: Rama draft classes have been superb over the past two seasons

One of the more traditional methods of rebuilding an NFL team roster is that of the NFL Draft. Of course, there are challenges with any onramp to an NFL team, and the draft is no exception. The ability to determine the right fit of team for each rookie prospect is certainly challenging enough. But toss in the auction-like environment of the NFL Draft three-day event, and it all becomes pandemonium.

You may think that draft profiles, pre-draft analysis, the annual NFL Scouting Combine, and even the array of senior bowl events clarifies the task for NFL front offices. But as information becomes as common as quartz crystals, which elements are diamonds, and which are common quartz?

2023 NFL Draft class

The LA Rams did not have a Round 1 pick in 2023, but you can't tell them that. If you focus on who the team did draft in 2023 despite no pick in Round 1, you quickly find that the team emerged with multiple players who deserved a Round 1 grade in post-draft analysis.

The LA Rams emerged with:

• Round 2 - IOL Steve Avila
• Round 3 - OLB Byron Young
• Round 3 - NT Kobie Turner
• Round 4 - QB Stetson Bennett
• Round 5 - OLB Nick Hampton
• Round 5 - OT Warren McClendon Jr
• Round 5 - WR Puka Nacua
• Round 7 - P Ethan Evans
• Round 7 - DE Desjuan Johnson

Other players from the class have either fallen to injury or been release. Still, that's a robust haul of rookies who continue to contribute to the team one year later.

And if you consider that fact that both OLB Byron Young and NT Kobie Turner led all rookies in quarterback sacks in 2023, and that WR Puka Nacua broke all NFL rookie receiving records, you can be quite happy with the class of 2023.

2024 NFL Draft class

The rookie class of 2023 already has heated competition from the Rams rookie class of 2024. It appears that the team used lessons learned last season and applied everything to improve their strategy in 2024. The result? The front office may have found a way to ensure that the lightning bold from the 2023 NFL Draft struck the same spot again in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The 2024 NFL Draft class for the Rams roster included:

• Round 1 - OLB Jared Verse
• Round 2 - DE Braden Fiske
• Round 3 - RB Blake Corum
• Round 3 - DB Kamren Kinchens
• Round 5 - OLB Brennan Jackson
• Round 6 - DT Tyler Davis
• Round 6 - K Joshua Karty
• Round 6 - WR Jordan Whittington
• Round 6 - IOL Beaux Limmer
• Round 7 - OT K.T. Leveston

And yes, they are doing a fine job so far as well.

If you factor in the undrafted rookies over the past two seasons, the Rams roster has effectively replaced over half of the roster with players selected in the draft or signed after the drafts from the past two seasons.

If the plan to 'blow up,' the roster is to clear out the old, and make way with the new, that is exactly what the team has done since the midpoint of the 2022 NFL season. And again, let's be clear. Rookies at every position on the team need patience to gain experience and develop. If you haven't the patience to handle this team's 2024 season, you are most certainly not prepared to handle what you are asking for by blowing up the team.

I: Many challenges are about strategy than chess pieces

If you think the problem with the team falling to a record of 5-6 is solely on the shoulder of the players, you could be right. If you think that the team falling to a record of 5-6 is solely due to the defense, you could be right as well. Even if you believe the team's 5-6 record is due to the special teams unit, and rookie kicker Joshua Karty, you could be right as well.

But before you decide your verdict, let me highlight a few points that may have a bearing on the way you see this team:

The Rams are not getting their money's worth from the offense

The team decided to invest heavily into their offense for the 2024 NFL season. Don't believe me? Per Over the Cap.com, the Rams boast the most expensive offense in the NFL. In fact, the Rams are spending more than $22 million more than the second-most-expensive offense, the Kansas City Chiefs. How can the Rams' offense be so expensive? Let's take a look:

The Rams spent a ton of hard-earned currency on the offense during the free agency period. If you need a refresher:

• Jonah Jackson, G (from Detroit Lions) - (3 years, $51 million) The LA Rams shocked many fans, by agreeing to terms with former Detroit Lions free agent guard Jonah Jackson to a hefty contract worth three years and $51 million.
• Colby Parkinson, TE (from Seattle Seahawks) - (3 years, $22.5 million) I had the right position from the right team, but I failed to get the right player.
• Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (from Las Vegas Raiders) - (1 year, $4.5 million) The Rams wanted to add Jimmy Garoppolo in 2022. Now, two years later, they finally get their wish.
• Kevin Dotson, G (re-signed - 3 years, $48 million. A priority signed below FMV.
• Demarcus Robinson, wide receiver (1-year, up to $5 million)
• Alaric Jackson, offensive tackle (1-year, $4.89 Million) The team deliberated for some time over the choice of using a Second-Round or an Original-Round Qualifying Tender Offer to bring back left tackle Alaric Jackson.
• Ronnie Rivers, RB (re-signed 1-year $985K)
• Tyler Johnson, WR (re-signed 1-year $1.13 million)

The Rams added nearly $40 million to the salary cap in 2024 via free agency. Three of the top paid players are not even significant contributors to the team.

While money does not ensure production, I don't believe that calling for the top-paid NFL offense to land among the top ten productive offenses. Sure, the team has fought through injuries. But all teams have suffered injuries at some point in the season. But that hasn't happened in 2024. The Rams are the 20th-ranked offense after Week 12 in terms of yards gained, and the 20th-ranked offense in terms of points scored.

The Rams routinely play just one tight end (while carrying three on the roster). The Rams routinely play one running back (while carrying four on the roster). If you wonder where the excess might be, you could start your search there.

The Rams defense is not the worst in the league, but it should be

So what happens if we pivot and examine the spending habits of the team on the defensive side of the football? To no surprise, we quickly discover that this team is the cheapest defense in the NFL. The LA Rams are spending just $40.2 million on the defensive side of the football. That is nearly half of what the next cheapest NFL defense costs. The Carolina Panthers are paying their defense $70.6 million.

To make this more understandable, the Rams are trying to win a race with a 10-speed bicycle and a bus pass, while other teams have the last NASCAR stock vehicles. So how can the defense compete? They shouldn't be able to. And yet, after Week 12, the Rams' defense is ranked 26th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. Likewise, this defense is 26th in terms of points allowed.

Curiously, the same Panthers team that is outspending the Rams on the defensive side of the football are the worst defense in the NFL. And here is another fun fact to consider. The Carolina Panthers blew up their team and are rebuilding, again.

Special teams need improvement, but every aspect of the team does

The LA Rams have a very young special teams bunch of players. ST skill players joined the team in 2023 or 2024. It's that youth and inexperience that poses the greatest challenge for the team. While the Rams' special teams ranking runs the gamut from bad to good, depending on the category, I believe that the Rams' field goal accuracy has set the fans to call for the release of rookie kicker Joshua Karty, and the outright firing of ST Coordinator Chase Blackburn

But is that objectively fair?

The team did Blackburn no favors. In 2023, the team did nothing to restock special teams specialists, with the lone exception of drafting Wingate punter Ethan Evans. In 2024, the Rams drafted rookie kicker Joshua Karty, As we pointed out earlier, rookie kickers take time to harden into NFL-consistent kickers.

The Rams have not lost a game from an errant kick this season. But some fans, eager to name a scapegoat, have thrown Karty to the wolves multiple times. He is not the problem right now.

If you want to know what is the problem? Check out the next slide:

Rams do a horrible job of self-scouting

The LA Rams may be a young team, but the outcome of games has almost become a decision tree for the team. What do I mean? Programmers often rely on basic decision trees to ensure that their program delivers the expected outcomes. To do that, there is particular care to the basix program design that gives consumers and programmers the opportunity to reach a consensus. In simplest form, the tree assigns basic Yes/Maybe/No questions into a hierarchy. Based on the response, the programmer can then assign a value to the equation, or continue with additional questions.

Ultimately, the goal is to arrive at a value for every possible answer.

What do I mean? Here's a sample question: Are you 65? If yes, contact Social Security. If no, do nothing. Simple, eh? Here is how that looks when applied to the LA Rams.

If RB Kyren Williams loses a fumble, they lose

The Rams offense is not exactly burning through NFL defenses this season. And any mistakes that arise, either from penalties or turnovers, can derail offensive drives pretty handily. The proof is in the pudding. So far, RB Kyren Williams has fumbled the football five times in 2024, and lost three of those five fumbles. In every game that Kyren Williams lost a fumble, the Rams lost the game.

He coughed up the football in:

• Week 5 - @ Green Bay Packers | Final score Rams 19 Packers 24
• Week 10 - Miami Dolphins | Final score Dolphins 23 Rams 15
• Week 12 - Philadelphia Eagles | Final score Eagles 37 Rams 20

Either Williams has to improve his ball security, the coaches need to do a much better job of keeping Williams fresh throughout the game, or the team needs to bench Williams and go with rookie RB Blake Corum to send a message that fumbles are not okay.

When Rams use 12-personnel, they win

The next decision leads to a more positive outcome. When examining the trend of the Rams use of tight ends, it seems that it's a case of the more the merrier. Per Lineups.com, whenever the Rams use two tight ends at a rate of 15 percent of the offense snaps, they win. How does that work?

The Rams have used their 12 personnel package in the following amounts each week:

• Week 1- 0 percent | Loss
• Week 2- 0 percent | Loss
• Week 3 - 45 percent | Win
• Week 4- 8 percent | Loss
• Week 5- 5 percent | Loss
• Week 6 - BYE
• Week 7- 15 percent | Win
• Week 8- 45 percent | Win
• Week 9- 31 percent | WIn
• Week 10- 9 percent | Loss
• Week 11- 35 percent | Win
• Week 12- 0 percent | Loss

If you examine the above table, you can draw a one for one correspondence to the Rams offense deploying their 12 personnel package at least 15 percent of the time correlating to a victory. So why abandon two tight ends in Weeks 10 and 12? Could this team be 7-4 right now if the team had opted to do so?

Whether true or not, it does make me wonder why this team refuses to use two tight ends more often.

When Rams offensive line protects Matthew Stafford, they win

While not nearly as black and white as the 12-personnel decision, the Rams offense has one more trick up its sleeve. While every NFL quarterback loves the security of being protected in the pocket, LA Rams starting quarterback Matthew Stafford shows his appreciation. You see, the offensive line has not allowed a single quarterback sack in three games this season.

The LA Rams have won all three games. In fact, the Rams offense arguably had its best games when Stafford was not sacked.

Stafford was not sacked in Week 8. The Rams scored 30 points to defeat the Minnesota VIkings. He was not sacked the following week, and the Rams scored 26 points to defeat the Seattle Seahawks. He was not sacked in Week 11, and the Rams scored 28 points to defeat the New England Patriots.

Does it make sense for the coaching staff to elevate protecting Stafford? You bet it does. And with this data, you have to revisit why this team fails to use more 12-personnel, particularly when the team pits a backup offensive tackle against some of the most dangerous pass rushers in the NFL.

Does it make sense? No. So before you grab your crane and wrecking ball, ask this question: Do the Rams need to shed players and start from scratch? Or does this team simply need to do a better job of leverage the abundance of talent currently on the roster?

Thanks for reading.

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