NFL expert and hard evidence agree that Rams DC Chris Shula is playoff-worthy

Let's ratchet down the cosmic implications of another game by the LA Rams defense. After a Week 6 BYE week in the rearview mirror and an NFL Trade Deadline looming larger in the windshield, we have to be certain that this defense is either up to the task through the rest of the season or that some changes are planned to get them there. It's either one or the other after seven games and a 3-4 start to the 2024 NFL season.

We know the Rams may be active at the 2024 NFL Trade Deadline. While it's clear that the team will not be selling off any offensive stars, it is reportedly now open to trading unimpressive veteran DB Tre White. It makes sense, as the team had to rush White into a starting role before he was ready.

But we do need to frame the team's current predicament in the proper context.

To be clear, this is not a season that has somehow channeled adversity and misfortune to the Los Angeles Rams alone. The San Francisco 49ers are just 4-4, locked into a three-way tie for the lead in the NFC Western Division. The Aaron Rodgers-powered New York Jets have fallen to a record of 2-6. And yes, they lost to the lowly New England Patriots after trading for disgruntled Las Vegas Raiders WR Devante Adams. So if misery loves company is your sort of thing, you have company. In some ways, you are among some of the best company in terms of NFL teams and lofty 2024 NFL season projections.

There is one undefeated team in the NFL right now. The Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) will attempt to cling to their undefeated record as they host the feisty Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4). The only other undefeated team was the Minnesota Vikings (5-2), powered by the remarkable resurgence of veteran journeyman QB Sam Darnold. But the Vikings fell to the Detroit Lions and then to the LA Rams.

The NFC West Division is jam-packed with mediocrity. The 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Arizona Cardinals all share a 4-4 record. But the suddenly back-to-life Rams are just 1/2 game back with a record of 3-4. The Rams travel to take on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9.

So a win could do wonders for this team's playoff aspirations. With a surging defense and a suddenly back-from-the-dead offense, things are looking up. A win would put this team back to .500 with a 4-4 record, and would be the third victory over an NFC team that many NFL analysts agree have a bead on a berth in the 2025 NFL Playoffs.

Can this team win in Week 9? Perhaps. But that answer belongs to later in the week. And nobody knows the future. Of course, we can speculate, assess the likelihood, and take it from there. But success in the NFL depends almost entirely on getting better. Are the Rams doing that?

In all three phases of the game? Yes.

Rams 2024 is far different from 2023

While we can all point to the team's 3-6 start to the 2023 NFL season that exploded into a 7-1 playoff run last season, many factors are quite different this season. For openers, while the team invested in plenty of youth, the team was not as dependent upon rookies in all aspects of the game. And for the rookies who were selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, they were unexpectedly incredible in their first NFL season.

All the while, the backbone of the 2023 Rams roster was still veterans.

But it was the very success of that 2023 rookie draft class, particularly on the defensive side of the football, that raised the bar for the 2024 rookie draft class. And higher expectations for these rookies as they gain experience and navigate the twists and turns of an NFL season only leads to greater disappointment. Or less euphoria when they realize those lofty expectations.

It's not that the rookies who are competing are not playing well. It's that many rookies this season did not open the season by playing to expectations. And those expectations are on the fans, fueled by the record-setting performance of WR Puka Nacua, or the DROY-worthy seasons of both OLB Byron Young and NT Kobie Turner.

The opening act from rookies in 2023 made it awfully difficult to impress fans so far this year.

Still, first impressions are not always the best way to just NFL rookies. Just check out these data points from two of the team's rookies so far this season:

The Rams may have struggled to create a beachhead to open the season. But that is true of any group that has reformed with new and unfamiliar faces. As the season has developed, this team's defense has shown signs of turning the corner. Is it real? Or is this simply a spike from a team in a couple of games, only to get punked in Week 9?

So let's get out of the habit of basking in the glow of the latest victory, and take a discerning look at this defense. Are they getting better, or not?

Rams defense is getting better with every game

For openers, let's start investigating some tactics employed by the LA Rams. It's clear that unlike his predecessors, Rams new DC Chris Shula will and has used the blitz as an effective tool in his box to create pressure and limit the time quarterbacks have in the pocket. The good news is that the Rams use of blitzes have been very effective indeed:

While the team's pass rush is still underwhelming in terms of recording quarterback sacks, the team is certainly putting up some impressive performances in other noteworthy statistical categories. But perhaps most of all, this young group may have needed time to get here, but they are starting to purr like a high-performance engine:

Of course, we urge caution when trying to read too much into NFL games. The success of the Rams defense of late coincides with the struggles of opposing offenses. Are they good? Are they statistically bad? Are they injured?

NFL Analysts are taking note

The front office invested heavily in forming a complementary and young defensive line to compete today and well into the future. While they are still getting there, the stars of the group like Jared Verse and Byron Young are starting to make some noise. Not only at putting pressure on quarterbacks. Now, finally, the group if starting to find their range and record sacks.

And at least one NFL analyst, Dan Orlovsky, is noticing:

But does the endorsement of an NFL analyst mean anything nowadays? At one point in time, there were only a handful of analysts that spoke to a national NFL audience. Now, every sports channel, media outlet, or even some popularized on the internet alone, has an NFL analyst spokesperson. That is not to diminish the word of Dan Orlovsky. It's simply that we need to do a bit of digging on our own to ensure that the data matches the praise.

Time for some trend analysis

But as we noted in the previous slide, the Rams defense gets plenty of pressure from the front four as well. So what else should we be looking at? How about tabulating the Rams defensive performances, per game, of the 2024 NFL season so far? That can give us both data and trends to analyze:

*drag the bar at the bottom of the table to left or right to display what you want to see

So what does the table tell us so far about the Rams defense?

Trend 1 - Pass defense is 'not bad' since Week 3

After getting torched by the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers in Weeks 2 and 3, the Rams' secondary became a bit stingier. The Rams allowed seven passing touchdowns in the first three games, and only five passing touchdowns in the past four games. Not only that, but the team has allowed an average of just 185.5 passing yards over the past four games. Coincidentally, DB Ahkello Witherspoon has been competing over the last four games.

Trend 2 - Rams are allowing fewer points per game

This defense started the season feeling very generous, allowing opposing teams to score an average of nearly 35 points per game in the first two contests. In the next three games, the defense improved to allowing teams to score just 24 points per game. No, that's not just the average score. In Weeks 3 through 5, the defense allowed opponents to score 24 points in each game. But over the past two games, since the BYE week, the defense has allowed opponents to average just 17.5 points per game. That coincides with the team's two-game winning streak.

Trend 3 - Rams run defense is getting very respectable

The Rams run defense has shown the most improvement. This team allowed an average of 177 rushing yards per game over the first three contests. In the past two games, that average dropped to just 93 rushing yards per game on average. And the team's best rush defense occured in Week 8 when the defense held the Minnesota Vikings to just 64 rushing yards. Should I mention the fact that run-stuffing savant Omar Speights debuted for the Rams in that contest?

Still not convinced? Chiding the Rams defensive coordinator seems to be an annual event. But LA Rams DC Chris Shula deserves far more respect than he is getting right now. The team did not exactly start him out with All-Pro players. Instead, the team has invested in a very young defense per Shula's specs. Over time, this group has absolutely gotten better.

While more tests and contests await the group in the future, one image is beginning to come into focus. The defense appears to be up for the challenge

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