10 bold predictions for LA Rams 2024 offseason

It's a new month on the calendar, and the LA Rams have a lot of work to do to prepare for the 2024 NFL season. That itself could be a shocker for some Rams fans, depending on how they view the LA Rams 2023 season performance. So let's be quite clear: The LA Rams exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for 2023.

This is not an article that suggests otherwise. But this is not a perspective that is willing to ignore the reality of the NFL. After all, the LA Rams coaching staff has been picked clean once more, while the coaching staff of the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, the two teams that will meet and compete in Super Bowl LVIII, are left relatively unscathed.

No, this is a brand new season for the LA Rams. That means everything that you might think it means. That is, the LA Rams will have a brand new coaching staff. The team is likely to have many new faces on the Rams roster. And the Rams front office will be tasked with navigating the perils of the 2024 NFL Free Agency market as well as the 2024 NFL Draft.

Unlike other seasons, the Rams enter the 2024 NFL season with a bit of a revelation. The Rams do not need to pay top dollar to get the best value added performances out of players. In terms of best bang for the buck, the Rams learned through their own undeniable first-hand experience that some of the best value comes from those players who are the most overlooked.

So, the question is: How will the LA Rams apply that knowledge to restocking and reshaping the Rams roster for a new run at an NFL Championship. Can the LA Rams organization carry Head Coach Sean McVay to his third Super Bowl Appearance in his eighth NFL season? I think that the team can do so, and

And so, I intend to go out on a limb for the Los Angeles Rams by declaring 10 bold predictions for the LA Rams 2024 offseason. So here we go:

10 bold predictions for LA Rams 2024 offseason

1. 10: Rams will extend Michael Hoecht, Coleman Shelton, and Alaric Jackson
2. Why bring them back?
3. 9. Rams will draft a QB in first two days of the 2024 NFL Draft
4. 8: Rams will not sign a new FA within the first 3 days of the new season
5. 7: The Rams will re-sign former WR Odell Beckham Jr.
6. 6: Rams will cut either Joe Noteboom or Brian Allen, but not both
7. 5: Rams will let all 4 veteran defensive backs walk
8. 4: Rams will draft 2 wide receivers
9. 3: Rams will not sign nor draft a kicker, but will sign 2 rookie kickers after the 2024 NFL Draft
10. 2: Rams draft a shutdown corner on Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft
11. 1. Rams sign Kevin Dotson to multi-year deal

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10: Rams will extend Michael Hoecht, Coleman Shelton, and Alaric Jackson

We'll start out slowly in this anthology of bold predictions by declaring the LA Rams front office will do something that some may not foresee as a sure thing. In this prediction, we believe that the LA Rams will extend three low-cost veterans for the 2024 NFL season and very likely beyond. The players who will re-sign with the Rams on team friendly contracts are: OLB Michel Hoecht, C Coleman Shelton, and OT Alaric Jackson.

On the face of it, that does not seem too radical. Both Michael Hoecht and Alaric Jackson are restricted free agents, and can be locked into a one-year deal to play for the Rams with a Qualifying Tender Offer. And while Coleman Shelton is technically still under contract, he met the conditions to void the second year of his contract by playing more than 55 percent of the Rams offensive snaps. But even though he will void his contract, the Rams will want to re-sign him.

I have seen some present each of these players as someone who can be upgraded with the right addition to the Rams roster. And in the Shan-Gri-La utopian world of the NFL offseason, I can see how that could be argued. But let's not ignore key factors that impacted the performance of these players in 2023.

Why bring them back?

The most obvious is the coverage of OLB Michael Hoecht. But no outside linebacker in what is essentially his rookie season shows up well when forced into coverage of a speedy wide receiver. In 2023, he put up 81 tackles, 6.0 QB sacks, two pass deflections, one forced fumble, seven tackles for a loss, and 11 quarterback hits. In terms of pass coverage, he was better than many credit him for, allowing just 24 of 31 passes to connect, a catch rate of 77.4 percent. While not superb, he is improving rapidly and has earned the right to return in 2024

When it comes to the Rams offensive center, there is more to the job than Coleman Shelton's performance. Shelton called the Rams blocking assignments at the line of scrimmage, Per the stats from Pro Football Focus, Shelton played 1,113 offensive snaps, allowed just two quarterback sacks, and was guilty of six penalties. But as a whole, the Rams' offensive line was a formidable and essential group that not only protected QB Matthew Stafford but paved the way for RB Kyren Williams. But Shelton's greatest contribution is the fact that he suited up for over 1100 offensive snaps. Oh, and Shelton played incredibly well in the NFL Playoffs.

Many believe that the Rams can upgrade at left tackle by moving Alaric Jackson to fill the projected void at right guard, but I don't see it that way. Jackson had his first chance to start for the LA Rams at left tackle and played incredibly well for his maiden voyage at Matthew Stafford's blind side. He did not get much help from 12-personnel packages either. Per PFF, In 968 offensive snaps, Jackson allowed just one quarterback sack and was flagged for three penalties. If he had heard his name in Round 1 of an NFL draft, many NFL pundits would be singing his praises. Jackson played an incredible first season at left tackle, and will only get better in 2024.

9. Rams will draft a QB in first two days of the 2024 NFL Draft

There are many reasons to argue on either side of the debate over whether or not the LA Rams will draft a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. The more I talk to NFL draft analysts and scouts, the more convinced I become that the depth and talent of the rookie class of 2024 warrant a strong consideration by any team projected to need a quarterback in the next three NFL seasons.

Due to the LA Rams facing a seasoned veteran Matthew Stafford's age, and the fact that the Rams do not have a clearly defined backup quarterback on the roster for 2024 yet, the Rams are one of the teams that could and should take advantage of adding a quarterback now. You don't try to buy insurance after the house burns down. By that time, it's too late. And the LA Rams know just how important having a true QB2 on the roster with experiences in both 2022 and 2023 when starting QB Matthew Stafford was injured.

Now is an ideal time to bring in a talented quarterback who has all of the physical attributes to play the position, but who may need time to fully develop into an NFL-ready hurler. In the latest Top-50 2024 NFL Draft board dropped by NFL Analyst Daniel Jeremiah, he has six quarterbacks listed among the top 50 rookie prospects in the group. In 2023, just three rookie quarterbacks were selected in Round 1. In 2024, many expect that number to double.

Per NFL Draft Buzz, the LA Rams selected the 10th-ranked rookie prospect in 2023 in QB Stetson Bennett, a player graded with a respectable 82.2 grade in the rookie class. But the class held four quarterbacks whose height was under 6-foot-1: Stetson Bennett, Jaren Hall, Jake Haener, and C.J. Stroud were all quarterbacks who were drafted despite less than-ideal NFL height for the position.

The rookie QB class in 2024 all stand 6-foot-1 or taller until you get to Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who stands just 5-foot-11.

The Rams love to load up at positions that are at an historic surplus, and the 2024 rookie class may hold a robust supply of talented quarterbacks. If the right one falls to the Rams in the first two days of the draft, I believe that the Rams will select that quarterback. And with the rookie class showing signs of holding plenty of talented QBs, I expect more than one top-tier talent to fall to the Rams.

8: Rams will not sign a new FA within the first 3 days of the new season

The hurry-scurry pace of any NFL Free Agency market is dizzying, as the rumors and reports of NFL veteran free agent signings seems to be locked into a feeding frenzy that does not dissipate for days. But a longer view perspective over the opening of the next NFL season suggests that much of the work and money spent happens rather quickly.

While many will look for the LA Rams to shop early in the 2024 NFL Free Agency market, i don't believe that the Rams will be active, at least in signing new players, early in the 2024 NFL season. I do think that the Rams front office will be actively engaged in extensions for some of the players whose contracts expire this year. And for a longer-range benefit, I believe that the Rams may be hard at work vetting and assessing rookie prospects in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft.

And this does not preclude the Rams actively engaging in the NFL trade market. The Rams may be actively seeking a willing trade partner to offload some of their future draft picks for present day players.

But if you are one of the many Rams fans who are of the opinion that the Rams will sign a franchise left tackle, quarterback-terrorizing edge rusher, or shutdown cornerback in the opening minutes of the 2024 NFL Free Agency market, I would think again. The Rams were incredibly successful in 2023 in free agency signings by adhering to adding players at or nearly at the NFL minimum.

Look for more of the same in 2024.

7: The Rams will re-sign former WR Odell Beckham Jr.

The LA Rams have had a bit of a track record in reuniting with former players who spend a season or two elsewhere, but are quite happy to re-sign with the LA Rams. I believe the next former Rams player who returns to the fold could very likely be veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr.

OBJs most successful chapter in his nine NFL seasons since leaving the New York Giants was the half season spent playing for the LA Rams. And as far as postseason competition, nothing over his nine years comes anywhere close to the success he enjoyed with the Rams offense.

OBJ joined the LA Rams mid-season in 2021, and truly had to learn the Rams offense on the fly. Even with limited knowledge of the playbook, he managed to haul in 27 of 48 passes thrown his was for 305 yards and five touchdowns. But that was just the beginning. In the 2022 NFL Playoffs, he added 21 of 26 catches for 288 yards and two more touchdowns. If not for an ACL injury before halftime in Super Bowl LVI, he would have piled up well over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns.

But history was written another way for his NFL career.

While he had a rather successful 2023 season with the Baltimore Ravens, he was completely ignored by the Ravens offense in the playoffs. In two games, he was only targeted seven times, catching four passes for 34 yards. And we all know that if you ignore OBJ in the game plan, he loses interest rather quickly.

OBJ checks all of the boxes for the LA Rams needs at the WR position for 2024. And in many ways, WR Demarcus Robinson played a role in the Rams offense that Odell Beckham Jr. filled in 2021.

The Ravens agreed to pay OBJ $15 million for one year in 2023. At that price, he is highly unlikely to be extended. Current salary projections for OBJ have his 2024 salary nearly at $12 million per year. I do not expect any team to meet that price. In fact, I believe that the LA Rams could re-sign him to a two-year deal that starts at $12 million and hold incentive clauses to earn an additional $4 million.

You heard it here first.

6: Rams will cut either Joe Noteboom or Brian Allen, but not both

The LA Rams did not have a lot of money to spend in 2023. and so the Rams were quite savvy at getting incredible bang for the buck last season. While overpays were few and far between, the LA Rams can be accused of overpaying swing tackle Joe Noteboom and backup center Brian Allen in 2023. Adding insult to injury, they are on track to triple their combined cost for 2024.

The Rams paid Joe Noteboom $6.5 million in 2023 to start eight games in 2023. Three of those starts were at right guard, Two starts were at left tackle. And finally, three were at right tackle. So in the grand scheme of things, his versatility made his contract a solid value for the Rams last season. Backup center Brian Allen was paid $3.05 million in 2023, and played just 29 offensive snaps.

But Noteboom is slated to make $20 million in 2024, while Allen is slated to make nearly $7.3 million. That is far excessive for the roles that either player will fill in 2024. And so, the Rams will need to lower those costs, and quickly. Ideally, the Rams will be able to renegotiate the terms of thos contracts. Because Noteboom fills a solid role as swing tackle, his 2024 salary ought to come in at $6-7 million, while Allen at backup center should be in the $2-3 million range.

I don't believe that both players will agree to accept a pay cut, and may stay firm with the belief that if they are cut they will land a new contract with a new team. I believe that the Rams will successfully renegotiate the contract to more reasonable terms with one player, and be forced to cut the other player to reallocate salary dollars.

But don't ask me which player at this point.

5: Rams will let all 4 veteran defensive backs walk

There are plenty of reasons for the Rams to try extending some, if not all of their defensive backs. After all, the group of CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB Duke Shelley, S Jordan Fuller, and S John Johnson III played most of the defensive snaps for the Rams in 2023 (with the exception of Shelley), so it makes sense for the Rams to attempt to extend them.

But that could be a problem. You see, the LA Rams spent just over $4 million on all four players in 2023, and got good value at that price. The Rams are likely able to get no more than one or two players back at that same price point, which shifts a great deal of rick back to the Rams for the 2024 NFL season.

The Rams currently have six defensive backs under contract for the 2024 NFL season, plus two more on Reserve/future contracts. If the Rams add defensive backs in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Rams could create a pretty solid secondary at minimal cost:

• LCB - Cobie Durant | Cameron McCutcheon
• Slot - Tre Tomlinson | Rookie CB
• RCB - Rookie CB | Deriod Kendrick
• S - Quentin Lake | Jason Taylor II
• S - Russ Yeast | Tanner Ingle

On paper, the Rams may be able to save a substantial amount of salary cap dollars in 2024 by investing heavily in young defensive backs. Will the Rams suffer in the quality of play if they adopt this strategy? Well, one thing is certain. The Rams defense will be led by a new defensive coordinator, and many of the current candidates have strong backgrounds in coaching secondaries.

The Rams new DC, whoever he may be, may insist upon drafting new defensive backs who align with his defensive philosophy and scheme. While there are plenty of solid reasons to justify re-signing some if not all of the Rams veteran DBs, I think the Rams opt to invest salary dollars elsewhere, for now.

4: Rams will draft 2 wide receivers

The LA Rams receiver room is beginning to feel a bit empty. it will feel even more spacious after the Rams lose two projected wide receiver free agents in Austin Trammell (ERFA) and Demarcus Robinson (UFA). Even if the Rams extend Trammell, which makes a lot of sense, the team will not be able to resist selecting new offensive weapons for Rams HC Sean McVay.

Whether it was an incredible stroke of luck or genius, the Rams were able to offset a sub-par season from WR Cooper Kupp by finding an elite rookie wide receiver in Puka Nacua. But Kupp's regression in 2023 highlighted the Rams need to add more talent to the wide receiver room in 2024. Even if Cooper Kupp is able to return to his normal form, and Puka Nacua remains on his current trajectory, the Rams offense is still short one more receiver who can test the depth of the secondary while being solid enough to move the chains on third downs.

The Rams need a Van Jefferson or a Josh Reynolds type of receiver at the least.

But the Rams are not known to simply shop and stop when it comes to the wide receiver position. Of course, the Rams only draft one WR In 2023. But the Rams like to add multiple wide receivers whenever possible, and that is typically when there is not obvious need at the position. There is a need for more talent this year.

With 11 projected draft picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, and four falling among the Top 100 picks, the Rams can address the wide receiver on both Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft. On Day 2, the Rams could plan on adding a player who could be expected to earn a WR3 role on the team for the 2024 NFL season. And the Rams could add additional depth, and perhaps a key special teams contributor, with a second WR selection on Day 3.

3: Rams will not sign nor draft a kicker, but will sign 2 rookie kickers after the 2024 NFL Draft

The LA Rams are very frustrated over the state of their not-very-special special teams in 2023. And they have a right to be frustrated. But let's be clear. The Rams did not do ST Coordinator Chase Blackburn any favors whatsoever. The Rams front office failed to extend a single veteran special teams specialist for 2023, which meant that Blackburn had to do a phenomenal amount of work just to assemble a special teams core.

In terms of identifying and adding players, I am content with punting phenom Ethan Evans, who not only showed off his hydraulically-powered punting in 2023, but also handled the Rams kickoff duties. And as far as undrafted long snapper Alex Ward, he was fine until he fell to injury. That led to less than ideal situations in terms of getting punts blocked.

But the real burr in the saddle for Rams fans was the state of the Rams starting kicker. The Rams started OTA and the 2023 Rams Training Camp with rookie kickers Christoph Dunn and Tanner Brown. Dunn was dismissed quickly. But Brown struggled in his final preseason game, which prompted his release. The Rams then added K Brett Rypien, then K Lucas Havrisik, then back to K Brett Rypien. The Rams then signed former K Tanner Brown to a Reserve/future contract for 2024.

So where doe that leave the Rams?

Many believe that the Rams will either sign a veteran FA kicker in 2024, or draft a top rookie kicker prospect. But I am not convinced that either path is part of the Rams strategy. There are too few veteran FA kickers who will test their FMV in free agency this year. And the Rams may not view kickers in the 2024 NFL Draft as worthy of selection in Round 6 (the Rams do not have a pick in Round 7 at this time).

That means that the Rams are likely going to go back, Jack, and do it again. That means signing two kickers after the 2024 NFL Draft and letting them compete for the starting role. What about Tanner Brown? While I believe that the job is his to lose, the Rams trialed three kickers in 2020. I believe that they will trial three kickers in 2024 as well.

2: Rams draft a shutdown corner on Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft

The LA Rams have a lot of needs to shop for in the 2024 NFL Draft, but I would be extremely surprised if the Rams do not select one of the top cornerbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft on Day 1. While the order of the top five cornerbacks may change after the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, my top five CBs in this draft currently include:

1. Iowa Hawkeye CB Cooper DeJean
2. Clemson Tigers CB Nate Wiggins
3. Alabama Crimson Tide CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
4. Alabama Crimson Tide CB Terrion Arnold
5. Georgia Bulldogs CB Kamari Lassiter

The Rams have enough rookies added to the defensive side of the football at the edge and defensive line in 2023 to view those positions as a Best Player Available option. But the Rams cannot let another draft slip past them without infusing new talent onto the roster, particularly a premier cornerback.

The absence of All-Pro DB Jalen Ramsey was felt in the Rams secondary in 2023. While I believe that veteran CB Ahkello Witherspoon played well for the Rams, the front office seemed content to infuse slot cornerbacks to the Rams roster, and hope that the coaching staff could develop one or more into an outsider cornerback. Unfortunately, the Rams did not accomplish that goal successfully.

Shutdown CBs do not appear in the NFL Free Agency market often. When they do show up, the cost is astronomically high. I believe that the Rams success with drafting key contributors in the 2023 NFL Draft will give them enough courage and confidence to attempt to find and select a shutdown cornerback who can make an immediate impact in this Rams defense in 2024.

And I think that he will.

1. Rams sign Kevin Dotson to multi-year deal

While the cards are stacked against him, the LA Rams have a much higher interest in keeping their core group together than at any time in their history of GM Les Snead and HC Sean McVay. The Rams have never extended a seasoned offensive guard since the two have united and led the Rams to the NFL Championship Game twice in the past seven years. But I think it will happen this year.

Of course, that won't happen if Rams starting right guard Kevin Dotson holds out for the highest bidder. If the Rams perceive Dotson as motivated by the most money, that could hamper negotiations to bring Dotson back. Still, don't interpret that as a belief that Dotson must be willing to give the LA Rams organization a significant home-town discount. He deserves to be paid.

But compensation is a fleeting thing. Some players get money, but no playing time. Some players get money and playing time, but our downright miserable competing for a team that is realistically not competitive. And even if all of those boxes are checked off, football is essentially a game. Is the player having fun playing football? Or has it become a lunch pail grind of showing up to get ground down?

One of the unique characteristics of the LA Rams is the fact that so many veterans seem to rekindle their enjoyment of playing football on the team. Once you are having fun, so many other factors become less vital. Now don't interpret that as if the Rams are kicking back and taking a season off in 2024. They are going to compete for the NFL Championship next season. But they are one of few teams that will enjoy the season every step of the way.

I think that means something to Kevin Dotson, at least enough to lure him to negotiate with the LA Rams in good faith until the two sides hammer out a deal to his satisfaction. Dotson may be offered more money to play elsewhere. But, I think he truly enjoyed his first season playing for the LA Rams, and wants more where that came from.