2023 lessons allow Rams to gauge the price of success, riling up analysts

The LA Rams are now being held 'accountable' for the price of trading up from the 52nd overall pick to the 39th overall pick in Round 2, the trade that allowed the front office to reunite two dynamic and irrepressible defensive players from the Florida State Seminoles defensive front.

After the team selected OLB Jared Verse with the 19th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the most logical and ideal next selection would be for his teammate, DL Braden Fiske. With the sudden appearance of a run on defensive linemen, and the Rams clearly in need of a showstopper at the position, the Rams were forced to pay the ransom price demanded by the Carolina Panthers: The 52nd pick, the 155th overall pick, and a 2025 NFL Draft pick in Round 2.

By the way, the players selected from those picks involved in the day's transactions were:

• 39th overall pick - DT Braden Fiske, Florida State, to the LA Rams
• 52nd overall pick - WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas, to the Indianapolis Colts
• 155th overall pick - ILB Jeremiah Trotter, Clemson, to the Philadelphia Eagles
• 2025 NFL Draft, Round 2 -To be determined

If you noticed, not one of the picks traded by the Rams to the Panthers so far were used to select a player by the Carolina Panthers.

The funny thing about assess the value of a transaction is the opposite side of the argument. What might have been the opportunity cost if the team did NOT trade up to select Jared Verse's wingman Braden Fiske? You do not need to spend hours upon hours of viewing Florida State games to understand the synergy that is found in pairing up Fiske and Verse.

Think of Verse and Fiske as weights to be applied on opposite ends of a barbell. If you only have weights for one side, you have some utility of those weights. But, add the opposite end weights and you multiply the overall value of those weights exponentially. Keeping Verse and Fiske together in the NFL will grant the defense that exponential value, and we will explore that even further.

But for now, we need to explore the entire allegations being charged against the LA Rams today. Did the Rams really overpay?

Did the Rams overpay?

How much does that cost? Does the value of this transaction equate to the cost? Those are the questions that we ask ourselves on a daily basis. It happens at the grocery store. It happens at the beauty salon, the barber, the gas pump, and even the fast food drive-up window.

Whenever you need to reach for your wallet or purse, you have already asked yourself the question, and decided: Yes, it's worth the cost. Even if it's a huge price hike at the gas pump, the only option is to pay the price, or do without. And therein lies the rub.

Let's revisit Round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft. At the time the Rams agreed to terms with the Carolina Panthers to move up in the draft, the following defensive tackles had already been selected:

• DT Byron Murphy II, Texas, by the Seattle Seahawks at 16
• DE Darious Robinson, Missouri, by the Arizona Cardinals at 27
• DT Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson, by the Atlanta Falcons at 35
• DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Illinois, by the Washington Commanders at 36
• DT T'Vondre Sweat, Texas, by the Tennessee Titans at 38
• DT Braden Fiske, Florida State, by the LA Rams at 39

So here is the question that is not being asked. While the Rams paid a premium to trade up to the 39th overall pick to select Braden Fiske, was that spot too lofty for Fiske? Or had Fiske fallen to a point where he was a huge bargain at 39?

Let's explore that with an analogy. If a mansion in your favorite neighborhood goes on the market, and slashes its asking price from $1.2 million to $300,000, will you complain if your mortgage interest runs at a 6.4 percent rate? I seriously doubt if your dream house suddenly becomes affordable to your family budget, that would refuse to bid on the home due to unfavorable terms of mortgage.

Premium price for a true bargain? Make it make sense

My point is that on NFL.com, Braden Fiske was the fourth-highest-ranked DL prospect on their big board. On NFL Draft Buzz, Fiske was projected to be selected in Round 2, but among the Top 10 selections of that round. So what would the cost have been had the Rams traded from 52 to 33? To 35? Had the Rams been forced to trade higher, a spot where Fiske may have been selected in other scenarios, would 'experts' still be sounding the alarm of an overpay like this:

The inherent value of a top-tier player escalates quickly as the supply for that level of perceived talent at that positional group dwindles. Five teams after three players are far less motivated to pay the asking price to trade up for one of those players than three teams after one player.

Another flaw in any what if . . . ? scenario is the circular logic that is used to deflect the reality of Braden Fiske's selection at 39. Some have argued that the Rams could have stood pat and selected Ohio State DT Mike Hall Jr. at 52. Well, here is the problem with fictional what if . . .? scenarios. They are fictional.

The fact is that had the the LA Rams not selected FIske at 39, who is to say that another DT-needy team would not have made that trade? And it was pretty common knowledge that the Rams were shopping for a stalwart defensive lineman early in this draft. On many draft boards, Mike Hall Jr. was a less-talented prospect who was projected to fall into Round 3. Wouldn't the Rams selecting Hall mid-Round 2 have been the equivalent of trading up for Fiske, but only with a player who does not harbor the same fit and upside for this defense?

The San Francisco 49ers traded a king's ransom to trade up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select QB prospect Trey Lance. Was that an overpay? Well, seeing the production gleaned from Lance in the 49ers offense, it most certainly was. But few touted the trade at the time.

Value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder

The LA Rams have all the confidence in the world about their draft board, and they have every right to exude that confidence. Without a pick in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft, the team emerged with the equivalent of four first-round rookies. Ultimately, the value of any player has nothing to do with where they are selected in the draft, but what they contribute to the team.

Now here comes the fun part of this article.

Imagine the gotcha opportunities the team would have had if they had traded up in Round 2 for OLB Byron Young, or for NT Kobie Turner? As it was, the draft analysts were not all too kind about the team's rookie class of 2023, simply because they viewed players chosen by the team to hold lesser value than other options that were still on the draft board.

Fast-tracking rookie learning curve

What is the value of the Verse/Fiske chemistry in this defense? That is a topic worth discussing now. After all, we know that OLB Jared Verse and DT Braden Fiske have an incredibly coordinated and cohesive wave of destruction and outright obliteration that they perfected by competing as teammates on the Florida State Seminoles defense.

Even as the Rams will be instructing all rookies in individual drills and techniques, the bonus of having Verse and Fiske on the roster will start to show up as soon as this defense starts to drill against the offense. We should see signs of that violet chemical reaction when the team begins to compete in preseason games.

The Rams learned lessons from the 2023 rookie class. The team took note of the bond between OLB Byron Young and NT Kobie Turner, and how that close friendship became a friendly competition. It was that friendly rivalry throughout the season that elevated the performance of both rookies to the pinnacle of success on the defensive side of the football.

Now the team is harnessing that close friendship deliberately. Iron sharpens iron. But it needn't be exclusively defensive lineman versus offensive lineman. It can be teammate vs. teammate at practically any position.

I see that the Rams are onto something here, and it may take some time before other NFL teams and draft analysts catch on to this new and provocative tactic. The Rams have not added two players to this roster. Rather, the Rams have literally cut a significant component to the Seminoles' success on defense and grafted it into their own defense. Will it sprout in 2024?

Yes. Yes it will.

Thanks for reading.