Don't look for Rams QB Matthew Stafford to hang up his cleats just yet

The LA Rams have a contractual relationship with veteran starting quarterback Matthew Stafford through the end of 2026. But not all is as it seems. Per the contract details for Stafford at Spotrac.com, the Rams have the option to sever their contractual relationship with Stafford at the end of 2025. While I cannot predict if the Rams will want to part ways with Stafford at the end of the 2025 NFL season, I can assure you that the Rams are not looking for a different starter for the 2024 NFL season.

Speculation? Perhaps. But the Rams have a financial incentive to keep Stafford around. And if you have any basic knowledge of just how competitive Rams QB Matthew Stafford can be, it's safe to say that he will play as long as an NFL team is willing to pay him to do so. Sometimes, you just know what you know.

The LA Rams, and particularly head coach Sean McVay, love what Matthew Stafford brings to the LA Rams offense.

Perhaps that is one of the distractions that has mitigated Stafford's impact in the Rams offense. With a quarterback who seems to be able to do it all, make any throw, and lead the Rams offense back for a comeback victory, it's easy to forget how to optimize the entire offense and simply sit back and let Stafford work his magic.

Rams love to throw, and Stafford can

The truth is that the Rams can no longer allow the tail to wag the dog. For Stafford to be most effective, the LA Rams must halt the wonderment and hands off approach to the offense, and strategically place Stafford in a position where his aggressiveness and throwing forte can make a huge positive impact on the outcome.

it's no secret that the LA Rams offense loves to pass the football, and it's that affinity to throw that becomes counter-productive at times as more and more defensive coordinators have learned to bait the Rams into throwing into the jaws of very adept pass defenses. We know from painful experience that the Rams will ignore historically weak run defenses if the Rams believe that they see opportunities or need to throw. And that willingness, combined with Stafford's aggressiveness, is oftentimes used against the Rams. Defenses have learned how to dictate to the Rams' offense. That does not serve this team well.

Yes, this is one more 'run the damned ball,' type of article. But it's not necessarily what you may think of with that theme. Let's delve into the topic a bit more and it should start to make sense.

Why Matthew Stafford has plenty of NFL play left in him

1. Rams have to reformulate the offense if Stafford is a no go
2. Stafford shines when Rams run
3. Stafford needs help now
4. Why Stafford will play through 2025
5. Stafford still got it
6. Rams need Stafford to elevate offensive weapons

Rams have to reformulate the offense if Stafford is a no go

If you have not noticed it yet, let me be the one to break the news to you. Now in his third NFL season in the LA Rams offense, Matthew Stafford has a completion rate of 65.7 percent. But in 2023, Stafford's season completion rate has plummeted to just 60.8 percent. Now, hold that thought, because we will be coming back to it soon.

We know the LA Rams depend heavily upon Stafford's passing to help win ball games. But the Rams' offense does not leverage that respect for Stafford's ability to threaten defenses enough, in my opinion. What I mean is this. The LA Rams pivot far too often to a pass-centric offensive game plan that fails to succeed in victories, places Stafford unnecessarily in harm's way, and plays right into the hands of savvy defenses.

Stafford shines when Rams run

The Rams are 5-5 with Stafford under center. And in all but four games, Stafford's completion percentage for games has been under 62 percent. So what is the common element that helps Stafford buoy his completion percentage? Running the football. Let's create a data table to illustrate that fact:

What do you see in the data above? Well, there is a correlation for the LA Rams between Matthew Stafford's accuracy at throwing the football and the Rams commitment to run. You may note that after the Cardinals win, the Rams lost RB Kyren Williams for four games. He returned in Week 12, and the Rams offense was able to pulverize the Arizona Cardinals.

Stafford needs help now

In the NFL, no single player can win alone. No player knows that more than the quarterback. NFL QBs depend entirely upon their offensive linemen to protect them from defenders, on receivers to catch the ball, and on running backs to carry the football, pick up defenders who break free, catch the football, and carry the football often enough to keep defenders guessing.

The Rams have learned that lesson the hard way this season. But the brunt of that oversight has impacted Rams QB Matthew Stafford. When the Rams offense stops running the football, defenses pin their ears back to defend the pass and bring down Stafford. Without the threat of a running game, Stafford is helpless to turn losses into wins.

Stafford still has enough potency to compete in the NFL.

Why Stafford will play through 2025

Rams fans, and fans of any NFL team, often get frustrated by the win loss record of the team. And the simplest answer for fans who are searching for a scapegoat to pin their frustrations on is often the quarterback.

Yes, Matthew Stafford may not be playing lights out this season. But who of us can decipher whether its Stafford himsel, Stafford trying to play through injury (throwing hand thumb), or just poor game planning?

To get a feel of Stafford's performance this season, I've queued up his profile on NFLsavant.com, and you can review his 2023 profile by clicking on this link here. If you want to get a quick perusal of Stafford's numbers, just check out the Tweet from LA Rams correspondent J.B. Long, below:

Let's go offer the terms of the data used by Long in the chart above:

• TD Passes - self-explanatory
• INT - interceptions
• Adj. Yds/Att - Weighted adjusted average yardage of a quarterback's passing attempts while accounting for touchdowns and interceptions.
• Sack % - The percentage of times a QB is sacked vs. the number of times he goes back to throw a pass
• QBR - Total QB rating
• PFF - undefined term
• EPA - Expected Points Added
• EPA / Play - Expected Points added per play
• 4QC - Fourth quarter comebacks
• GWD - Game-winning drives
• BTT - Big Time Throws
• BTT% - Big Time Throws percentage to the total number of throws
• TWP % - Turnover Worthy Play rate - Percentage of plays that should have resulted in a turnover (i.e. hit defensive back in hands with the pass, but he dropped it)
• aDOT - Average Depth of Target
• Drop % - Rate of receivers dropping 'catchable' balls

As you can see by the above quarterback metrics, there are many ways to assess the value and contribution of an NFL quarterback. Many of the factors that make Matthew Stafford so valued by the LA Rams coaching staff simply do not appear in the vanilla post-game box stats. Stafford's forte is changing the momentum and outcomes of games. That takes years for rookie quarterbacks to understand, let alone master.

Stafford still got it

Need more proof? Here are some passing stats from NFL Next Gen Stats that you may find interesting:

• Time to throw - 2.72 seconds - 13th fastest in the NFL
• Avg Completed Air Yards - 6.6 - 3rd longest in the NFL
• Aggressiveness - 13.6 % - 15th in the NFL
• Longest completion - 51 yards - 21st in the NFL

While you may not be astonished with some of Stafford's numbers, here is some more information to help you frame his 2023 NFL season. Stafford's top receivers this season:

1. Rookie WR Puka Nacua - 73 of 111, 924 yards, 3 TDs
2. WR Tutu Atwell - 36 of 60, 467 yards, 3 TDs (previously 18 of 35, 298 yd, 1 TD)
3. WR Cooper Kupp - 27 of 51, 393 yards, 1 TD (played 7 of 11 games)
4. TE Tyler Higbee - 32 of 51, 332 yards, 2 TDs
5. RB Kyren Williams - 19 of 30, 166 yards, 3 TDs (played 7 of 11 games)

There is not a lot of accomplished experience in the group now.

Rams need Stafford to elevate offensive weapons

With the list above, do any of the names invoke fear or concern in secondaries around the NFL just yet? The Rams deliberately reformulated their offense this season, but the truth is that both Cooper Kupp and Stafford himself have been injured this year. That means that the Rams passing attack, once rostered by some of the best receivers in the NFL, has been forced to allow rookie Puka Nacua and seldom-used speedster Tutu Atwell to do the heavy lifting for the team this season.

The Rams had parted ways with veteran WR Allen Robinson before the 2023 NFL season and traded Van Jefferson after just five games. Since the Rams front office has been content to allow the team to compete with untested receivers, it's logical to assume that the Rams foresee Stafford as the pilot flying this offense until the offensive skill players are well-established.

While the 2024 NFL Draft may be very tempting to add a quarterback to develop in the future, do the Rams see it that way? When the Rams were 3-6, I was firmly convinced that the Rams would be selecting a quarterback in the upcoming draft. Now? I'm not as certain. If the Rams can string together wins to make a playoff push in 2023, I'm convinced that this team will view the 2024 NFL Draft as the pitstop for the final touches to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy.

Stafford has already led the LA Rams to one NFL Championship win. If the Rams earn a playoff berth this season, I cannot see the Rams turning over the keys to an untested rookie next year.

LA Rams veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford is not hanging up his cleats just yet. And depending how the 2023 NFL season turns out, that may very likely be what the LA Rams are counting on.