Door could be opening for the LA Rams to trade for a prominent All-Pro

Is this the year for the LA Rams to finally step up to the podium on Day 1 of an NFL Draft? if so, it will be the first time that the team has done so since hiring Sean McVay as the head coach of the team. Still, it isn't in the history books until it's history, which means that there is still plenty of time for the team to find other uses for a first-round pick. Like what? Well, a trade is always an option. Now, here's why:

The Rams love to trade for players, simply because they know up front what are the risks. If they have vetted the player correctly, they understand the likely production on the football field. And with a contract already negotiated, there is certainty of how much that player would cost the team in terms of salary cap impact.

The trick is, finding a motivated team that is willing to field offers for a game-changing player who is heavy in on-field production and light on the purse strings. Ultimately, trades in the NFL do not happen more frequently simply because every team is chasing the same types of players. So once the team has an elite player on the roster, that typically is the end of any interest in trading the player unless the contract overpays or the player underproduces, neither of which makes a trade for that player likely.

Of course, there are certain situations when a player excels, but the team fails, and the contract for an NFL elite veteran. As of today, there are no verifiable sources that the Los Angeles Chargers are shopping All-Pro outside linebacker Khalil Mack, but his name has appeared on social media speculation as someone who could be traded this year. The Chargers are $45 million over the cap and trading Mack would free up $23.25 million. While there are no concrete reports that he is being shopped, it would be shocking if he was on the Bolts in 2024.

The Chargers need to get under the cap for 2024, and the only way to do so is to either cut or trade players. Cutting players outright does shed salary dollars, but gives the team nothing in return. For a player of Khalil Mack's stature, that would be a serious waste of resources. So the optimal option for the Chargers is to pursue a trade. Now the question is, what would a trade look like?

Let's talk about the trade, and reasons behind it

1. What would a trade look like?
2. Why the Chargers would not do this trade
3. Why the Rams would not do this trade
4. Why the Chargers would do this trade
5. Why the Rams would do this trade

What would a trade look like?

In 2022, the Los Angeles Chargers traded a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 sixth-round pick to acquire OLB Khalil Mack from the Chicago Bears. At the time, Mack had a down season for the Bears, playing just seven games, and recording 16 tackles with 6.0 quarterback sacks. It was the first season for Mack not to earn any honors.

Since then, Khalil Mack has played two seasons for the Los Angeles Chargers and earned Pro Bowl honors in each season. In many ways, he delivered exactly what the team needed. In terms of game-play, 2023 was arguably the best season of his 10-year NFL career. In 2023, Mack recorded a phenomenal 17.0 quarterback sacks, 74 tackles, 21 tackles for a loss, 22 quarterback hits, 36 quarterback pressures,10 deflected passes, and five (yes, 5) forced fumbles.

While he was not used in pass coverage often, he only allowed one of two passes thrown to his receiver to find the mark.

So what might a trade look like? Well, considering that he has just one year left on his contract, and the presumption that the Chargers are motivated to make a trade happen, I would imagine a package like this:

The Chargers get a Round 3 pick in 2024, which can be used to draft a rookie replacement, plus up to two picks in 2025. Conditions to trigger the second pick could be based on number of games played, percentage of defensive snaps, or some other insurance for the Rams to get sufficient playing time out of Mack in 2024, the final year of his current contract.

The Chargers dump over $23 million of salary from their payroll, and get a return on a player who could ultimately cut with no return whatsoever.

Why the Chargers would not do this trade

A player whose ability to change the momentum on the football field like Khalil Mack is not a player who comes along each season. If the Chargers have any expectation of competing in the post-season in 2024, they may think long and hard for ways to ensure that Mack is on their roster.

Pass rushing is always at a premium in the NFL, and as such it's a difficult decision to part ways with one of the NFL's best at getting pressure on opposing QBs. Can the Chargers replace Mack if they do trade him away? Has the front office exhausted all possibilities of renegotiating his contract, perhaps extending him for several years into the future, while shrinking his 2024 salary cap impact?

Even if a trade is an optimal way to ensure getting something for Mack, it may not be the only resolution for the Chargers efforts to restock their roster for 2024 and beyond.

Why the Rams would not do this trade

Importing an elite playmaker like Khalil Mack dictates the roles on the team's defense. Much like how the Rams defense adjusted to accommodate veteran OLB Von Miller, the Rams would need to repurpose other outside linebackers into coverage to allow Mack to do his thing against opposing quarterbacks.

The cost to the rest of the roster could be very pohibitive. If the plan to develop pass rushers was the reason for adding players like Byron Young, Ochan Mathis, and Nick Hampton to the roster in 2023, then adding Khalil Mack to the roster in 2024 may derail the career development of those rookies.

The Rams traded a pretty hefty package to rent OLB Von Miller for one half of the 2021 NFL season, and were quite confident that they could lure him to re-sign with the Rams. But the Buffalo Bills offered a more enticing package (thank you Bills!), only to have Miller suffer an injury that all but benched him through 2022. That is always the risk with adding elite players. If they suffer an injury, that pretty much wipes out the entire season.

Why the Chargers would do this trade

The goal of shedding salary cap dollars to give the Los Angeles Chargers some financial wiggle room cannot be overstated. The team is projected to be over ($40 million) over the 2024 NFL salary cap. And if the team is looking to sign rookies, add players to positions that are in need of depth, and have enough left over for emergency signings through the course of the season, they will need to free up about $60 million. Shedding $23 million with one player is a huge step in the right direction.

It's always a plus to get draft picks for a player. The Rams front office was willing to trade All-Pro DB Jalen Ramsey for a third-round pick in 2023 and TE Hunter Long. So a Chargers trade of Khalil Mack for a third-round pick in 2024 plus up to two more picks in 2025 should not be scoffed at. The Rams added NT Kobie Turner in Round 3 and WR Puka Nacua in Round 5 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Sometimes draft picks can yield league-leading rookies.

The Charges have an additional incentive to trade Mack to the LA Rams (over cutting him) in that they control his destiny. The Rams compete in the NFC Western Division, and as such are unlikely to face the Chargers for several years, and are not in direct competition for one of seven playoff berths. That matters when considering the destination for a solid player like Khalil Mack.

Why the Rams would do this trade

If you believe like I do that the LA Rams have a strong likelihood of competing in Super Bowl LIX, then trading for an elite pass rusher is almost a prerequisite for the team's roster this season. The Rams learned that veteran leadership is critical for winning in the post-season, and the presence of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. in the 2022 NFL Playoffs certainly helped the team win four games that led to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Khalil Mack, while he may need some rearranging on the Rams defense to be ultimately effective, brings a whole lot of pain when he gets to an opposing quarterback. If 2024 tracks as well as 2023, Mack could put up 20.0 or more quarterback sacks when lined up with DT Aaron Donald and NT Kobie Turner. Adding his sack total to that of the entire Rams defense immediate catapults the team from the bottom third in the league to the number one spot.

The Rams have high expectations for Kobie Turner in 2024. The same can be said for Byron Young in 2024 as well. But imagine the firepower if the teams could line up Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner, Desjuan Johnson/Michael Hoecht, and Byron Young on the same defensive front?

The Rams may truly appreciate the value of draft picks after doing so well in the 2023 NFL Draft. But an opportunity to trade for Khalil Mack could persuade the Rams back to the negotiating table.