How are the LA Rams in another 3-year cycle? It's how the Rams roll with Snead and McVay

If you knew the future beforehand, would that change your destiny? Well, don't look now, but the LA Rams have all the appearance of extending another 3-year cycle that has been occuring over the past eight seasons. Right now, every shred of evidence suggests that it's about to happen all over again.

By now, you are either waking up drowsily with a warm and fuzzy feeling over the LA Rams or you have been facing Friday, December 22, 2023, with an unshakable smile on your face. In either case, you know that the LA Rams (8-7) have just won their fifth of six games and a very much in the hunt for a berth in the NFL Playoffs once more.

And yet, when these same Rams limped into their Week 10 BYE with a record of 3-6, nobody was thinking a second thought about the playoffs. In fact, there was far more attention being placed on the 2024 NFL Draft. But the LA Rams organization had other plans.

All-In takes a toll on everyone in the Rams organization

Is this some form of self-fulfilling prophecy? Are the mental and physical strains of climbing the mountain of NFL success to compete for an NFL Championship so great that it takes a full three years to recharge for another run? Perhaps. While I don't think that plays a role in all NFL teams' ability to reach the pinnacle in the NFL, it certainly has an impact when the LA Rams are involved.

The Rams have gone All-In to reach the Super Bowl, and have been accused of mortgaging the future for present day success. While that could be a casual conclusion, the idea does not stand up to the evidence of the Rams history of success under HC Sean McVay and GM Les Snead.

The flaw with that line of reasoning would lead to the conclusion that the team was willing to win once, but would pay a huge cost in the aftermath. But the LA Rams have had no such 'hangover' in terms of falling to the bottom rung of the NFL ladder for years at a time. Rather, like a super ball, the Rams hit the floor hard, but seem to bounce even higher in the next cycle.

So, let's take a look at how this Rams team has fallen into a familiar pattern once more.

Let's look into the unexplainable 3-year LA Rams lifecycle

1. What is this zany LA Rams life-cycle?
2. The LA Rams pattern holds again
3. What is driving the Rams 3-year pattern?

What is this zany LA Rams life-cycle?

We first mentioned the LA Rams' three-year life-cycle of the LA Rams back in January 2023. Due to the way the LA Rams have been playing, we revisited the theory of the Rams' three-year cycle once again in November 2023. Like the astronomical enigma of pulses of electromagnetic energy from a distant quasar, the Rams appear to be locked in a pattern of success that defiles any quick and dirty logical analysis.

In short, the Rams have gone from an unsuccessful team that misses the playoffs to a team that competes in the playoffs but is shown the door quickly, to a team that competes in the Super Bowl. That pattern has been adhered to in the past two three-year cycles in the past, and the LA Rams appear to be amid Year 2 of the three-year cycle now. So what is my proof?

The LA Rams pattern holds again

Just check out the data below:

Cycle I:
2016: 4-12
2017: 11-5, 0-1 NFL Playoffs
2018: 13-3, 2-1 NFL Playoffs, Lost in Super Bowl LIII to NE Patriots 13-3

Cycle II:
2019: 9-7
2020: 10-6 1-1 NFL Playoffs
2021: 12-5, 4-0 NFL Playoffs, Won in Super Bowl LVI over Cincinnati Bengals 23-20

Cycle III:
2022: 5-12
2023: 10-7, sixth-seed NFL Playoffs
2024: 10-6 NFC West Champions, 1 game remaining

It's something that defies logic or sense. It's a regular cycle of success that seems to suggest that there is a limit to NFL resources to withstand fierce competition. On one hand, NFL teams can be perennial playoff participants. But have the LA Rams proven that to get to the top in professional football, a team must be willing to commit tomorrow's dollars and draft picks into present day rostered players?

What is driving the Rams 3-year pattern?

The truth is that there is almost no way to dissect and give scientifically sound evidence of how the LA Rams repeat their success. But, let's step back for a moment. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? After all, if this is a pattern of the Rams' own making, is it acceptable to deliberately hit a restart button every three years for an NFL team in pursuit of a Super Bowl victory? Or does the fact that the Rams appear in a Super Bowl every third year make it all worthwhile?

Factor III: NFL limits.
The NFL has created speed bumps in the ability of teams to remain successful and challenge the historic dynasties of the NFL's history. Believing that a more competitive league is better business, the NFL has created limits to the NFL salary cap that impacts all teams, and the better a team does, the worse off that team falls in the next year's order in the NFL Draft.

Factor II: Coaching staff retention
Perhaps the worst part of it is the fact that when the LA Rams are successful, it appears as though all NFL teams that seek a winning culture in their team's future cannibalize the Rams coaching staff to start their own successful run in the NFL. The Rams have certainly been a team that has sprouted plenty of NFL head coaches from Rams HC Sean McVay's coaching tree.

Factor I: Pay me factor
I speculate that the greatest impact that forces these LA Rams into a three-year cycle is the way the LA Rams prioritizes paying key players. Do LA Rams players stop trying after they get paid? We asked the question after the 2019 season, and could just as easily have asked the same question after the 2022 season. The LA Rams love to reward players for the team's success. But that pattern of lucrative contracts resets the timer on the Rams' window for success. Ultimately, the Rams must part ways with players who are not playing up to their contract value, swallow a large amount of dead salary cap, and start over.

• 2018 dead cap space – $16.8 million ( 9.4 percent)
• 2019 dead cap space – $13.6 million ( 5.9 percent)
• 2020 dead cap space – $38.5 million (19.4 percent)
• 2021 dead cap space – $30.8 million (17.1 percent)
• 2022 dead cap space - $26.7 million (13.25 percent)
• 2023 dead cap space - $77.7 million (34.6 percent)

While there are many forces at play, notice how quickly the Rams dead salary cap seems to spike in the same three year pattern?

If the same holds true for the Rams in this three-year cycle, then you would and should expect the Rams to be free spenders in the upcoming 2024 NFL Free Agency market. And that shopping spree could carry the Rams over the top to another Super Bowl appearance.

In the end, it all appears to be a vicious cycle for the LA Rams. But if it results in a Rams Super Bowl appearance every third season? I'm willingly along for the ride.