LA Rams draft needs, hit rates, and when should Rams pick a QB?

The LA Rams have a perplexing and difficult challenge as the team embarks on turning the corner after a Week 10 BYE to attempt crawling out of a 3-6 record back to .500 or better football. But the downside of failing to turn the corner and get hot in the 2023 NFL season could mean that the LA Rams have a solid bank of draft picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

As of today, November 17, 2023, the LA Rams are projected to hold ten draft picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, with the team's first pick appearing in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft, potentially as the seventh overall pick of the draft.

Which leads us to the topic of discussion. When should the LA Rams target a franchise quarterback? Or, on a larger topic, which positions in the NFL are more dependant upon when that player is chosen in an NFL Draft?

Rams only have one pick in Round 1

After all, you could make a compelling argument for the LA Rams to draft a quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher, shutdown cornerback, tight end, wide or even a stout interior defensive lineman in terms of positions of need for the Rams right now. But even with the Rams first pick in Round 1 since the team hired head coach Sean McVay, the Rams only hold three of the Top 100 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft.

So the Rams must prioritize which position to address, knowing that all other positions will suffer as the Rams front office will address those positions later in the draft, from an ever shrinking pool of talent.

Isn't that what makes it all a challenge after all? Rams fans are as limited as the LA Rams. But that does not stop anyone from fixating on a prospect as the annual NFL Draft approaches, comepletely disregarding the obvious fact of who may be selected before the Rams step up to the podium. And fans tend to recall the prospects that were hits, while instantly forgetting those prospects who were not instant successes. But there is one more problem. What is the definition of 'hitting,' on draft picks, anyway?

What are the right positions for the Rams to target early in the 2024 NFL Draft?

1. What is the criteria for a draft hit?
2. Which positions are more likely to hit on Day 1?
3. What happens to those positions that must wait for Day 2?

What is the criteria for a draft hit?

What constitutes a true 'hit' for a rookie prospect who is selected in the NFL Draft? For some, that is a lofty bare to get over. A player could be held to a standard of making the Pro Bowl before their rookie contract expires. Or even held to such an elite status that they earn All-Pro honors before that four year rookie contract expires.

But is that truly a fair assessment? In a July 2022 article by Charlie Parkinson of the33rdteam.com, he asserts that a hit can be defined simply as a "drafted player who signs a second contract with the team that they played their rookie contract on." While that creates some challenges for the LA Rams (which we will discuss later), it does give us a place to start. Parkinson examined the draft classes of 2013 through 2017, and the positions that were selected in the first round of those five draft classes.

Problems with simple criteria

The problem which such a simple definition does allow for virtually anyone to decipher the answer of the complex question with a simple binary litmus test. If a rookie is extended by the original drafting team after that player's rookie contract expires, that prospect is a hit.

For all NFL teams, any decision to extend a player is not just about that player's competency. What if the team has limited funding? What of the teams that strategically allow competent players to seek bigger paydays elsewhere, but who are still quality starters? The recent history of the LA Rams is littered with examples of players who were still contributing, but who were forced to seek employment elsewhere.

Complex challenges commonly oppose the use of simple answers. But even a simple answer is easily disputed on its merits alone. Do fans agree that the first overall player selected faces no greater scrutiny to success in the NFL than the 32nd player chosen in an NFL Draft? But if you do not believe that they should be held to the same standard, where do you draw the line?

Knowing these limits at a minimum allows us the opportunity to venture forth knowing that we are close, but not scientifically accurate, with our analysis. Like sticking your finger into a bucket of water, we can be hot, tepid, cool, or ice cold in our analysis. So let's proceed:

Which positions are more likely to hit on Day 1?

Not all positions in the NFL are created equally. No, I'm not trying to sound philosophically elite. I'm simply highlighting the fact that due to the way NFL teams try to establish themselves on the football field, and distribute limited salary dollars among various positional groups, teams set different priorities.

But even positions, due to the number of positions played in the NFL simultaneously, have a natural priority. Quarterbacks are deployed by NFL teams one at a time. But the fact that quarterbacks handle the football on each offensive snap and are vital to the performance of the overall offense make them one of the most valued and prioritized positions on an NFL roster.

But even NFL positions can change in value. Running backs were viewed as a vital position not so long ago. But with rules changes, changes of offensive philosophy, and a general belief that anyone can run the ball effectively in the NFL, NFL front offices no longer view running backs as good investments now. But the simple test of Parkinson circumvents all of this by simply applying one standard to all players: Were they extended by their original team?

Parkinson's hit rates from 2013-2017

So what did Parkinson discover about the hit rates of five NFL Drafts? Well, the data was not uniform, and the range of frequency suggests that NFL teams place far more value on certain positions than others. It's also fair to assess the fact that NFL teams are naturally biased to select offensive tackles and wide receivers, as those positions require multiple players to perform on the NFL field simultaneously.

That is not the case for a quarterback, which almost always appears only once per team on the football field at a time. So this tells us that wide receivers, offensive tackles and offensive guards should outnumber quarterback selections by a rough ratio of two to one.

And here is what Parkinson's data revealed:

The hit rates from the above table give us a rough sense of which positions are selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. But there is more information that needs to be considered.

Quarterbacks tend to be selected early in Round 1, oftentimes being named as the first or at least among the top five players selected in the draft. For that lofty selection, the player must perform at a very elite level indeed. Do you consider Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray to be a success or an utter failure? What of Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields? What of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance? The plot, it seems, thickens.

What happens to those positions that must wait for Day 2?

The LA Rams could benefit by upgrading virtually every position on the roster. On the other hand, upgrading is also a bit subjective. After all, if the LA Rams can feel relatively secure at landing a solid starter on Day 2 for an offensive tackle, but know that there is not a similar chance of deferring the selection of a quarterback, the Rams must attempt to find that franchise quarterback first.

The challenge for many fans is a bit of tunnel vision. We perceive the needs of the Rams roster without any repurcussions of getting it wrong. If we believe that the Rams must draft an offensive tackle first, there are no penalties for that selection if it proves to be less effective for the Rams overall roster.

All is not lost if the LA Rams do not adhere to your plans for that selection on Day 1. As the Rams have proven with so many competent and productive Rams rookie players chosen in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams have the ability to find and select Week 1 starters as late as Round 5 on draft day.

How does deferring impact key positions?

Deferring QB selection could be foolish for Rams

Arrowhead Pride Western Chief covered the topic of deferring positions from Round 1 to Round 2 in terms of starting at the position. He focused on the following positions: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, and DB. His timeframe covered the 2005 until 2014 drafts. Over the selected timeframe, his distribution of positions is as follows: 122 QBs, 207 RBs, 421 OL, 143 TEs, 317 WRs, 442 DL, 303 LBs, and 510 DBs. While this is a bit simplistic as well, here is what he found:

For offensive linemen, tight ends, linebackers, wide receivers, and even defensive backs, the drop from Round 1 to Round 2 is minimal. For quarterbacks, the drop out of Round 1 is a precipitous fall. The difference between Round 1 and Round 2 is greatest for QB (-36%), RB (-33%) and DL (32%).

While many argue that the Rams should draft an offensive tackle in Round 1, the success rate of offensive linemen in Round 2 is an eye-popping 70 percent. Curiously, based on the data table above, the chances of finding a starting defensive lineman actually improves in Round 4 over Rounds 2 or 3.

While some will look at the success rate in Round 1 and stop there, that does not tell the entire story. Like it or not, LA Rams starting quarterback Matthew Stafford is up in years and will need a padawan sooner rather than later. Unless the LA Rams opt to go the far more expensive route by shopping for an elite quarterback via trade or the 2024 NFL Free Agency market, the Rams' best option appears to be selecting a rookie quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft.