Rams 2024 Offseason Primer: 5 steps before the NFL Free Agency market

It's a weekend gone by without the LA Rams competing in a football game. It's Monday, January 22, 2024, and by the time you are reading this, we are running out of football in a big way. Just three more games remain in the 2023 NFL season: The AFC and NFC Championship Games, and then the NFL Championship Game.

And for Rams fans, the painful and nearly tortuous wait. Not for the 2024 NFL season to officially get underway, no. But the painful, drawn out process that the fans must endure now. Which coaches (if any) will be poached by other team? The LA Rams have already lost one of the best and brightest coaches on the staff when Run Game Coordinator/Defensive Line Coach defected to assume a Co-Defensive Coordinator role with nearby USC.

How many others will follow?

It's still early, and the LA Rams have a lot of internal meetings to hold and discussions to have before this team is prepared to face the 2024 NFL Draft. For fans of any NFL team that is not looking forward to the next game, the 2024 NFL Draft is the next landmark NFL milestone. In terms of wait, it is nearly juxtapositioned between this moment and the return of real football action next season.

The thing is, the thrill of this LA Rams team should not, can not, be based on the next goal or goals. Savor the flavor. Did you realize that the Rams rookie class of 2023 is perhaps one of the most talented rookie classes ever? It certainly has made a strong case to be considered one of the most accomplished rookie classes in the history of the franchise.

The 2023 NFL season had a bit of everything. From the thrill of victory to the agony of defeat, the LA Rams covered it. And the LA Rams 'feel' like a team that is better than many teams that had and are still competing in the NFL Playoffs. The team that had an 8-18 run through 2022 through Week 10 of the 2023 NFL Season after winning Super Bowl LVI, turned everything around on a dime and went on a 7-2 streak. It's that team, that 7-2 team, that has left us all in optimism and hungry for more.

LA Rams offseason priorities

1. Preface: 2024 is a brand new team
2. Step I: Recruit coaches
3. Step II: Rework contracts
4. Step III: Re-sign players
5. Step IV: Review positional spending
6. Step V: Make a shopping list for the 2024 NFL Free Agency market

Preface: 2024 is a brand new team

Perhaps one of the most difficult things about cheering for an NFL team is the acceptance that a new season truly is a brand new team. That can mean many things to many people, but it universally means that what was is not what will be. Let me explain:

Let's start at the point where we knew that the LA Rams meant business in 2023. The LA Rams loaded up a depleted coaching staff with new and reputable faces at this time last year. For the most part, it was the infusion of new ideas, dramatically esteemed experience, and a willingness to consider new concepts that truly laid a foundation for dramatic improvement for this team. To the NFL question that borders as enigmatic as the Chicken or the Egg paradox, the LA Rams proved once and for all that coaching surpasses talent.

So much so that the Rams organization's coaching staff is once more the best and most cohesive in the NFL. And in just one year, many have become irreplaceable.

The LA Rams were a very young team in 2023. With any rookie class, it takes time to acclimate to the new NFL experience. And so it was for the Rams rookies, While everyone on the Rams roster played their hardest, the team was a brand new configuration. From offensive line to secondary, even returning players had to acclimate to new teammates, new coaches, new strategies, and ultimately, and new way of doing things.

But the Rams were more than a combination of prior team veterans and new rookie faces. Despite having limited funds, the shrewd bargain-basement Rams front office snagged a number of key contributing veterans from the 2023 NFL Free Agency market who were willing to sign for the veteran minimum, with a chance to remake a name for themselves and reestablish their reputation as competitive football players.

Step I: Recruit coaches

The starting point of any successful new NFL season starts with reassembling the right coaching staff. Sometimes that means parting ways with those coaches who did not meet necessary objectives either behind the scenes or on the football field. At other times, it means recruiting and hiring top-echelon coaching talent that has moved on voluntarily, either through lateral offers, or promotions.

In 2024, the LA Rams will need to hire a new DL coach to take over for former Rams DL Coach Eric Henderson. But the Rams may lose other coaches as well. DC Raheem Morris, having served as the LA Rams defensive coordinator, is interviewing for a number of head coaching positions. For many reasons, he could be hired as the new head coach of an NFL team this year.

But he is not alone in the 2024 coaching carousel cycle. Rams TE Coach Nick Caley and QB Coach Zac Robinson are interviewing for offensive coordinator roles with the New England Patriots.

Even Rams ST Assistant Coach Jerry Springer is interviewing for the Patriots ST Coordinator role. So even as the Rams coaching staff is less likely to be cannibalized this offseason, there still could be vital and multiple roles to fill.

Ultimately, the Rams may need to hire as few as one or as many as four or five new coaches to prepare for the 2024 NFL season. Even that minor difference can make a huge deal for 2024. We know the impact that a solid and experienced coach can make in this offense, like RB Coach Ron Gould. Not only is hiring the right coach the first step chronologically, it is far and away the most important step.

For now, we can push a pin on this topic, as that is its own set of conversations. Next up? Let's free up some money.

Step II: Rework contracts

The 2024 NFL salary cap is not firmly established just yet, but there are enough websites like OverTheCap.com or Spotrac.com that have perfected the art of projecting what those cap figures will be. The sites disagree on the 2024 available cap space, but it's because the underlying details are different.

The Over the Cap figures of $27.5 million of available cap space is probably the more accurate of the two (Spotrac has $48 million of available cap space) because they have assigned minimal contract values for all 14 players signed to Reserve/Future contracts. The real answer is likely somewhere between the two numbers, as only the Top-51 contracts count against the salary cap number.

So, with that in mind, we have to assume that the Rams front office will want to free up some space.

The Rams have several options to do so in the early stages of the offseason. If the goal is to shed dollars, the Rams can outright cut underperforming players. If the Rams wish to retain those players at a better FMV or simply to lower the current cost, the Rams can restructure or renegotiate contacts. Finally, if the Rams want to part ways, but get something in return, they can trade a player.

So who might the Rams tap for salary cap savings? Here are a few players who may be given the nod to help free up 2024 salary cap space (Per OTC.com on January 22, 2024):

The players listed are not arbitrary, nor are they suggestions with some hidden agenda. They are simply the LA Rams highest paid players not named Matthew Stafford or Aaron Donald.

While you could make an argument for a Rams restructure of WR Cooper Kupp, who struggled with injuries in 2023, I don't believe that the Rams will seek savings from their All-Pro receiver on one sub-par season. I do believe that the Rams will seek savings, however, from backup offensive linemen Joe Noteboom and Brian Allen. And, if they do not acquiesce to restructuring their contracts, they could face being cut outright.

Let's assume that both players agree. That will generate an additional $12.5 million to add to the team's 2024 coffers. If we ballpark the Rams available salary cap space in 2024 at about $45 million, we now have the framework to work with in terms of a budget for spending in 2024.

Step III: Re-sign players

The LA Rams have quite a few free agents to consider to re-sign for the 2024 NFL season. While the approach to the offseason has yet to be formulated, the LA Rams will likely have the contract extensions atop their offseason "To Do," list. The question is, which players will be re-signed, and which will be allowed to test their value in the 2024 NFL Free Agency market?

To understand these questions, and the likely actions taken by the Rams front office to address the questions, let's start by creating a data table of projected Rams 2024 free agents,

Probability Index:
0% - Won't happen - Temporary fill of injured player
25% - Unlikely to happen. Disappeared from the roster late in the season
50% - Could happen. Saw some action. Could return on a team-friendly contract.
75% - likely to happen. Either a vital depth or rotational player. But finances are a factor.
100% - Almost certain to happen. But is anything certain with the LA Rams?

What does that tell us? Well, if you use a standard risk assessment process, you can calculate the probability of the Rams extension outlays for 2024 by multiplying projected salaries by the probability of that extension. Of course, the projections of 2024 APY and probability are subjectively assessed, but if you want to arrive at a more comfortable number, simply change to your specific tastes and roll the dice.

From the above matrix, if the Rams concentrate on extensions alone, the team is likely committing $32 million, or nearly all of their existing salary cap space, just to entice players to return. And the matrix does not reveal who will be extended. It simply allows a relatively easy financial forecast. In essence, it the Rams have a 50/50 chance of signing two players, each with a projected $2 million salary in 2024, the odds work out as follows:

• 25% - neither signs
• 50% - one of two signs - $2 million spent
• 25% - both sign - $4 million spent

Let's assume that the Rams do create savings, and now have $15 million to spend on rounding out the 2024 Rams roster. Are we ready to spend money just yet? Not quite.

The LA Rams must now review where they have invested too heavily, and where they have invested to sparsely. To do that, the Rams must review their positional spending.

Step IV: Review positional spending

The LA Rams, like all 32 NFL teams, are allotted a specific amount of money to spend each season on salaries, which has come to be known as the NFL salary cap. Because the Rams must mete that fixed amount out to the 53 players on the Rams roster each year, the Rams have a unique financial strategy towards winning against other teams. Some teams invest heavily in their offense. Some teams invest heavily in their defense.

Because NFL teams begin with the same starting point, the decisions made regarding how they spend that money can be tracked and compared by assessing the NFL positional spending tables compiled by OverTheCap.com or Spotrac.com. So why take this step?

By assessing how the Rams have spent their funds in comparison to other teams, you can get a pretty accurate feel of where the Rams will likely spend money in free agency this offseason. So . . . How does that work? Let's examine the case of whether or not the LA Rams will extend FA IOL Kevin Dotson?

Right now, we know that the LA Rams have three free agent extensions that are vital to the team: LT Alaric Jackson, C Coleman Shelton, and RG Kevin Dotson. Now, review where the LA Rams are in terms of salary commitments to offensive linemen in 2024. Regardless of which number you use, whether Sportrac or OvertheCap, you can assess that the Rams' outlays for 2024 are about at the midpoint in terms of offensive linemen. If the Rams extend Shelton to about $4 million/year, and extend a Second Round Qualifying Tender Offer to Alaric Jackson of $4.633 million, the Rams will have added nearly $9 million to their salary expenses, all of which has been invested in the offensive line.

But then we must consider the offset of restructuring contracts. If the Rams invest $9 million, but save $12,5M, the team has shaved the cost of the OL group by $3.5 million. Low ball estimates to extend Kevin Dotson are $12.5 million, and could reach as high an $18 million for 2024. Will the Rams commit that much to one player, particularly one who plays at an interior offensive line position?

The Rams positional group spending right now is skewed heavily to offense. If you express the Rams to regress towards the norm in 2024, you are likely to see the Rams spend heavily on the defensive side of the football. That could be great news for DBs and OLBs, but may not shine the best light on spending money on offensive linemen or backup QBs in 2024.

It's not a perfect system, but it does point you in the right direction in terms of how the LA Rams, or any NFL front office, approaches free agency spending.

Step V: Make a shopping list for the 2024 NFL Free Agency market

Okay, after all of the previous steps, you have armed yourself with a lot of valuable information. What am I referring to? Well, you have an pretty good idea of how much money you can spend in the offseason. You have a pretty good idea about which players will be extended, and which players will test their value in the 2024 Free Agency market. The final component to the 2024 spending limit is the estimation of the salary cap pool needed to sign drafted rookies.

The rookie pool for the 2024 LA Rams draft class is estimated by OverTheCap.com to be nearly $11.6 million. But thanks to the Top-51 rule in the offseason, the salry cap impact of the 2024 NFL Draft is only $3.6 million. That is due to the fact that rookies will bump lower cost players below the Top-51 threshold.

So after all steps to this point, the Rams will likely enter the 2024 NFL Free Agency market with somewhere between $5-20 million to spend. Now comes the tough part. How can the Rams squeeze so little into enough meaningful free agents?

Where do the Rams need help? Where have the Rams underinvested? How can the LA Rams truly upgrade their roster most? As fans, we tend to fixate on one bad game, rather than focus on wholesale improvements. Perhaps DB Derion Kendrick had several games with mental mistakes. Should the Rams sever all ties with him as a hopeless cause? Or can the Rams trust the coaches to train him to improve his play?

Let's look at this another way: Does it make sense for the LA Rams to spend all available cap space and surrender key draft picks to the Carolina Panthers for DE/OLB Brian Burns, all the while knowing that rookie OLB Byron Young was as productive and 1/10th of the cost?

NFL teams target positions, set a price range, and then try to match a player to the budget. Rather than dictate to you, the reader, you are now on your own. Keep in mind that shopping effectively in free agency is not only about getting the best players. The ideal goal is to get the most effective players at the best value.

The LA Rams added RB Royce Freeman, DBs Ahkello Witherspoon and John Johnson III, and WR Demarcus Robinson to the Rams roster for the veteran minimum. And the Rams were able to earn a playoff berth despite spending next to nothing.

Spend wisely, play hard, remain durable. The LA Rams learned valuable lessons in 2023. If the team applies those lessons learned in 2024, the Rams could be competing in the next Super Bowl.