Rams failure to trade up to 39 would have been the greater evil

By now you have heard the buzz about the LA Rams' decision to trade up to the 39th overall pick in Round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft to ensure that the team could select Florida State defensive lineman Braden Fiske. If you follow the 'math' of data analytics, you would fall into the trap of believing that the team overpaid to make that selection at 39.

If we limited the scope of our discussion to draft picks, draft value charts, and 2025 NFL Draft picks, that assessment would be correct. After all, math is math. And if you assign a relative value to picks, and adhere to that value, then it's simply comparing one side of the equation to the other. Comparing the relative value of the 39th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to the relative value of the sum of the 52nd overall pick, the 155th overall pick and a 2025 Round 2 pick will result in lesser relative value at 39.

Still, the Rams front office willingly accepted that trade, and the Rams front office is pretty astute. The trade looked like this:

But we are leaving out two major parts of the equation, aren't we?

Let's throw this into reverse and start again, but this time in low and slow gear. After all, the fundamental value of NFL Draft picks is 0. That's right, it's zero, nada, zilch. The pick's only value comes with the right to select rookie prospects in a specific order that is defined by the player who is selected.

Nobody is silly enough to cite the draft value chart of an NFL team that trades up to make a selection for a highly touted rookie quarterback. Many NFL teams that need a rookie quarterback are raked over the coals if they do not trade up to select a quarterback. So any 'overpaid' argument has its limits. So, what are those limits?

The quality of the player selected

Whenever assessing the value of a draft pick, do not lose sight of the fact that the draft pick is merely currency, and the value of currency reflects what you can buy with that currency. What that means is that a pick at the same spot in an NFL Draft has differing values based on who is on the draft board with that selection. Huh?

Let's equate draft picks to the ambiguous digital currency known as Bitcoin. To some, Bitcoins hold tremendous value. As of 7:45 am PT on May 4, 2024, the relative value of 1.0 bitcoin is translated into $63,667.97. But you cannot just walk into a bank and convert bitcoins into US currency. You must find a site that either: accepts Bitcoin for purchasing or translates Bitcoin into currency. It's much easier to invest in bitcoin than it is to divest from it. To others, Bitcoins hold no value.

Draft picks are the same way. Picks have no intrinsic value by themselves. The value that they possess lies in what those picks can acquire for the team. In the case of the 39th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the value of that pick was the opportunity to select DT Braden Fiske and add him to the LA Rams roster.

But if you compare the value of picks offered to acquire Fiske, they are much less comparative value than that offered to acquire Carolina Panthers DE Brian Burns. Few argued that the team was overpaying with that offer at the time. The Rams traded a Round 4 and Round 6 pick to the New England Patriots to rent RB Sony Michel for one season. There were no alarms sounded at the 'overpay' for a veteran running back who was almost certain to be released from the Patriots roster.

Clearly the Rams believe that the value of Braden Fiske is the equivalent of a Round 1 player. Are they correct? While his individual value to the team can be up for debate, don't lose sight of the fact that Fiske enhances the value of selecting Jared Verse in Round 1 as well.

So, breaking this down, the trade up for DT Braden Fiske allowed the Rams to:

• Select the top Round 2 target on their draft board
• Complete the set of acquiring two key contributors of Seminoles defense
• Upgrade the value of Jared Verse selection in Round 1
• Ensure that the defense lands a rookie who can start in 2024

You may or may not agree with all of those presumptions. But the Rams front office does. And they are the originators of the trade up to 39.

The impact of getting the pick right

The other glaring omission of any trade up that involves future picks must consider the impact of getting the current pick right in relation to the value of that future pick. Here is what I mean.

The range of relative values assigned per the NFL Trade Value Chart ranges from the greatest value of 580 for the 33rd overall pick to 270 for the 64th overall pick. Why does that matter? Well, accepting a future year's draft pick introduces a level of uncertainty as to when in that round the team will be able to make the pick. So if the Rams traded 52 (380 value), 155 (29.4 value) and a 2025 Round 2 pick (TBD), for the 39th overall pick (510 value), the presumed value to the Carolina Panthers for that Round 2 pick is 100.

But the least value that pick can be is 270. So the Rams still overpaid, right?

Well, as we have emphasized all along, only if the players on the draft board at the time of that pick hold value to the Panthers in 2025.

If the LA Rams get the pick correct, and rookie DT Braden Fiske rocks the NFL and becomes Defensive Rookie of the Year, helping the Rams to win Super Bowl LIX along the way, the Panthers Round 2 pick in 2025 holds the value of 270, which is nothing more than a glorified Round 3 pick.

It just so happens that the Rams hold two picks in Round 3 of the 2025 NFL Draft: Their originally allotted pick, and the second awarded Round 3 compensatory pick for the team's loss of DC Raheem Morris to the Atlanta Falcons as their new head coach.

Ideally, you would have wanted to see the Rams pay a discounted price to move up in Round 2. But with the Philadelphia Eagles notably bidding on the move to 39, a Rams failure to trade up to 39 would have been the greater evil. NFL teams know that you must control what you can control. If the Rams sat back and waited, other teams would have had an opening to trade up for Fiske. The knowledge that the Rams needed a defensive tackle early in the draft may have opened the floodgates for multiple defensive linemen to be pulled off the draft board.

In the end, the LA Rams emerged with two Florida State Seminoles, perhaps the best college defense in 2023. Now, it's all up to the Rams defense to coach them up into rising NFL stars.

Stay tuned. Business is picking up. And most of all, thank you for reading.