Why has Cooper Kupp's ability to catch a pass disappeared this season?

If you want to consider the LA Rams as a team that is in the midst of a reset, or rebuild on the fly, then you have to wonder at the basis that the team used to stick with veteran QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, and DL Aaron Donald. If we are honest, their presence on the Rams roster was intended to be 'weight bearing walls.' But have they served that role?

In the case of All-Pro defensive lineman Aaron Donald, I believe that the reason is yes. But in terms of Stafford or Kupp? Well, Matthew Stafford was injured and unable to suit up for Week 9. But even before his injury, Stafford is not having a Stafford-esqe season. In eight games this season, he has completed 166 of 278 passes (59.7 percent completion rate) for 2070 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He has also been sacked 19 times for a loss of 145 yards. Stafford's current career average over 14.5 NFL seasons is a 63.1 percent completion rate, 3,734 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. But he is not alone in a sub-standard season.

What's up with Cooper Kupp?

In 2023, perhaps one of the most shocking disappointments on offense in wide receiver Cooper Kupp. While he was out for the first four games, when he returned he has yet to resemble anything close to the 2021 NFL performance when he challenged nearly every NFL receiver record of all time.

It's not as though the Rams are not including him in their game plan. In five games, Kupp is getting targeted an average of nine times per game. The problem is that he is simply not catching the football. So far this season he has caught 23 of 45 passes for 364 yards and one touchdown. That is a far cry short of a 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns sort of season.

So whose fault is it?

3 ways that Cooper Kupp's role has changed this season

1. III: Kupp is used as a pseudo tight end
2. II: Kupp is the new Rams deep threat?
3. I: Father Time catching up to Cooper Kupp

III: Kupp is used as a pseudo tight end

We have argued the point that the LA Rams loaded up on tight ends for the 2023 NFL season, but have yet to get anything remotely positive from the tight end room this season. Of the entire tight end group, the Rams have completed 29 of 47 passes for 317 yards and no touchdowns.

Including the Rams practice squad, that is the sum total of six tight ends.

So why do the Rams place blocking responsibilities on wide receiver Cooper Kupp? The short answer is simple. Because they can. The LA Rams base offense is an 11 personnel grouping, which consists of one running back (the first one), one tight end (the second one), and three wide receivers. Because the Rams love to run and pass out of this formation, the responsibility of the wide receivers on running plays balloon to that of a tight end.

Save Kupp for catching passes

While that type of prestidigitation is great to fool defenses on a limited basis, the constant demand placed upon Kupp (and any wide receiver for that matter) to crash down and block a defensive end or outside linebacker over the course of a game takes its toll.

Cooper Kupp is now over 30 years old, is coming off an injury-shortened season in 2022, and has been hampered by an injury already this season. Perhaps it's time to ask less of Kupp in terms of running into a brick wall in blocking. Or here's a wild and crazy idea. How about putting a blocking tight end into the game and sparing the best wide receiver on the team from the wear and tear that comes with blocking immovable objects?

II: Kupp is the new Rams deep threat?

Who cares? The insistence upon who to blame is simply a scarecrow deflection to the ultimate challenge, which comes down to how can the LA Rams get him back on track. So how can the Rams get Kupp back on track? Well, that's something that the Rams coaching staff has to figure out pretty quickly. The Rams have a Week 10 BYE and then must figure out ways to find success over the second half of the season.

We can identify some elements that have contributed to Kup's precipitous drop in reception rate just from a comparative review of his statistics. For starters, Kupp is averaging 15.8 yards per reception, which suggests that with the surge of rookie Puka Nacua, the Rams offense appears to have repurposed Kupp into mid-range and deep routes.

Hail Cooper Kupp?

Let's dive into that a bit deeper. Cooper Kupp is still averaging 8.1 yards per target, which is right in line with his historic norms. But this year, his yards before catch per reception has skyrocketed from 7.6 yards in 2021 and 5.2 yards in 2022 to a whopping 10.4 yards this season. Curiously, Kupp's Yards After Catch (YAC) is still in line with his historic average, as he is only slightly under his career, putting up 5.4 yards after the catch in 2023.

One more data point that stands out is the fact that the Average Depth of Target (ADOT) in 2023 is 11.0 yards, which is nearly 50 percent further than his 7.2 ADOT of 2022.

Evidence that the Rams offense, in an effort to incorporate the best receiver group this season, has traded away WR Van Jefferson, and now has repurposed Cooper Kupp into that type of role. I am uncertain whether Kupp can eventually assume that role over the course of the season, but it is not working out well for the Rams so far.

I: Father Time catching up to Cooper Kupp

The LA Rams front office has a pattern of shedding veterans when they turn 30 years old and are coming off an injury. But the team made an exception for wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who was injured last season but was retained as one of the Rams 'weight bearing walls,' for 2023.

The LA Rams did not hesitate to trade veteran wide receiver Robert Woods as he approached 30. ultimately agreeing to terms to send him to the Tennessee Titans. The Rams did not re-sign veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. after he turned 30 and suffered an ACL injury in Super Bowl LVI. The LA Rams traded an underperforming veteran wide receiver Allen Robinson who was injured in 2022, and turned 30 this year.

Coincidence? I doubt that. I believe that the LA Rams' "nerd nest," simply tracks the pulse of player characteristics, and have concluded that NFL wide receivers who are approaching or exceed 30 years of age and who have suffered an injury are prone to diminishing productions.

Aging gracefully is not in the Rams mantra

This is not some effort to create drama or throw shade on anyone. It's simply a fact of life. Getting older, particularly in professional sports, ultimately results in a degradation of that player's ability to perform. Right now, the Rams have stuck with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, for better or worse.

Part of the responsibility of coaching in the NFL is the comprehension of the limits and strengths of players. There is not one player on the LA Rams roster who will not try to perform their best in whatever task the coaches ask of them,.

Cooper Kupp is one of those players whose discipline and training will have him in the best NFL shape possible. But is he the same player at 30, coming off a hamstring injury, as he was at 28 without injures? If not, why are the Rams expecting him to be?

It's time for the Rams to challenge themselves. This pattern of underperforming and underwhelming offense has become stagnant, even though the Rams appear to be hitting the mark with young talent. The common denominator for both the 2022 and 2023 seasons appears to lie in the fact that the Rams have done little to adapt their strategies to the strength of the Rams roster.

If the Rams can get the game plan to align with the personnel and strengths of this team, I believe that Cooper Kupp will return to playing his best football once more.