Scott Fitterer accidentally set the LA Rams down a new path to success

The LA Rams had just won Super Bowl LVI, but the following season found the team falling out of the upper tier of NFL teams like a meteor burning up in the atmosphere. The 2022 NFL Trade Deadline fell on November 6, 2022, at 1:00 pm PT, and the Rams had fallen to a record of 3-5. It was not too late to turn the season around, or so the team's front office thought. The team needed to land an elite running back and pass rusher. Or so, that is what the front office thought.

The Carolina Panthers were 2-7, and they held elite talent at both the running back and pass rush positions. Better yet, NFL rumors at the team suggested that both RB Christian McCaffrey and OLB/DE Brian Burns could be had for the right price.

So Rams GM Les Snead focused on making offers for those players that no sane general manager could refuse. Per ESPN's Senior NFL Insider Adam Schefter, the Rams offered a Round 2, Round 3, and Round 5 along with running back Cam Akers to the Carolina for Christian McCaffrey.

At the same time, Snead offered up two Round 1 picks and a Round 2 pick for OLB/DE Brian Burns. In essence, the Rams placed two Round 1, two Round 2, a Round 3, and a Round 5 draft picks, plus running back Cam Akers on the table for both McCaffrey and Burns. Then Carolina Panthers GM looked at all those draft picks, pondered the offers for a moment, and then said no.

The Carolina Panthers would eventually trade both players. They would agree to terms with the San Francisco 49ers, and send McCaffrey to the Rams rivals, for Round 2, Round 3, and Round 4 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, and a Round 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to seal the deal. The difference between the two offers? The 49ers tossed in a Round 4 pick that the Rams did not possess. So the Panthers opted for a Round 4 pick over RB Cam Akers.

The Panthers eventually traded Brian Burns as well, after he realized his value based on how much the Rams were willing to give up to trade for him. But due to Burns' salary demands, he would only get a winning bid of a Round 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and a Round 5 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft from the New York Giants.

Rams lose out in 2 trade offers, but there's a plot twist

The Rams would lose out in both attempts to pry elite talent from the Carolina Panthers in 2022. But then-Panthers GM Scott Fitterer would ultimately lose the war, and be fired in January 2024. It was not the trades that Scott Fitterer made that cost him his job. Rather it was that Rams trade that he did not make that Joe Person of The Athletic stated sent him down the path of destruction. Ultimately, the Panthers gave up too much to trade up for QB Bryce Young, and that derailed the Panther's track for rebuilding their team.

"The deal that looks questionable a year later is the one Fitterer didn’t make. The Rams offered two future first-round picks — in 2024 and ’25 — plus a third in ’23 for Burns, who was in the midst of a career-best, 12 1/2-sack season. Trading Burns would have left the Panthers without their best player on a defense that has kept them in a lot of games the past two seasons. But the Panthers might have been able to flip the two firsts to Chicago, allowing them to trade for the No. 1 pick without giving up their own first in ’24 and wideout DJ Moore, who would have been an invaluable weapon for rookie quarterback Bryce Young"

Joe Person, The Athletic

Dean Jones of Cat Crave did an excellent job of connecting the dots between Fitterer's failures to his eventual dismissal. And like any good story, Jones was ahead of his time. Fitterer was fired one year later.

.Of course, if the rear view mirror image of what Fitterer did not do is so shocking as to cost an NFL general manager his job, what does that same image say for LA Rams GM Les Snead? After all, the Rams offers did bear any fruit, so the team ended up keeping and using a multitude of draft picks that were originally earmarked to be shipped to the Panthers.

But there is an easier trek to compare what the Rams might have done, and what actually happened. It needn't attempt to track down the draft picks not exchanged and which players may have been selected by the Panthers.

The Rams were unable to pry elite talent at either the running back or pass rusher positions. So, with no option for outside talent, the team had to grown its own talent at those positions. It's 2024, with 13 games into the season. So far, how did the Rams do?

Christian McCaffrey vs this Rams running back

There is a certain art form to deal-making in the NFL, and Rams GM Les Snead is a Picasso of the NFL deal. When Snead pulls the trigger on a blockbuster trade, you can believe they make headlines. The Rams pulled off trades for All-Pro DB Jalen Ramsey, and veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. But throughout those deals, Snead almost always improves the team.

But the deals are so lucrative, so over-the-top, that even years after an offer is made, we are compelled to look back and shake are heads at any NFL GM who was unwilling to do that trade. Nobody wants to give up more value than they get. But how did the Rams do in the reality of not landing RB Christian McCaffrey in 2022?

Let's find out.

The best way to do this is to compare Christian McCaffrey's history with the San Francisco 49ers, and to pit him against the Rams young running back, Kyren Williams. We can do this with a simple data table:

Based on this data alone, I say the Rams made out far better. Keep in mind that Williams saw almost no action in his rookie season. And his 2023 season was marred by only playing in 12 of 17 games. In 2024, Williams is still going strong, while McCaffrey remains on IR.

Take note too that I did not cite any value of those offered draft picks, nor compare Williams rookie contract to the huge paychecks cashed by McCaffrey. Ultimately those are factors that tip the scale overwhelmingly in favor of the Rams. The curious thing is, Kyren Williams was on the Rams roster when the team offered a very valuable package to acquire McCaffrey.

The Rams didn't need McCaffrey, it seems. They matched McCaffrey's level of production, at pennies on the dollar.

Brian Burns vs this Rams pass rusher

The matter becomes a bit trickier when examining the production of veteran Brian Burns. He continued to play out his contract with the Carolina Panthers through 2023 before demanding to be paid or traded in the 2024 offseason. But the Rams did address their need at outside linebacker in the 2023 NFL Draft by selecting Tennessee's outside linebacker, Byron Young.

Again, Young arrived as a rookie to the Rams defense in 2023, and has competed in the NFL for only two seasons. When the Rams sought Burns, he was already in his fourth NFL season. and on track for his second consecutive season of being honored by the Pro Bowl.

Once more, the best way to do this is to compare the production of OLB Byron Young with that of veteran OLB/DE Brian Burns and see which player has had the better carers in the past two NFL seasons via another data table.

Once again, the numbers are nearly identical. But the tide turns in Byron Young's favor when you start stacking up his rookie contract to the huge payments to Brian Burns. And you cannot ignore the fact that Byron Young was chosen in Round 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3 is a far cry less valuable than picks in either Round 1 or 2.

Thanks to Panthers GM Scott Fitterer, the Rams abandoned their 'win-now,' strategy of roster building, and have assembled a cast of very talented young players on rookie contracts. Eventually, the Rams will need to pay those players, and in many cases, they will.

But when that time comes, the team will be paying players for their production in Horns, and not for production with another team that may or may not translate to the Rams roster.

As always, thanks for reading.

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