4 reasons why LA Rams trading back in 2023 NFL Draft seems likely

The LA Rams continue to be projected to hold ten picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, a nice round number that is more than enough selections for a team that is competing in the NFL Playoffs. But, that’s not exactly where the LA Rams found themselves at the end of the 2022 NFL season, is it? Not only is this team trying to retrace the steps from their 2021 NFL season that ultimately led to a victory in Super Bowl LVI, but this is now a team that is pilotless.

That’s right. LA Rams head coach Sean McVay needs, and deserves, a long break from NFL, professional football, and the LA Rams organization. But the show must go on, and that show is the three-day annual event known as the NFL Draft. Unlike the LA Rams 2022 NFL Draft, this time the Rams can, and should, have set their expectations on landing multiple NFL starting caliber rookies in this draft.

Rams draft in 2023 for Rams roster

But wait just a minute. Yes, the LA Rams’ current draft picks hold far more value in terms of the potential to find talented players. How so? In this year’s draft, the Rams are on track to step up to the podium and make two selections before the team had even had the chance to select a single player one year ago.

The 2023 NFL Draft is chock-full of talented young prospects and depending on how the three-day event plays out, there could even be NFL starters signed after the draft concludes.  That is the type of draft that is truly a strong suit of the LA Rams. Despite the fact that recent draft classes have been less effective, much of that disconnect can be explained by the shift of coordinators and positional coaches.

But no matter how detailed the causal analysis might be, it does nothing to change the fact that the LA Rams need a strong 2023 rookie draft class to get back on track. The team has long found success in simply keeping the talent pipeline full of raw talent, but must now ensure that the talent is both durable and, in some cases, NFL-ready.

Restocking the LA Rams roster

Just to clarify, the LA Rams start the season, not with 53 players plus 16 practice squad players, but rather with a training camp roster of 90 players to work with, train, and evaluate for weeks before the need to pare the roster down comes.

Right now, after cleaning up the list currently reflected by Spotrac.com’s 2023 NFL Team Salary Cap Tracker, the LA Rams are shown as already having 50 players on their 2023 roster. That happened because the Rams roster has signed nine players from the team’s practice squad to Reserve/Future contacts, ensuring that they will be available for the team’s start of training camp. That could change if the team identifies and signs additional players to Reserve/Future contracts.

Better get another shopping cart

That means that the LA Rams need to identify 40 more players for the 2023 NFL season. How? Well, the fact is that you can expect about 10 players to (re-)sign with the team. That includes six Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA), RFA QB John Wolford, and the balance comprised of Rams’ free agency signings, or simply current players extended into the 2023 season and beyond.

But even at 60 players, and with ten draft picks projected, the LA Rams would be compelled to add 20 players to the roster after the 2023 NFL Draft. While it has happened before, the chance to select more robust talent seems far more tempting at this point in time. After all, the Rams are not exactly following their standard off-season track.

Reason IV: It’s more cost-effective

Even as the NFL Draft has prescribed salaries for where the rookies are selected in the draft process, there is far more value if an NFL team can hit on a late draft pick and coach that player up to an NFL starter, than there is if the same team drafts a player in round one and subsequently is able to get that player suited up to start.

How much of a cost difference is there? Well, after inspecting the projected NFA rookie salaries as per the table from Over The Cap.com, quite a bit. For example, if the LA Rams trade back from their first pick of the draft, the 37th overall pick, to a late second-round pick and perhaps a third or two fourth-round picks, the cost for that first selection could drop by as much as $600,000 or more.

Pinching pennies? More like millions

But what about the additional players picked in the draft? Well, that is inconsequential. All NFL teams will ultimately enter training camp with 90 players. For training camp, the NFL salary cap applies to only the Top-51 players.  Since the Rams have 50 such players on the roster now, and the likelihood of extending 10 more players, less expensive rookies are unlikely to even cross the threshold of that 51st player to even move the Rams’ salary cap needle.

Okay, so where do those rookie salaries make a huge impact? Well, the Detroit Lions, the team that controls the LA Rams’ first-round pick, is already on the hook for more than $5.4 million for that player, who has yet to play a single NFL snap. The Chicago Bears, the team currently projected to hold the first overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, is on the hook for over $7.375 million for that rookie.

Just for argument’s sake, the LA Rams’ first pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, IOL Logan Bruss, cost the team just $1.1 million in 2022. The aggregate effect of the LA Rams trading back multiple times could save the team hundreds of thousands of dollars, perhaps even millions.

Reason III: Mitigate inherent risks

The LA Rams can minimize those inherent risks associated with the NFL Draft process simply by multiplying the number of picks made in that draft.  Just ask anyone who routinely plays Bingo on a weekly basis, and they will tell you the secret: Play more Bingo cards if you want to win4. The NFL Draft is neither scientific nor exact. With more picks, the likelihood of landing a key contributor, or even a starter, increases.

A perfect example of that is the 2020 NFL Draft, a draft in which the LA Rams were hard-pressed to find a safety who could ultimately take over the starting role vacated by veteran John Johnson III the following year. To address the position, the LA Rams selected Utah’s hybrid CB/S Terrell Burgess with the 104th overall draft pick. But, just to be sure, the team addressed the safety position once more with the 199th overall pick, selecting Ohio State safety Jordan Fuller.|

The tale of 2020, Terrell Burgess and Jordan Fuller

Because the Rams’ second-year safety Taylor Rapp was injured in training camp, the defense held an open competition for the right to start opposite Johnson. Surprisingly, it was Fuller who won that competition and went on to start in the LA Rams secondary for DC Brandon Staley. Of course, Staley would jump ship the following season, leaving Fuller to try to lead the Rams’ defense in 2021.

Even such can’t-miss prospects who have excelled on one NFL team may not have the same success on a different team. Players are not commodities like sugar, salt, flour, or water. They may have a finite skillset, but how that rookie meshes with his teammates, his coaches, how well he plays in drills and training camp, what the team’s needs are, and even whether or not that rookie is given the opportunity to play all play a factor in whether or not the rookie is ultimately viewed as a success in the NFL.

Before the start of the 2022 NFL season, few if any fans believed in the NFL possibilities for much-maligned wide receiver Tutu Atwell. But after witnessing what he is capable of now that the Rams’ offense actually afforded him the chance to play, those cold shoulders are warming up to the guy.

Reason II: Carpet bomb the Rams roster with rookies

With the chances of fewer coach directives growing each day, the LA Rams front office is more and more likely to be interested in saturating the Rams roster with talented rookies. And the best way to do that is to saturate their roster with multiple drafted rookies to compete at key positions.

What do I mean? The Rams front office, just as every NFL team, creates draft portfolios to be read and discussed among personnel executives and the coaching staff. And the coaching staff is led in those discussions by the current head coach. But… whoops?!?  Who is the LA Rams’ current head coach? Even if you said Sean McVay, the fact that he needs to distance himself from the NFL and the Rams organization leaves a bit of a void in that lead role.

Let’s ‘Puff the Magic Dragon,’ that draft

Undoubtedly, the Rams organization has a contingency plan in place. After all, many NFL teams are preparing for the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft without a head coach or even an idea who will be on the coaching staff by the time the draft arrives. And those teams will make their selections right on schedule.

The LA Rams, like every NFL team, can only get so close to hitting their target. But which is more effective at the rifle range? A single shot of a .22 caliber? Or a shotgun blast? Even if you don’t know a single thing about projectiles and trajectories, almost everyone has seen enough Samuel Jackson action movies to know the answer to that one.

The LA Rams do not need to hit their intended target with every rookie selection. The Rams simply need to hit their positional targets with one rookie selection. So the more picks the Rams have, the more players are selected, and the chances of getting a starter or rotational contributor increase dramatically.

Reason I: Rams positioned to trade back

Because the LA Rams have a high vantage point with their four remaining allotted picks, the team is in an ideal position in each round to attract offers from other NFL teams to trade up for the Rams pick. Because the NFL Draft allows teams to regroup overnight after Round 1 and Round 3, that incentivizes other teams to trade up in the first round of the next day.

While the Rams do not possess a pick in Round 1, there is no doubt in my mind that their phones will be ringing off the hook after the end of Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft, with numerous teams trying to secure a contingency to trade up for the Rams Round 2 pick at 37th overall if a specific prospect falls to that spot.  Because this draft is so rich and ripe with talent, more than a half dozen or so players who possess a bonafide Day 1 draft grade could be on the board when the Rams are due to step up to the podium.

Rams do have a plan, only we don’t know what it is . . . yet

So why wouldn’t the LA Rams simply choose the best player available? Well, the team could certainly opt to do so, particularly if the perception is that a player on the board at that spot could be a true NFL starter for the Rams.

But we know that unless we are talking about a true surefire prospect (and I’m not convinced that they exist), the Rams may take the safer approach to multiply draft picks for later rounds. After all, the Rams’ current draft picks have two early picks that fall within the first 100 selections, but then do not make another selection until late in Round 5. Six of the team’s projected 10 picks occur in the last two rounds of the draft.

Strategically, the Rams may wish to have picks earlier on Day 3 and could be willing to trade back from the 37th or 70th overall pick to acquire one or more picks in Round 4. The LA Rams organization is very sophisticated in its disciplined approach to the NFL Draft, and this year will be no exception.