Why The Houston Texans Willingness To Trade Down Won’t Hurt St. Louis

 

The other day, we touched on why the Houston Texans’ willingness to trade the No.1 overall pick could “hurt” the St. Louis Rams on draft day. However, there are two sides to every argument, and we at Ramblin’ Fan like to hits stories from all the angles.

The first “negative” for St. Louis would be that some Teddy Bridgewater-hungry team would dump a load of picks to the Texans in order to jump the No. 2 spot. With Bridgewater off the board, or at least the perception that he can be attained, the Rams’ pick would be arguably be devalued. However, that is going under the assumption that St. Louis would be hunting Teddy Bridgewater-type money.

The reality of the situation is that the highly-touted University of Louisville signal caller was already likely to be off the board. Regardless of whether or not he is selected by the Houston Texans, the situation for the St. Louis Rams remains the same. Is there a prospect, likely either Clowney or another quarterback, that some team is not willing to take the risk of losing by waiting in their current position?

With this draft class, the answer is probably “yes.” At this point in the scouting process there is only one offensive tackle (Jake Matthews), one pass-rushing defensive lineman (Jadeveon Clowney), and two or three other quarterbacks (Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr) that appear to be worthy of a Top 5 selection. With arguably the top three most important individual positions in the NFL being so scarce at the top of the board, there will undoubtedly be someone clamoring for the No.2 overall pick.

Secondly, the “price” for the second pick in the Draft is significantly “less” than the return you would expect for the No.1 overall pick. So, for teams that are not willing to make an RGIII-type investment to move to the top spot in April may be more apt to settle for the Rams pick. Obviously, this will not change, regardless of whether or not there is a trade.

Thirdly, going under the assumption that someone has traded up to take Teddy Bridgewater, a Houston trade could start a feeding frenzy (or trade frenzy) in War Rooms around the league. Head coaches and general managers whose jobs could very well be linked to their quarterback’s play in the upcoming season could certainly cave into the pressure of the “shrinking” quarterback market. “Value” is all about supply and demand, and as the “supply” of franchise-worthy players decreases, the “demand” for those higher picks in the draft will increase. With Bridgewater off the board, teams in the mid- to late-Top 10 that are in dire need of a quarterback will likely have to re-assess their thoughts on moving up to “get their guy.” The millisecond Bridgewater is gone, the No.2 pick will be the most valuable asset in the NFL Draft.

Lastly, if the Houston Texans trade down, that only “adds” another teams that is in the market for one of the top quarterbacks in the Draft. Assuming Houston doesn’t move outside of the Top 10 with a trade (highly unlikely), there will still be just as many teams fighting for a Top 5 quarterback as there were before the trade. Moreover, if you are team now sitting behind the Texans, there is increased pressure knowing that you need to jump them in order to guarantee your selection, on top of the fact that there are now fewer “franchise” quarterbacks available.

If there is some trade at the top of the draft, it will eliminate one team that was willing to trade up. That will obviously not work in the St. Louis Rams favor. However, as we have seen over the last couple of years, movement in the draft has a tendency to spark more movement in the draft, like a massive game of “chess” between coaches and general managers from opposing organizations. With that said, the No.2 overall pick in the draft is still going to be the No.2 overall pick in the draft, and there is no doubt that Les Snead will be have plenty of teams to talk to on Draft Day.

That is the other side of the argument, which do you agree with?

Topics: St. Louis Rams

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  • Gary Stewart

    im on this side of the argument , was last week and many of your points here were mine including houstons just being a smoke screen here is another not mentioned lets say someone wants jadaveon clowney badly enough to jump all the way to #1 to get him. houston could take their bounty including say #5 or 6. because the most likely candidates for clowney, are oakland and atlant, a now houston still has teddy on the board they give up 5 or 6 and keep one of their bounty picks and give #5or 6 to the rams and throw in the rest of their picks. if the rams feel they can take 1-2 extra picks and still get the guy they want it could go down.!! also a trade for their #1 could be done early like ours was 2 years ago leaving time for the rams to negotiate with others before going on the clock with the caveat that the guy these others want is still there. GO RAMS!!

    • Nathan Kearns

      I think there are enough “blue chip” player to entice someone to move up in the draft. If Blake Bortles and/or Derek Carr and/or Johnny Manziel can work their way into the “top quarterback” conversation, the No.2 pick could end up being a gold mine…

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  • Zachery Klausman

    Nathan, I personally feel that this premature comment from the owner is just pure BS. He wants to have that massive trade but in reality Bill O’Brien would not have taken the Texans job without major control on that #1 pick. O’Brien and his HC career is based on who is under center he is known as a QB guru. I just really don’t see BOB(Bill O’Brien) passing on Teddy Bridgewater at #1 especially for any QB on the current Texans roster. Look for the Texans to take Teddy B with that #1 overall pick and then the Rams will trade out of the 2 spot for someone who wants their QB of choice.

    • Nathan Kearns

      Hard to disagree with any of those points.

      The only counter-point I might offer would be that O’Brien might not be that “high” on Teddy Bridgewater, and wouldn’t mind looking for someone later in the draft… or targeting Ryan Mallet, who he is obviously well connected to from his time in New England. If that were the case, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see a trade down…

      • Zachery Klausman

        That is also very true especially if he is comfortable with Mallet which I would assume Mallet wouldn’t cost him that much and they could actually keep that #1 pick and take Clowney or Barr and of course possibly trade down.

      • Gary Stewart

        let us not forget, that the team the texans may be trading with may want to jump to #1 but for say clowney, atl, oak, or tb come to mind in which case houston could feel comfortable trading down to #5-6 or #7 adding picks and then trade back up to #2 or 3 with jax or stl.

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