Why The St. Louis Rams Will Only Win Six Games in 2015

Before you dive into this article, take note that 6-10 is the “worst case scenario,” not best!!!

There is no questioning the talent level on the St. Louis Rams’ roster for the 2015 season. This may be the most talented team top to bottom in the past 10 years. But, with that said, the Rams will still continue to struggle to win games in the upcoming season.

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Lets take a look at the defense. Because as the saying goes, defense wins championships. The Rams, on paper, were average on defense a year ago. As much as people say their defense is elite, the stats say otherwise.

St. Louis was 14th in total rushing yards allowed and 19th in total passing yards allowed. But, regardless of those two stats, the most important defensive stat is points per game allowed. And in that category the Rams ranked 16th in the NFL, tied with the Denver Broncos with 22.1 PPG.

But, any true Rams’ fan knows that their defense was very much so “elite” in the last half of the season. The Rams’ defense posted two straight shutouts against the Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins. The Rams followed those games up by allowing just 12 points to the Arizona Cardinals before giving up 37 and 20 to the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks respectively.

In the last eight games of the 2014 season, the Rams’ defense allowed just 134 points. That is a mere 16.8 PPG over that course of the season. 16.8 would be good enough for second best in the NFL behind Seattle.

Arguably the Rams worst game defensively came in week one at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Adrian Peterson rushed for 75 yards while Cordarrelle Patterson rushed for 102 yards on just three carries. The Rams were also unable to sack then quarterback Matt Cassel.

The Rams have an elite defense in my opinion. Alec Ogletree, James Laurinaitis, Robert Quinn, Tj Mcdonald, Aaron Donald and EJ Gaines are all tremendous players. Any team in the NFL would love to have anyone of them.

But they are still an extremely young unit. As long as the Rams are able to keep all of their defensive pieces under contract, they will be a force in the NFL for the next decade.

Onto the offense. This is an offense that will have a completely new vibe to it in 2015.

New quarterback, check. New running back, check. New offensive lineman, check. New offensive coordinator, check.

The heart and soul to any offense starts and ends with the offensive line. The most overlooked, not talked about part of a team’s offense is the most important by far. Lets look at two ends of the spectrum when it comes to offensive lines in the NFL.

The Dallas Cowboys might have the best offensive line in the NFL. DeMarco Murray rushed for a league-high 1,845 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Tony Romo completed 304 of his 435 passes for 3,705 yards and 34 touchdowns. A 69.9 percent completion percentage is Romo’s best career percentage in his nine years in the NFL. Dallas’ number one ranked run blocking offensive line was the reason the Cowboy’s accomplished what they did in 2014.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Atlanta Falcons have had one of the worst offensive lines since blowing a 21-point lead in the NFC Championship to the San Francisco 49ers in 2012. Matt Ryan has been sacked 75 times in the past two seasons, and it isn’t for a lack of receiving weapons. When healthy, the Falcons have a top five NFL offense. Julio Jones, Roddy White, and then Harry Douglas achieved offensive numbers that not a lot of teams today can achieve. Many believed that with the addition of former Ram, Steven Jackson, the Falcons would finally reach the promise land and make it back to a Superbowl , but with no offensive line, that has not been possible. And growing up in Atlanta, It pains me to watch Ryan run for his life on almost every snap he takes.

So, where does this leave the Rams? With no quarterback, it doesn’t really matter how good your offensive line is, however, it is still an intricate part of the offense. The Rams’ 0-line ranked 18th in run blocking and 23rd in pass protection in 2014. The offensive line allowed 47 sacks, good enough for 8th most in the NFL. Unlike the Falcons, the Rams had no weapons in 2014. Kenny Britt is a solid wide receiver, but he is no Jones or White. And while rookie Tre Mason showed flashes of brilliance, he is no Murray.

With that being said, this made for a busy Rams off-season. The Rams traded away Sam Bradford to the Eagles for Nick Foles. Offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer bolted to UGA, (Thank you) and the Rams bolstered their offensive line with four rookie lineman in the 2015 NFL draft. If you’re reading this article, you may remember my slander of the Rams’ draft a few days ago. The main reasoning for my slander was for the position in which the players were picked. While I am not very high on their talent level, anything is better than what the Rams ran out of the field a year ago, so the offensive line should be better for the 2015 campaign.

The Rams finished at 6-10 a year ago, and with an improved team heading into 2015 many expect the Rams to make run towards the playoffs. Well, not so fast.

The Rams have the 6th toughest schedule in 2015. And after some examining, it doesn’t look good. The Rams may have the toughest start to the season out of any team in the NFL. St. Louis opens the season up at home against the Seattle Seahawks, and plays games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in the first five games of the season. Ouch.

The next four games will be crucial for the Rams. St. Louis then comes home after their bye week to play the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers before traveling on the road for a rematch with the Vikings. The Rams then play host to the Chicago Bears in week 10.

I project the Rams to start off with five losses after those nine games played. And it doesn’t get any easier the rest of the way. St. Louis then travels to Baltimore to take on the Ravens and then to Cincinnati to tangle with the Bengals.

And to top it all of, the Rams’ last five games will be just as tough as the first five. St. Louis will play host to the Detroit Lions, no easy win, the Cardinals, no easy win, and then finish off the regular season with two straight road games against the Seahawks and 49ers.

On paper this doesn’t bowed well for the Rams. They could very easily have a top five pick in the 2016 NFL draft but do have a decent shot at a wildcard spot. It pains me to say it, but this is setting up to be a terrible year for the St. Louis Rams, and might just cause the franchise to ship off to Los Angeles. Here is my projected win/loss for every game.

Week 1) Vs Seahawks — Loss (0-1)

week 2) @ Redskins — Win (1-1)

Week 3) Vs Steelers — Loss (1-2)

Week 4) @ Cardinals — Loss (1-3) —– Possible win

Week 5 @ Packers — Loss (1-4)

BYE

Week 7) Vs Browns — Win (2-4)

Week 8) Vs 49ers — Win (3-4)

Week 9) @ Vikings — Loss (3-5) —— Possible win

Week 10) Vs Bears — Win (4-5)

Week 11) @ Ravens — Loss (4-6)

Week 12) @ Bengals — Loss (4-7) ——- Possible win

Week 13) Vs Cards — Win (5-7)

Week 14) Vs Lions — Loss (5-8)

Week 15 Vs Bucs — Win (6-8)

Week 16 @ Hawks — Loss (6-9)

Week 17 @ 49ers — Loss (6-10) ——- Possible win

The Rams will face off against seven of the 12 playoff teams from a year ago. SEVEN. None of which have gotten any worse either. The Seahawks’ offense just jumped up from good to great with the addition of Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett. The Cardinals will have their starting quarterback back in Carson Palmer and bolstering their offensive line with Mike Iupati and first round draft pick D.J. Humphries. The Cardinals also added linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and defensive Tackle Corey Peters who will both see a lot of playing time.

My point being, while the Rams continue to improve their roster, so have their 2015 opponents. Nobody has gotten drastically worse except for the 49ers. I project the 49ers to win 5-6 games as well. Colin Kaepernick no longer has a mentor in John Harbaugh and their defensive centerpieces are slowly crumbling. Both games against the 49ers will be close, but the Rams haven’t swept the 49ers in a season series since 2004.

Week nine on the road against the Vikings will be a very tough game to win. With Teddy Bridgewater continuing to improve and with the return of Peterson, this game will be a back and forth affair. Week 15 against the Buccaneers will also be a tough game for the Rams. Who knows how good Jameis Winston will be in his rookie year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Tampa has a winning record by the time they travel to play the Rams. If I had to add three more wins to the Rams’ win column, I’d give them the nod in the Vikings game as well as one Cardinals and one 49ers game, giving them an 8-8 record.

It’s not a question of the Rams’ defense, but whether or not the offensive line can keep Foles upright, because like it or not, Gurley can’t and won’t do it all. Can Foles and Gurley lead the Rams to the playoffs in 2015? I don’t think so.

This doesn’t mean I won’t root for the Rams as much as the next guy. The Rams are young. They are in the beginning stages of becoming what I think will be a top five NFL team for years to come. But, they aren’t quite there, and this ridiculously hard schedule isn’t helping matters. Put the Rams in the NFC South and they win 13 games in 2015 without a doubt in my mind. But, playing in the NFC West all but guarantees you of losing at least three games in the division alone. And when you play five other playoff teams from a year ago on top of that, odds are you will lose at least three of those games as well. That runs your total to six losses right off the bat.

Poll: Can the Rams sweep the Seahawks in 2015? No.

Poll: Can the Rams sweep the 49ers in 2015? Yes.

Poll: Can the Rams sweep the Cardinals in 2015? Highly unlikely but its possible.

For the Rams to make a run at a wildcard position, St. Louis must split with Seattle, sweep the 49ers and sweep the Cardinals. That still leaves extremely tough games against the Steelers, @ Packers, @ Ravens, @ Bengals and home against the Lions. Out of those five games I could see the Rams winning two of them. They will not beat the Packers at Lambeau and most likely will not win on the road in Baltimore. The Steelers and Lions matchup’s are very intriguing since they are played at home, but will still be very tough to win.

6-10 is a “worse case scenario.” I could see the Rams winning 10 games but it will take a 5-1 record in the NFC West to do so. I’ll go out on a limb and say best case scenario is 10-6. It’s going to come down to their division play.

Feel free to call me whatever you want. I wouldn’t blame you in the least bit. Rams’ fans deserve a great team to watch as much as any fan base in the NFL. And its coming. The main point of this article is this. Don’t get your hopes up for 2015. There are still several answers that need answering heading into 2015. The Seahawks didn’t take it all the way right off the bat, so don’t expect the Rams to do so either.

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