Los Angeles Rams: Growth pattern of the modern NFL team

As the Los Angeles Rams begin camp, some old adages may continue to haunt them.

Los Angeles Rams fans know the score, or as Bill Parcels would say, “You are what your record says you are.” 

Parcels made the phrase famous. We judge our favorite teams by the wins and the losses.

But I think it goes deeper than this. Like a human who goes through the stages of development and maturity or a business that goes through predictable patterns of growth, NFL teams also have stages of growth. So, if you’ll indulge me, here is my way of grouping and understanding the talent level of different types of teams.

Betsided

Bottom Feeder: Perennial loser

Most of us have had to cheer for a bottom feeder at some time or another. It is the team that can hardly be thought of as being competitive in any games. Fans of teams like this are forced—if they remain fans of their team instead of bailing—to become a fan of the NFL Draft, as their team will be drafting near the top. The talk from teams like this is “turning the ship around” and “changing the culture.” Think of the 2008 Lions who went 0-16 (the first team ever to do so) and in only five games did the final score have them a touchdown away from victory. Or, Rams fans, consider the 2009 team, who at 1-15, found their only win against that Lions team who was coming off the worst season ever. (The Rams beat them 17-10.)

A more recent example of this sort of team is the 2016 Cleveland Browns, who also went 1-15. However, the Browns are the punch lines of all sorts of jokes this time of year as they drafted first overall again, they took two playoff teams to overtime (Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers) and beat the San Diego Chargers in a bad year. A bottom feeder, yes, but they were not as historically bad as some commentators joked.

Growth/Regression Squad: Below .500

The next level is the team who is either on the way up (growth: a young team looking for maturity) or on the way down (regression: an older team looking to hang on to former glory).   Teams like this are not in anyone’s post-season plans. For growth squads, they are hoping their youngsters get experience and take steps forward. They may have a new coach who is trying to build a contender (i.e. Sean McVay and Los Angeles). The regression squad, on the other hand, is depressed. The coach is likely on the hot seat. They may have an aging franchise quarterback that fans or the front office may want to move on from. The other thing about a growth/regression squad is that occasionally, once or twice a year, they can “put it all together” and beat a really good team. I think of the Rams teams of the last few years who would beat the Seattle Seahawks, but lose to the San Francisco 49ers.

League Average: .500, give or take

This tier of team gives you exactly what you expect. They beat who they should and lose to who they should. In an easy schedule year, this team may post a 10-6 record. In a down year, they could be 6-10. You never know how the schedule will fall, but you do know your team is not going far.  They may be a move or two away from getting over the edge. They may also be in quarterback purgatory: good enough to go .500 and be out of contention for the top quarterback’s in the draft, but not good enough to get over the hump.  (I see you Sam Bradford and Nick Foles).

Fringe Playoff Team

This next category is the team that is right on the edge of serious NFL relevance. They may win a Wild Card and play a great team in the first round. They may even win a bad division and host a playoff game. But let’s be honest, no one picks this team to win the Super Bowl. Think of the Houston Texans or Kansas City Chiefs of the last few years as perfect examples of the “Fringe Playoff Team.” Similar to the growth squad who can put it all together, the fringe playoff team is likely to lay an egg to an inferior team at some point. The fans of these squads are looking for that one missing element to get the over the top for good.

Serious Contender

We have reached the penultimate category. The serious contender has a shot. This year. To win it all. Can you taste the hope? This is the Green Bay Packers. The Pittsburgh Steelers. This team likely has a mainstay head coach and a franchise quarterback. The coordinators probably have left for other jobs, but that doesn’t phase the serious contender. These guys play for keeps. Being a fan of a contender is pretty great, but consider this–they have to deal with some pretty heartbreaking playoff losses. Look at the way the Packers and Steelers seasons have ended the last few years. Being a fan of a contender is great, but it’s not without its lumps.

Next: NFL Power Rankings: Rams edition

Dynasty: Multi-year Super Bowl winner

Lastly, we have the dynasty. This is what teams and fans lives for: the chance to build a multi-year Super Bowl winner. To be this good you have to be great, you have to be lucky, and, if you’re Bill Belichick, you gotta cheat a little bit. Think the Steelers in the 70’s, the 49ers in the 80’s, and, yes, sadly, the New England Patriots as of late. These can be some of the most demanding fans, of course, because they expect a Super Bowl win every year.