5 reasons LA Rams 2020 NFL Draft strategy = Quantity over quality

Reason two : Filling offensive line depth

Of course, the LA Rams draft strategy will not be about trading everything back to the seventh round. But let’s focus on the scenario where the LA Rams trade back with that round two pick.  In our first mock draft, we proposed drafting either OT Ben Bartch from St. Johns, or tight end Cole Kmet from Notre Dame.  Per the draft success by round article, Bartch has a 70 percent chance of starting, Kmet just a 50 percent chance (tight ends rank differently).  So the Rams simply decide to trade back to round three.

If they find a willing trade partner who has an abundant supply of third round picks, the Rams could agree to swap their 360 value in round two for a 200 (pick 78) and 160 value (pick 86). Now armed with two third round picks, the odds break down the following way:

Two starters – 16 percent
One starter –    48 percent
Zero starters – 36 percent

But let’s look at the same scenario, but in this scenario, the Rams trade for three late third round picks – 170 (pick 84), 100 (pick 100), 92 (pick 102).  Now we have a new probability table:

Three starters –           6.4 percent
At least one starter – 72 percent
Zero starters –             21.6 percent

So by trading down to grab three picks in round three, the Rams not only increase their chances of finding a starter, but they lower their chances of coming away empty altogether.  Plus there is the added bonus of finding multiple starters.  See where we are going with this?