How does the Goff-Stafford trade affect the LA Rams salary cap?

The LA Rams, like most NFL teams, will be tweaking contracts more often this offseason than usual. That is due to the fact that the 2021 NFL Salary cap did not rise as it has done for many consecutive years running. Rather, it’s taken a significant dip.  With no firm estimation of what the 2021 NFL Salary cap will be, both Over the Cap.com and Spotrac.com have estimated this year’s salary cap to come in at approximately $181 million.  That places the LA Rams at an estimated overage of some $30 million.

Of course, that was before the LA Rams and Detroit Lions rolled up their sleeves and hammered out a trade to send QB Jared Goff to the Lions and QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams. While that will certainly impact the salary cap status of both teams, the big question now is: By how much?

Well, the answer is complex, so let’s break it down into three pieces. In any exchange of NFL players, the finances will be affected by three categories: Dead money (that remains with the original team), Transferred salary (the compensation that follows the player to the new team), and the Acquired salary (the compensation that arrives along with the new player).

So let’s break up the pieces in a tabular format to make it easier to discuss, shall we? All figures for Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff are per Over the Cap.com.
QB             Dead Money     2021 Xferred    2022 Xferred   2023 Xferr 2024 Xferred
Stafford   $19 million        $20 million        $23 million
Goff           $22.2 mill          $28.15 mill        $26.15 mill      $25.65 mill  $26,650.064

Okay, now we can look at this and make sense out of it.  For the Detroit Lions, moving Stafford increases their projected 2021 salary cap hit at quarterback from  $33 million to the combination of Stafford’s dead money of $19 million,  plus Goff’s transferred salary of $28.15 million, or ballooning up to  $47.15 million, an increase in 2021 of $14.15 million for the Detroit Lions

The same effect is true for the LA Rams, who must realize an increase from Goff’s $34.95 million to a combination of Goff’s dead money at $22.2 million, plus Stafford’s transferred salary of $20 million to balloon up to $42.2 million, or an increase in 2021 of some $7.25 million for the LA Rams.

So why do it at all? The Detroit Lions get much younger and get a quarterback for the next four years. The LA Rams get more experienced and shave two years off their quarterback contract. So what does it look like?  Well, for the two teams, it translates this way:

Team                            2021                 2022            2023                      2024 
Detroit LIons          +$14.5 M          +$0.5M      +$22.65M       +$26,650.064
LA Rams                  +$ 7.25M          ($9.5M)      ($32.45M)        ($28,450,064)

The trade forces both the Lions and Rams to expense all signing bonuses paid out in the 2021 salary cap year. After that? It’s merely the difference between what was to be their cap hit and what will be with their new quarterback.

But before anyone runs off half-cocked at the savings or added costs, keep in mind that the LA Rams lose two years off their previous quarterback situation, and the Lions pick up two additional years. That means that the Lions won’t be drafting a quarterback until 2025, while the Rams will be looking to extend Stafford before 2023.

The Lions have a bona fide winner at quarterback who is six years younger than Stafford.  Do not be surprised if Jared Goff performs very well for the Lions, well enough to cement the starting quarterback role. For the Rams? They will be shopping for a quarterback in 2023 if they do not extend Stafford. And oops! They will not even have a first-round pick in that year’s draft to do so.