So what if LA Rams deal siphons off more first-round picks?

I’m alright, Nobody worry ’bout me

Of course, how has that worked out for the Rams? Well, they have been 11-5, 13-3, 9-7, and 10-6 with no first-round picks. Not bad, eh? So the presumption that the LA Rams need to draft in the first round to succeed seems to be, less correct? Well, the wins and losses seem to indicate something is amiss.

How can that be?

Well, what do we ‘know’ about the NFL Draft?  It’s a selection prospect where NFL teams systematically choose prospects in a defined order.  The belief is that the number one pick is a sure thing. A sure bet. In fact, the first 32 picks in the NFL draft are believed to have the best odds of becoming an NFL Pro-Bowler in their career.

Some do. Some take time. Some never do.

Perhaps the LA Rams have discovered a flaw in the formula of the NFL Draft.  The presumption is that a prospect who is selected in the first round will excel in the NFL. That’s not exactly true.  They may have the best odds, but that is a far cry from a sure thing. Of the first-round rookies chosen, how long does it take them to succeed in the NFL? Is it one of two? One of three? One of four?