LA Rams deal their draft picks from the bottom of the deck

The LA Rams have been shamed by some NFL sports analysts for trading away two more years’ worth of first-round picks. And to many traditional thinkers of NFL strategy, the allotment of each new season’s cache of draft picks are for that team and that team alone.  They are tradeable, yes. But the thought of changing lanes with draft picks is a horrifying thought. Stay in your lanes, they urge.

And for teams that trade a package of draft picks to move up in the NFL Draft, the results are mixed. Sometimes the player chosen delivers, and sometimes not. And so, the very nature of the NFL Draft and the picks from the annual draft process are themselves infused with risks.

Successful NFL general managers learn tricks to mitigate those risks. They invest huge sums of money into data analytics to point their personnel department towards the most promising NFL prospects. They invest huge resources into hiring, developing, and promoting scout and analysts into executives.  And they wager.

Yes, that’s right. Each decision to draft, trade for a player, or trade for another draft pick is a gamble. Some like to play the draft. The LA Rams have found a trick of dealing picks for veteran players. That seems to upset some NFL analysts.

But it’s okay. It’s a matter of minimizing the risks. The LA Rams simply have chosen another avenue of roster building that few other NFL teams are attempting.  But is it a safer path?

What are the odds?

To answer that, we need to examine a whiteboard that is used to encourage football players to achieve their full college education. Why? The odds of their ‘making it’ is identical to the odds of NFL teams succeeding with their draft picks.

The warning to high school and college football students is clear. Only 6.5 percent of high school football players make it to NCAA football programs. Only 1.5 percent of that group make it to the NFL. Of the ones who make it, only half of those players actually play out their entire four-year rookie contract. That means that the odds of selecting a player in the NFL Draft who remains in the NFL for four years is just as unlikely. And the Rams are more than happy to transfer the chance of missing on a pick to their trading partner.

If Stafford works out, the Rams have gotten their starter for the foreseeable future. If Stafford does not work out, the Rams succeeded in trading for a quarterback that half of the NFL coveted to some degree.  Yes, the LA Rams take chances. And that’s what is so terrifying to many analysts. They are so terrified of falling off the edge, that they panic and urge everyone to stay at a safe distance from it.

But the life of a gambler embraces the losses that come along. It just means that they are one step closer to a big win.