LA Rams disproving fallacy of NFL Draft first-round picks

The LA Rams treat the value of their first-round draft picks just like the girl in the Beatles song Ticket to Ride. Only, instead of the fact that she’s got a ticket to ride, the LA Rams don’t have a first-round pick. But the outcome is the exact same. They don’t care.

And no, it’s not reckless and irresponsible to go without a first-round pick since 2016.  Picks are to be used to replenish the talent on the NFL roster. The LA Rams simply… choose to replenish that talent in an unorthodox manner. The Rams do things a bit differently. That makes some analysts, nervous. It makes other NFL analysts, angry. But why?

NFL teams follow a pattern of herding.  What do I mean? Simply stated, it’s the practice of acting like others so as not to stand out. Think of a herd of antelope. As long as the antelope run together as one large herd, predators risk being trampled to death. So predators attack a singular animal to pull it away from the safety of numbers. Then, the antelope can be taken down rather easily.

Stay in your lane

NFL general managers operate the same way. By acting within the parameters of other team executives, they can retain employment by clinging to a set of unspoken norms. Yes, the LA Rams do things very differently than other teams. But with a 43-21 record over the past four years, where’s the problem?

There are no absolute truths where the NFL Draft is involved. The Rams have simply accepted that fact, and run with it to the point where it makes some people nervous, or even angry.

NFL teams must overcome two disadvantages in this draft, as in every draft.

First, NFL teams, and their personnel departments, must acknowledge that the draft is nothing better than an educated guess. By doing so, the draft becomes an imperfect transaction. That means that the consensus number one pick of the draft may still fail in the NFL. So what chance do any of the prospects chosen after number one have to succeed? That’s why it’s just as important to assess fit, maturity, coaching, and a host of other factors. And prepare to be wrong.

Trade for a rookie or a veteran?

Secondly, NFL teams value different positions and different players differently. In the 2021 NFL Draft, as many as six quarterbacks could be chosen in round one. Some teams (like the rival San Francisco 49ers) have traded a lot of valuable draft assets to position themselves to choose one of the top quarterbacks in this draft. But will that quarterback be a top quarterback?

Be careful how you answer that. Trading so high for the second or third quarterback in any NFL draft has not turned out well. Instead, the LA Rams opted to trade for a tried and true accomplished NFL veteran quarterback, not a prospect that comes with the “I hope this one pans out” disclaimer.

Consider the NFL transactions like a game show. The choice is that you can either trade for the envelope with at least $5,000 in it, or trade for what’s behind the curtain, which could be a prize package of either $500 up to $10,000?  The Rams are less of a gambler than people believe. In fact, the Rams take the safe road by opting for the sure-thing veteran.

Yes, the LA Rams are disproving the fallacy of how important NFL Draft first-round picks are. And they continue to do it, one draft at a time.