Yes, LA Rams WR Van Jefferson can put up 1K yards in 2021

The LA Rams were hoping for three receivers to best a thousand yards receiving a year ago. That was the pre-season claim of then quarterback Jared Goff, and the trio of receivers then was Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and tight end Tyler Higbee. Even as the season opened, the Rams started out hot as both Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods were on track for the milestone. But the team didn’t seem to have a third receiver in the running.

Of course, you can check the 2020 NFL statistics to see how that all turned out. Of course, our crystal ball was no better, as we saw 1000 yard potential in rookie wide receiver Van Jefferson. Looks like everyone was lining up for eggs on their face. Such is the life on the edge.

Still, we’re ready to give it another go. Double-or-nothing as it were. It wasn’t the lack of talent in the rookie wide receiver out of Florida. It was simpler than that. It came down to a lack of targets. To illustrate, we’ll need to do a quick & dirty math exercise.  Here’s how this will go down.  Robert Woods was targeted 129 times in 2020.

More targets = more production

So give Jefferson those targets (129) and then multiply by his completion rate (61.3 percent of the time) for 79 completions. Now multiply that by Jeffersons average yards-per-completion (11.6 YPC) and you get 917 yards. Of course, no LA Rams receiver broke the 1000 yard barrier in 2020.  To break that milestone, Jefferson would need 87 completions, or to be targetted 142 times. That is simply not going to happen in this Rams offense.

So the trick will be to improve his catch rate over his targets. If he improves to a 65 percent completion rate? That number falls to 128 targets. If he can improve his catch rate to 70 percent? Now that number falls to 119 targets, and that is definitely doable. Of course. another way to lessen the burden on 1000 yards receiving is to increase the yards per catch. At 15 yards per catch and a 65 percent completion rate, Jefferson needs to be targeted 103 times.

Of course, this is all bar talk unless the LA Rams throw at Jefferson.  That’s on HC Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford. But it’s also on second-year receiver Van Jefferson.  And what about working with new quarterback Matthew Stafford?

"‘I’m very excited to work with Matt. He’s a great quarterback and someone I have been watching for a while. I know he is a guy who is going to lay it all on the line for his team. He plays through injuries just to make sure he is out there for his team. I can’t wait to get started.’ – LA Rams wide receiver Van Jefferson per Sarina Morales on therams.com"

We’re excited to see him work with Matthew Stafford as well.

In the end, we really can’t say for sure what the LA Rams have in second-year receiver Van Jefferson.  We do know that in the playoffs, he was six of seven passes for 46 yards, one touchdown, and three first downs. That all happened against the Green Bay Packers. So yes, he deserves a better portion of targets in 2021. After all, that’s the first step to getting a thousand-yard season.