When are the LA Rams most likely to trade back?

Okay, so the consensus is that the LA Rams will likely trade at some point during the NFL Draft. Now the only question is, from which pick? After all, the supply of picks does not currently equal the demand for additional players at key positions on the team. So the Rams are left with the most basic of challenges. How do they stretch their six picks to cover eight or nine positional needs?

As a child of a larger family, I know how my parents did it. When handing out allowances (that weekly amount that the children were given to learn about the value of money for doing their household duties), my parents broke a dollar. The more children it was shared with, the less each of my brothers and sister were given individually. So the LA Rams will be playing the “Are there any NFL teams that can break a pick (insert number here) for us?” game on day two.  Of course, the higher the pick, the more value. So the trade would equate to picks of higher value in return.

Let’s take a look at the 2021 NFL Trade value chart by drafttek.com.   The Rams have the following picks and we will supply their corresponding values.

Round two
Pick 57 – 330
Round three
Pick 88 – 150
Pick 103 – 88
Round four
Pick 141 -35.5
Round six
Pick 209- 6.2
Round seven
Pick 252- 1.0

If you examine what the values are of each of the Rams picks, that value corresponds to approximate two picks of the next round.  So the Rams pick 57 is approximately worth two third-round picks, one third and two fourth-round picks, or even a later second and a fourth-round pick.

The problem with trading back from the second round is losing the opportunity to add an impact player to the roster. More likely the Rams will answer calls to trade back from the 103rd pick of the 2021 draft for several reasons. First, the Rams will have two players added to their roster and will feel much less vulnerable about trading back. Second, the drop-off after pick 103 is not nearly as dramatic as dropping from 57 to the next tier.

But most of all, the fact that pick 103 falls just before the end of the day triggers a sense of urgency into teams who want to trade up. That oftentimes means a much better trade package offered to the Rams to trade back. Look for the Rams to trade back on day two. But focus on the 103rd pick of the 2021 NFL Draft as the most likely spot to do so.

Who knows? The Rams could pick up another fourth and a pair of fifth-round picks by doing so.