Will Rams receivers continue to put up similar YAC numbers in 2021?

As we weigh the plusses and minuses of the 2021 LA Rams offense, there are still some bugs to work out.  We know that the LA Rams offense will feature the passing game. We know the plusses and minuses of comparing quarterback Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff.  And recently, we’ve begun to explore, in a discussion format, what that will mean to the LA Rams veteran receivers.

One of the first questions that come to mind is this evolution of the Rams offense. In short, it’s not as though the Rams offense simply swaps out Goff and swaps in Stafford, and away we go, is it?  Goff has his strengths and tendencies. Stafford has his strengths and tendencies.

One of the tendencies that may change in 2021 is the LA Rams receivers to create yards after the catch. How so? Well, we know that former Rams quarterback Jared Goff did not force the ball into tight coverage, nor did he always manage to read the open receiver in progressions with heavy quarterback pressure. So for the completions that he managed, the receiver was oftentimes quite open.  More separation is oftentimes a key contributor to good yards after the catch. and both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are considered masters at picking up yards after the catch.

Stafford likely changes some things

Enter new LA Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, stage right. He throws into tighter coverages, processes his progressions through the entire football field, and does not hesitate to hurl the football deep downfield. All of those characteristics will dilute the impact of Yards After the Catch, and here is how.

First of all, Stafford throws into tighter windows. Whether or not the Rams receivers can adapt to contest catches, one thing is certain. When the ball arrives, the tacklers are within reach. And so, the days of a free 10 yards until the defensive backs can close the 3-5 yards on a Rams open receiver are no more.

Secondly, Stafford reads all of the progressions. And let’s face it, McVay loves to flood the secondary with eligibles. While Goff would throw to the first open receiver on many occasions, Stafford will forego a sure-fire eight-yard route to take a 70 percent chance of completing an 18-yard route downfield.  He did it in Detroit. LA Rams head coach Sean McVay will love that about him here.

Dropping the bomb

Finally, Stafford will air it out. Why will that matter? Well, think of it this way. Even if the actual yards after the catch don’t go down, but the yards in the air do increase, then a higher portion of the receiving yards by season’s end will be on the quarterback’s are and not on the receiver’s legs. If Goff threw seven yards that gets an additional seven yards, that is a 50/50 receiving yards. But in that same scenario, if Stafford throws the ball 21 yards that gets an additional seven yards after the catch, that then becomes a 75/25 distribution of yards-in-the-air and yards-after-the-catch.

Of course, to the fanbase, receiving yards are receiving yards. Who will really care how they pile up? Well, it will most certainly please Coach McVay. And if Matthew Stafford has a reasonable chance to put up 5,000 yards in 17 games this year, these are the types of changes to the Rams passing game that will need to occur.

While the LA Rams will likely redshirt many of the rookie offensive weapons, both Jacob Harris and Ben Skowronek had draft profiles that noted that they succeeded at contested catches. The Rams offense is beginning to transform. Yards after the catch will likely be one of the first, but not only, places that you will notice the difference