LA Rams: Matthew Stafford, zip, injuries, birds and QBees

Expect the unexpected

The sudden injury to RB Cam Akers reinforced the fact that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. That means that the LA Rams will need contingency plans in place just in case the unthinkable happens. That worst-case scenario is some unforeseen injury to veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. Others say that the worst-case scenario is some unforeseen injury to veteran defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Between the two, Stafford seems the more vulnerable of the two.

Los Angeles Rams

Now don’t go citing me as some sort of jinxing protagonist just by mentioning the unthinkable. This is not Middle Earth, and I have not just said the words aloud of the “One who shall remain unnamed” (Sauron to speed things along here)

I’m simply talking about the typical practice of signing reserve players to the roster. Yes, I know that the Rams have added a camp body throwing arm in Delvin “Duck” Hodges to go with last year’s practice squad arm of Bryce Perkins and backup John Wolford.

But the same mindset was used in 2020, and as soon as the LA Rams incurred an injury to quarterback Jared Goff, the team scrambled to re-sign Blake Bortles back to the team. It’s one thing to sit upon a healthy 90-man roster and proclaim ‘Oh yeah, we’re good’ when the topic of roster depth comes up. That all falls into the realm of actuarial analysis.  Insurance companies, legal representation, and finance departments use rules of actuarial analysis to quantify and dollarize risks.

Creating a certainty over an uncertain risk is always an estimation, and estimations are frequently wrong. In the estimation of injury, it’s a matter of splitting the difference. Either injury occurs, or it does not. The LA Rams, by carrying just Jared Goff and John Wolford on the active roster in 2020, estimated that Jared Goff would not be injured. Estimations are frequently wrong