The odd history of the LA Rams as odds-on favorites for Week 6

Sometimes patterns form right under our noses, but due to life’s incessant distractions, we seldom stop or even take a pause to notice.  It’s that way in our lives, a circus performance of spinning plates as it were. We place a plate on the top of a pole and spin violently until it reaches equilibrium. Then we continue on to the next plate and the next one.

Pretty soon we have an entire life filled with spinning plates to the loud applause of an audience. But we are so mesmerized by the task of ensuring each plate is spinning that we fail to take a bow.

Life is funny like that.

So too can we find patterns in the way the LA Rams respond to certain outside forces?  Only if we take notice. Road games vs. home games. Primetime games versus 9:00 am PT games versus 1:00 pm PT games. Each event is a data point. Combine data points and you have trend analysis.

The LA Rams have plenty of patterns. Like, how does the team perform when they are heavily favored in games?  Let’s pick a point spread of 8.0 points and then examine the Rams history:

2020 Week 1 Point Spread (Rams 20 Cowboys 17)

• Cowboys -2.5
• Rams +2.5

2020 Week 2 Point Spread (Rams 37 Eagles 19)

• Rams +3.5
• Eagles -3.5

2020 Week 3 Point Spread (Bills 35 Rams 32)

• Rams +3.0
• Bills -3.0

2020 Week 4 Point Spread (Rams 17 Giants 9)

• Giants +9.0
• Rams -9.0

2020 Week 5 Point Spread (Rams 30 Washington 10)

• Washington +9.5
• Rams -9.5

2020 Week 6 Point Spread (49ers 24 Rams 16)

• Rams +3.0
• 49ers -3.0

2020 Week 7 Point Spread (Rams 24 Bears 10)

• Bears +7.0
• Rams -7.0

2020 Week 8 Point Spread (Dolphins 28 Rams 17)

• Rams -3.5
• Dolphins +3.5

2020 Week 10 Point Spread (Rams 23 Seahawks 16)

• Seahawks +2.0
• Rams -2.0

2020 Week 11 Point Spread (Rams 27, Buccaneers 24)

• Rams +3.5
• Buccaneers -3.5

2020 Week 12 Point Spread (49ers 23 Rams 20

• 49ers +7.0
• Rams -7.0

2020 Week 13 Point Spread (Rams 38 Cardinals 28)

• Rams +1.0
• Cardinals -1.0

2020 Week 14 Point Spread (Rams 24 Patriots 3)

• Patriots +6.5
• Rams -6.5

2020 Week 15 Point Spread (Jets 23 Rams 20)

• Jets +16.5
• Rams -16.5

2020 Week 16 Point Spread (Seahawks 20 Rams 9)

• Rams +2.0
• Seahawks -2.0

2020 Week 17 Point Spread (Rams 18 Cardinals 7)

• Rams +1.0
• Cardinals -1.0

2021 Week 1 Point Spread (Rams 34 Bears 14)

• Bears +7.5
• Rams -7.5

2021 Week 2 Point Spread (Rams 27 Colts 24)

• Rams -4.5
• Colts +4.5

2021 Week 3 Point Spread (Rams 34 Buccaneers 24

• Buccaneers -1.0
• Rams +1.0

2021 Week 4 Point Spread (Cardinals 37 Rams 20)

• Cardinals +5.0
• Rams -5.0

2021 Week 5 Point Spread (Rams 26 Seahawks 17)

• Rams -1.0
• Seahawks +1.0

2021 Week 6 Point Spread

• Rams -11.0
• Giants +11.0

Over the course of the past two seasons, the Rams have been favored by eight points or more four times. On one occasion, the Rams covered the spread. On another occasion, against these very same New York Giants that the Rams face in Week 6, the Rams won the game but failed to cover the spread. On the third occasion, the Rams lost the game outright.

The Rams’ odds have since dropped to -10.0 since they opened as 11.0-point favorites. Is it low enough? While everything inside of me can rationalize a good reason to take the Rams and give away the points, it’s just not going to happen this week.

There is just this odd history of the LA Rams whenever they are lopsided odds-on favorites, and it’s just not something I am willing to take a chance on until the team proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can defeat opponents in games that they are favored to win.

Our recommendations:
Take the Under at 48.5 points (-110) (revised)
Take the Rams on the Moneyline (-500) to win outright (revised)

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