Why the LA Rams cannot overlook the Houston Texans

The LA Rams are heavily favored to win their Week 8 contest against the Houston Texans. While you may be very confident in the Rams’ ability to take care of business, the history of the team over the past two seasons may not be what you would expect of a very good team. Well, at least when they appear to outclass their opponent.

Yes, the LA Rams are a very good team, and a 6-1 record is proof in the pudding that they have found a way to string together victories three at a time. But sustaining that level of intensity is not an easy matter, and the NFL has a way of proving each and every week that an underdog can upset a heavily favored team on any given Sunday.

2021 Odds are courtesy of WynnBET (but are subject to change quickly)

You need to look no further than the Week 7 contest with the Detroit Lions where the Rams were heavily favored (-15.5) fell behind by a score of 10-0 before roaring back for a 28-19 victory.  That’s the way the team seems to roll. And once more, the Rams are heavily favored heading into Week 8 (-14.5). In a word? Beware.

Okay, am I being too cautious? Let’s look at the history of the Rams’ performance compared to the odds, shall we?

2020 NFL Season

Game        Odds                         Result
2020 Week 1 Point Spread (Rams 20 Cowboys 17)

• Cowboys -2.5
• Rams +2.5

2020 Week 2 Point Spread (Rams 37 Eagles 19)

• Rams +3.5
• Eagles -3.5

2020 Week 3 Point Spread (Bills 35 Rams 32)

• Rams +3.0
• Bills -3.0

2020 Week 4 Point Spread (Rams 17 Giants 9)

• Giants +9.0
• Rams -9.0

2020 Week 5 Point Spread (Rams 30 Washington 10)

• Washington +9.5
• Rams -9.5

2020 Week 6 Point Spread (49ers 24 Rams 16)

• Rams +3.0
• 49ers -3.0

2020 Week 7 Point Spread (Rams 24 Bears 10)

• Bears +7.0
• Rams -7.0

2020 Week 8 Point Spread (Dolphins 28 Rams 17)

• Rams -3.5
• Dolphins +3.5

2020 Week 10 Point Spread (Rams 23 Seahawks 16)

• Seahawks +2.0
• Rams -2.0

2020 Week 11 Point Spread (Rams 27, Buccaneers 24)

• Rams +3.5
• Buccaneers -3.5

2020 Week 12 Point Spread (49ers 23 Rams 20

• 49ers +7.0
• Rams -7.0

2020 Week 13 Point Spread (Rams 38 Cardinals 28)

• Rams +1.0
• Cardinals -1.0

2020 Week 14 Point Spread (Rams 24 Patriots 3)

• Patriots +6.5
• Rams -6.5

2020 Week 15 Point Spread (Jets 23 Rams 20)

• Jets +16.5
• Rams -16.5

2020 Week 16 Point Spread (Seahawks 20 Rams 9)

• Rams +2.0
• Seahawks -2.0

2020 Week 17 Point Spread (Rams 18 Cardinals 7)

• Rams +1.0
• Cardinals -1.0

2021 NFL Season

Game Odds Result
2021 Week 1 Point Spread (Rams 34 Bears 14)

• Bears +7.5
• Rams -7.5

2021 Week 2 Point Spread (Rams 27 Colts 24)

• Rams -4.5
• Colts +4.5

2021 Week 3 Point Spread (Rams 34 Buccaneers 24

• Buccaneers -1.0
• Rams +1.0

2021 Week 4 Point Spread (Cardinals 37 Rams 20)

• Cardinals +5.0
• Rams -5.0

2021 Week 5 Point Spread (Rams 26 Seahawks 17)

• Rams -1.0
• Seahawks +1.0

2021 Week 6 Point Spread (Rams 38 Giants 11)

• Rams -11.0
• Giants +11.0

2021 Week 7 Point Spread (Rams 28 Lions 19)

• Lions +15.5
• Rams -15.5

2021 Week 8 Point Spread

• Rams -14.5
• Texans +14.5

So what can we tell from the data over the past two seasons? Well, the Rams have been double-digit favorites in four games, and the outcomes of the three decided game finds that the Rams have won twice, but covered the spread just once. Of course, if you want to take an optimistic perspective, the lone game where the Rams won and covered was the lone road game, where the Rams defeated the New York Giants by a score of 38-11.

Since the shellacking that the defense suffered at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals, giving up 37 points, the Rams defense has settled in against less potent offenses, averaging just 18 points per game. At the same time, the offense has averaged over 30 points per game in the last three contests.

I love the Rams’ chances to win in Week 8. But if the Rams have a double-digit lead in the second half, head coach Sean McVay will not hesitate to pull the starters and give them a rest if the game is anywhere close to out of hand. But even as the Rams enter the game knowing that they will ease off the accelerator as soon as they can, the Texans enter the game with complete abandon. Much like the game plan of the Detroit Lions, the Rams face a team with nothing to lose, and so will be very unpredictable.

It’s not about fear. It’s not even about the risk of losing. It’s about respecting an opponent, and the LA Rams need to approach Week 8 as though their season depends on it. Can they do that? It’s hard to say. The Texans do not appear to be, on paper, much of a challenge. But then again, neither were the winless Jets in 2020.