LA Rams often fail to cover spread as huge home favorite

The LA Rams need to win this game in Week 13. Winning has proven to be very elusive for this team, particularly in the throes of a three-game losing streak. But over the course of an NFL season, teams get hot and cold, win consecutive games, but lose consecutive games. It’s the natural ebb and flow and is one of the reasons why losing your mind over a loss or two is a bit overdramatic.

Good teams lose games too. Starting out this season, the hope was that the LA Rams might win 12 games by the season’s end. At one point, the team sat at 7-1 and getting to 12-5 merely meant that the team would need to play just 5-4 for the remainder of the season. Now, after a three-game losing streak, that has suddenly become 5-1 for the remainder of the season.  Still doable? Yes. But less likely.

In Week 13, the Rams are heavily favored to win at home. While that may calm the fears and concerns of some, it does nothing but mount worries for others. You see, the LA Rams are notoriously bad at covering the spread at home when the odds grow more in favor of the home team. What do I mean? Well, just look at the past two years of regular season odds for the Rams to see what I mean:

Rams Schedule: 2020-2021

2020 Week 1 Point Spread (Rams 20 Cowboys 17)

• Cowboys -2.5
• Rams +2.5

2020 Week 2 Point Spread (Rams 37 Eagles 19)

• Rams +3.5
• Eagles -3.5

2020 Week 3 Point Spread (Bills 35 Rams 32)

• Rams +3.0
• Bills -3.0

2020 Week 4 Point Spread (Rams 17 Giants 9) *

• Giants +9.0
• Rams -9.0

2020 Week 5 Point Spread (Rams 30 Washington 10) *

• Washington +9.5
• Rams -9.5

2020 Week 6 Point Spread (49ers 24 Rams 16)

• Rams +3.0
• 49ers -3.0

2020 Week 7 Point Spread (Rams 24 Bears 10) *

• Bears +7.0
• Rams -7.0

2020 Week 8 Point Spread (Dolphins 28 Rams 17)

• Rams -3.5
• Dolphins +3.5

2020 Week 10 Point Spread (Rams 23 Seahawks 16)

• Seahawks +2.0
• Rams -2.0

2020 Week 11 Point Spread (Rams 27, Buccaneers 24)

• Rams +3.5
• Buccaneers -3.5

2020 Week 12 Point Spread (49ers 23 Rams 20) *

• 49ers +7.0
• Rams -7.0

2020 Week 13 Point Spread (Rams 38 Cardinals 28)

• Rams +1.0
• Cardinals -1.0

2020 Week 14 Point Spread (Rams 24 Patriots 3)

• Patriots +6.5
• Rams -6.5

2020 Week 15 Point Spread (Jets 23 Rams 20) *

• Jets +16.5
• Rams -16.5

2020 Week 16 Point Spread (Seahawks 20 Rams 9)

• Rams +2.0
• Seahawks -2.0

2020 Week 17 Point Spread (Rams 18 Cardinals 7)

• Rams +1.0
• Cardinals -1.0

2021 Week 1 Point Spread (Rams 34 Bears 14) *

• Bears +7.5
• Rams -7.5

2021 Week 2 Point Spread (Rams 27 Colts 24)

• Rams -4.5
• Colts +4.5

2021 Week 3 Point Spread (Rams 34 Buccaneers 24)

• Buccaneers -1.0
• Rams +1.0

2021 Week 4 Point Spread (Cardinals 37 Rams 20)

• Cardinals +5.0
• Rams -5.0

2021 Week 5 Point Spread (Rams 26 Seahawks 17)

• Rams -1.0
• Seahawks +1.0

2021 Week 6 Point Spread (Rams 38 Giants 11) *

• Rams -11.0
• Giants +11.0

2021 Week 7 Point Spread (Rams 28 Lions 19) *

• Lions  +15.5
• Rams -15.5

2021 Week 8 Point Spread (Rams 38 Texans 22)

• Rams -14.5
• Texans +14.5

2021 Week 9 Point Spread (Titans 28 Rams 16) *

• Titans +7.5
• Rams -7.5

2021 Week 10 Point Spread (49ers 31 Rams 10)

• Rams -4.0
• 49ers +4.0

2021 Week 12 Point Spread (Packers 36 Rams 28)

• Rams +1.0
• Packers -1.0

2021 Week 13 Point Spread *

• Jaguars +13.0
• Rams -13.0

In the past two seasons, the LA Rams have been favored at home by a spread of 7.0 points or more 10 times. So far, the Rams record in those games is 6-3, with the final game to be decided in Week 13. But what have the Rams done with the betting spread? Well, that is a different story altogether. So far, the Rams are 4-5 when factoring in the spread when they are favored by a touchdown or more.

After all, isn’t that what the spread is intended to do? Oddsmakers set the spread to balance out the probability of winning for either side as close to 50/50 as possible. It would seem that they have mastered their trade when creating such odds for the Rams. So far this season, the LA Rams are 2-2 when factoring in the betting odds.