The LA Rams are 7-0 when OLB Justin Hollins plays

Among some of the more bizarre facts about the LA Rams in the 2021 NFL season, perhaps the most befuddling one is the benefit to the outcome of games whenever outside linebacker Justin Hollins is on the football field. Hollins was injured after Week 3 and did not return to action until Week 14. So far, so good right?

Well, when he was placed on IR, the LA Rams were 3-0.  Since he has returned in Week 14, the LA Rams have gone on another winning streak, currently at 4-0.  (The Rams defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars period to Hollins’ return, making their current winning streak to 5-0) So doing the math, the LA Rams are 7-0 when Justin Hollins plays. But when he does not? The team has stumbled to a 5-4 record.

Now, before you take offense, nobody here is trying to establish a cause-and-effect relationship over the two unrelated events. Well, almost unrelated. But the coincidence is a bit uncanny.

It’s the risk of statistics and data and is why even the most trained mathematicians and statisticians can be wrong sometimes.

Data is not always related

Whenever examining numerical data, the relationship between that data can be causal – the occurrence of the first datum causes the other datum. Or the relationship can be correlative. That is, one datum acts in a similar fashion as the other datum. Correlative can be positive – moving in the same direction, negative – moving in the opposite direction, or non-correlated – not moving is a detectable similar pattern.

It’s fun to discover little easter eggs like this when examining the LA Rams season. But the reality is that it’s just that, a fun coincidence.

So far this season, Hollins has started two games, has accounted for 22 tackles, two quarterback sacks, one tackle for a loss, four quarterback pressures and one quarterback hit. Those are promising statistics for a player who has played 213 defensive snaps. But it’s not the type of production that results in seven wins.

Sometimes we take life a bit too seriously.  The LA Rams are 12-4, and regardless of the outcome in Week 18, they will need to win their next four consecutive games afterward to win Super Bowl LVI.  Will playing Justin Hollins help the Rams hoist the Lombardi Trophy at SoFi Stadium? Perhaps. But along the way of analysis and forecasting, it’s just as important to enjoy the ride and laugh along the way.