Looks like LA Rams have taught NFL teams the true value of draft picks

Do you consider LA Rams General Manager Les Snead to be an NFL pioneer? Do you appreciate the fact that the Rams organization has marched to the beat of their own drummer, and that their methods of roster building were not only unique in this league but had resulted in far more successful results than their peers? Now, would you believe that the basic premise for their success has been a staple of economics for many years?

In economics, you learn Gresham’s law: “Bad money drives good money out of circulation.” What in the hell does that have to do with the LA Rams? Well, simply stated, the LA Rams have taught the entire NFL that Gresham’s law applies to professional football as well.

Huh?

Okay, let me back that up. For years and years, NFL teams believed that of the two, first-round draft picks were far more valuable than their equivalent in terms of veteran players. But the LA Rams operated on a far different value system. The Rams, after assessing the risks that are inherited in the NFL Draft, concluded that the more productive use of first-round draft picks is to trade them, and their risks, to other teams for true NFL veterans who are game-changers.

The LA Rams understand their market

The Rams traded two first-round picks to the Jacksonville Jaguars for All-Pro DB Jalen Ramsey. They traded another trio of picks, two first-rounders, plus QB Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions for QB Matthew Stafford. By rights, if those trades were even-steven, either the Jaguars or the Lions will eventually end up with players of equal or greater value from the draft.

Don’t bet on it.

The LA Rams are seasoned hands at trading first-round picks and somewhat mastered the technique through trial and error. In fact, in many ways, the team had cornered the market in accurately estimating the less-than-the-consensus appraised value of first-rounders. Well, that market just went public, and a lot of NFL teams are happy to trade picks for premium players.

So what?

We’d talked about how the LA Rams wither in bidding wars.  Far too many teams are delighted to overspend, as it illustrates that the GM is attempting to build the team’s roster, possibly adding 1-3 years to his career with the team.

While the Rams often lose out in free agency, their greater understanding of the value of players compared to picks allowed them to shop the NFL trade market with little competition. The Rams were like curators shopping for masterpieces or antiques at garage sales. They hold a far greater appreciation of the value than anyone else.

But now? Those same loose pursestrings that drive the price of free agents out of the LA Rams price range will likely now do the same for the NFL Trade market. Even if the Rams do not have any direct competition, will the Rams still be able to trade for a game-changer if their trade partner does not value picks as much any longer?

So back to Gresham’s law. NFL Draft picks are currently the ‘bad money.’ As more and more teams dangle multiple-draft picks in exchange for players, the value of veteran players will go up and the value of picks will go down. So draft picks, a.k.a. bad money, will be exchanged for veteran players, a.k.a. good money. Eventually, teams will be willing to trade picks, but no team will be willing to part with top-tier players.

But have no fear. We have already begun to speculate about what the LA Rams will do next. And you wouldn’t believe me if I told you.